BIV Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BIV (Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -7.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.6%. The strategy executed 34 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BIV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.61% | 5.10% | 2.85% | 0.37% | 3.24% | 1.98% | 3.92% | 3.58% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.51 | 1.23 | 0.95 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.99 | 0.66 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.26% | -3.17% | -4.63% | -18.74% | -5.65% | -18.94% | -7.22% | -18.94% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.8% | 100.0% | 82.1% | 100.0% | 88.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $73.75 | $76.85 | 4.20% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $72.63 | $76.85 | 5.81% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.78 | $77.28 | 6.18% | Signal |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-17 | 2025-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.54 | $72.47 | 7.29% | Signal |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.63 | $70.86 | -2.44% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-08 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.80 | $68.47 | -0.48% | Signal |
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-04-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.22% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.47% | Interest Income |
| 2023-08-09 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.12 | $66.22 | -1.35% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-13 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.93 | $66.65 | -0.41% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.67% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-08 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-10-13 | 2022-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.65 | $73.24 | -3.18% | Signal |
| 2020-04-08 | 2022-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.69 | $74.63 | 2.66% | Signal |
| 2021-11-19 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-22 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.84 | $75.62 | -1.58% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-10-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-12 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.69 | $74.69 | 2.75% | Signal |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.13% | Interest Income |
| 2021-02-11 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.03 | $75.57 | -1.89% | Signal |
| 2021-01-20 | 2021-02-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.69 | $76.92 | 5.81% | Signal |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-07 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.21 | $72.09 | 14.06% | Stop |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.80 | $72.09 | 14.80% | Stop |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.80 | $72.09 | 14.80% | Stop |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-30 | 2018-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.80 | $62.43 | -0.59% | Signal |
| 2018-02-22 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2017-12-12 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.99% | Interest Income |
| 2017-09-05 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-11 | 2018-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.30 | $62.37 | -3.01% | Signal |
| 2017-05-09 | 2017-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.95 | $64.16 | 1.92% | Signal |
| 2014-04-14 | 2017-09-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.76 | $64.78 | 12.15% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-08-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-05-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-01-27 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-25 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income |
| 2015-12-31 | 2017-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.61 | $61.93 | 2.17% | Signal |
| 2015-10-14 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.52 | $62.27 | 1.22% | Signal |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-12-31 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-12 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-13 | 2015-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.18 | $61.22 | 7.06% | Signal |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-06 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-02 | 2015-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.43 | $60.30 | 6.87% | Signal |
| 2014-04-02 | 2014-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-04 | 2014-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-03-04 | 2014-03-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-03-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-03-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-09 | 2014-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-18 | 2014-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.13 | $56.00 | -0.22% | Signal |
| 2013-12-03 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.07 | $55.33 | -4.73% | Stop |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.46 | $55.33 | -3.71% | Stop |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.46 | $55.33 | -3.71% | Stop |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.46 | $57.43 | -0.05% | Signal |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2012-07-03 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2011-07-05 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.97 | $56.50 | 10.86% | Stop |
| 2011-02-23 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.19 | $56.50 | 14.87% | Stop |
| 2009-04-02 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.98 | $56.50 | 34.60% | Stop |
| 2011-04-29 | 2011-07-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2011-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.98 | $50.08 | 19.31% | Signal |
| 2011-01-24 | 2011-02-23 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-02 | 2011-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.88 | $49.14 | 14.61% | Signal |
| 2009-06-09 | 2009-07-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.98 | $41.83 | -0.35% | Signal |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |