AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -14.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.0%. The strategy executed 17 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
AGG Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.29% | 3.61% | 1.47% | -0.29% | 1.66% | 1.42% | 1.80% | 3.02% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.86 | 0.94 | 0.34 | -0.05 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.76% | -2.76% | -4.95% | -17.82% | -9.58% | -18.43% | -14.70% | -18.43% |
| % Time Invested | 99.2% | 100.0% | 69.2% | 100.0% | 69.3% | 100.0% | 76.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-02-25 | 2025-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-04 | 2025-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $89.42 | $93.31 | 4.30% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-22 | 2024-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-07 | 2023-08-22 | Completed | 100% | $87.46 | $85.25 | -2.58% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-10 | 2023-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-04 | 2022-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $99.73 | $96.53 | -3.26% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-20 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 100% | $85.38 | $97.48 | 14.12% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-05 | 2018-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-29 | 2018-11-05 | Completed | 100% | $84.42 | $83.43 | -1.22% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-14 | 2018-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-25 | 2018-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $84.23 | $83.43 | -0.99% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-08 | 2017-05-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-02 | 2016-12-08 | Completed | 100% | $81.61 | $82.37 | 0.89% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-08 | 2016-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-16 | 2016-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $81.33 | $80.94 | -0.52% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-07 | 2015-10-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-01-28 | 2015-07-07 | Completed | 100% | $76.34 | $80.28 | 5.11% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-24 | 2014-01-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-05-04 | 2013-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $70.15 | $74.33 | 5.91% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-09 | 2011-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-12-31 | 2011-02-09 | Completed | 100% | $63.05 | $68.12 | 7.98% | Signal | |
| 2008-10-13 | 2008-12-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-09-03 | 2008-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $59.95 | $54.03 | -9.93% | Signal | |
| 2008-08-07 | 2008-09-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-09-05 | 2008-08-07 | Completed | 100% | $56.28 | $58.98 | 4.73% | Signal | |
| 2007-08-13 | 2007-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-07-17 | 2007-08-13 | Completed | 100% | $52.47 | $55.45 | 5.62% | Signal | |
| 2006-04-25 | 2006-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-01-17 | 2006-04-25 | Completed | 100% | $52.98 | $52.26 | -1.42% | Signal | |
| 2005-12-07 | 2006-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-09-22 | 2005-12-07 | Completed | 100% | $52.76 | $52.24 | -1.04% | Signal | |
| 2005-09-20 | 2005-09-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |