BCI
abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BCI (abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Trading context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -32.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.0%. The strategy executed 69 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Available in Investing Mode
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
Available in Investing Mode
BCI Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 28.94% | 33.89% | 8.88% | 10.37% | 7.93% | 7.95% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 | 1.67 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.69 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.77% | -14.82% | -18.35% | -26.50% | -18.35% | -32.69% |
| % Time Invested | 87.7% | 100.0% | 79.1% | 100.0% | 81.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 5.0 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-15 | 2025-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.37 | $18.14 | -1.31% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-27 | 2025-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.91% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-09-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-24 | 2025-08-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.00 | $17.55 | -2.58% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.69 | $17.62 | -0.44% | Signal | |
| 2025-07-16 | 2025-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-24 | 2025-07-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.00 | $18.14 | 0.71% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-06 | 2025-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.62 | $17.89 | 7.57% | Signal | |
| 2025-05-30 | 2025-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.84 | $17.49 | -2.02% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-11 | 2025-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-04-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.20 | $17.38 | 1.00% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-15 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.80 | $17.29 | -2.90% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-11 | 2025-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.95 | $18.18 | 7.24% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-11 | 2025-01-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024-12-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-10-04 | 2024-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.38 | $16.95 | -2.54% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-30 | 2024-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.33 | $16.78 | 2.70% | Signal | |
| 2024-07-12 | 2024-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-20 | 2024-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-08 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.93 | $16.00 | -5.55% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-03 | 2024-07-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.79 | $16.87 | 0.44% | Signal | |
| 2024-06-10 | 2024-06-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.12 | $17.20 | 0.44% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-16 | 2024-06-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.22 | $17.30 | 6.61% | Signal | |
| 2023-12-08 | 2024-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-17 | 2024-04-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-17 | 2024-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-05 | 2023-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.13 | $16.01 | -6.58% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-31 | 2023-11-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.96 | $16.47 | -2.92% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-24 | 2023-10-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.10 | $16.91 | -1.17% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-18 | 2023-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.32 | $16.52 | -4.66% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-24 | 2023-09-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-04 | 2023-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-22 | 2023-08-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.47 | $16.69 | 1.31% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-04 | 2023-07-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-09 | 2023-06-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-12 | 2023-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.98 | $16.42 | -3.35% | Signal | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.91 | $16.05 | -5.15% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.91 | $16.05 | -5.15% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-04 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-22 | 2023-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-10 | 2023-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-02 | 2023-02-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.23 | $16.91 | -1.91% | Signal | |
| 2022-12-12 | 2023-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-16 | 2023-01-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.51 | $17.11 | -2.38% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-12 | 2022-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.76% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-11 | 2022-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.27 | $17.54 | -4.06% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-20 | 2022-11-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-08 | 2022-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.92 | $17.78 | -0.87% | Signal | |
| 2022-08-02 | 2022-09-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.26 | $18.04 | -1.25% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-23 | 2022-09-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-19 | 2022-08-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.73 | $19.10 | 7.66% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-23 | 2022-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-24 | 2022-07-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-07 | 2022-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.25 | $18.56 | -3.65% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-07 | 2022-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.25 | $19.06 | -1.05% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-07 | 2022-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.25 | $19.06 | -1.05% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-27 | 2022-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.40 | $18.44 | 12.43% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-03 | 2022-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.33 | $18.44 | 20.25% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-30 | 2022-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.68 | $18.44 | 72.57% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2022-01-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-17 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-16 | 2021-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.95 | $14.58 | 46.37% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-16 | 2021-11-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.25 | $15.91 | 4.28% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-24 | 2021-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.98 | $14.47 | -3.45% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-07 | 2021-07-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-21 | 2021-07-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.41 | $14.37 | 7.10% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-26 | 2021-04-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-20 | 2021-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.39 | $13.00 | 14.08% | Signal | |
| 2020-09-28 | 2020-10-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-28 | 2020-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.75 | $10.96 | 12.38% | Signal | |
| 2020-02-24 | 2020-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-11 | 2020-06-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-05 | 2020-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-23 | 2020-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $9.75 | $9.65 | -1.01% | Signal | |
| 2020-01-29 | 2020-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-18 | 2020-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.12 | $11.60 | -4.29% | Signal | |
| 2019-10-11 | 2020-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.03 | $11.54 | -4.14% | Signal | |
| 2019-12-23 | 2020-01-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.35 | $11.78 | -4.69% | Signal | |
| 2019-11-29 | 2019-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-06 | 2019-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.41 | $11.97 | -3.59% | Signal | |
| 2019-06-21 | 2019-11-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-15 | 2019-11-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-12 | 2019-10-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.97 | $12.07 | 0.81% | Signal | |
| 2019-08-22 | 2019-10-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-08-05 | 2019-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-07-30 | 2019-08-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.12 | $11.77 | -2.92% | Signal | |
| 2019-06-28 | 2019-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.28 | $11.71 | -4.71% | Signal | |
| 2019-05-16 | 2019-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-01 | 2019-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-03 | 2019-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.18 | $12.12 | -0.58% | Signal | |
| 2019-02-28 | 2019-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.35 | $12.23 | -1.06% | Signal | |
| 2018-07-24 | 2019-05-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.80% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-25 | 2019-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.16 | $12.25 | 0.71% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-30 | 2019-02-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-10 | 2018-11-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.13 | $12.40 | -5.65% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-28 | 2018-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.78 | $12.63 | -1.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-07-09 | 2018-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-29 | 2018-09-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-14 | 2018-08-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.59 | $12.58 | -0.09% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-18 | 2018-08-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-12 | 2018-07-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.21 | $12.57 | -4.88% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-07-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.47 | $12.95 | -3.95% | Signal | |
| 2018-04-19 | 2018-06-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.53 | $13.37 | -1.20% | Signal | |
| 2018-03-26 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-27 | 2018-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-14 | 2018-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.13 | $13.07 | -0.50% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-12 | 2018-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.90 | $13.08 | 1.31% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-20 | 2018-03-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-29 | 2018-02-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.13 | $13.69 | 4.24% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-19 | 2018-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-12 | 2018-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.21 | $13.25 | 0.23% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-19 | 2018-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-19 | 2018-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-06 | 2017-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-05 | 2017-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.56 | $12.64 | 0.58% | Stop | |
| 2017-10-05 | 2017-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.56 | $12.64 | 0.58% | Stop | |
| 2017-11-02 | 2017-12-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.98 | $12.70 | -2.25% | Signal | |
| 2017-10-11 | 2017-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-05 | 2017-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.56 | $12.61 | 0.36% | Signal | |
| 2017-10-03 | 2017-10-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-03 | 2017-10-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-03 | 2017-10-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |