BIV
Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BIV (Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -9.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.5%. The strategy executed 11 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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BIV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.89% | 2.73% | 1.59% | -0.22% | 2.03% | 1.62% | 3.15% | 3.48% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 | 0.67 | 0.36 | -0.03 | 0.48 | 0.29 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| Max Drawdown | -3.17% | -3.17% | -5.44% | -18.74% | -9.16% | -18.94% | -9.16% | -18.94% |
| % Time Invested | 90.9% | 100.0% | 65.1% | 100.0% | 69.8% | 100.0% | 76.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-02-21 | 2025-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-04 | 2025-02-21 | Completed | 100% | $68.61 | $71.08 | 3.55% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-22 | 2024-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-06 | 2023-08-22 | Completed | 100% | $66.97 | $65.29 | -2.55% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-24 | 2023-02-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-11-24 | Completed | 100% | $76.84 | $74.23 | -3.45% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-08 | 2021-08-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2021-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $62.75 | $74.17 | 18.14% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-09 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2018-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $62.35 | $61.88 | -0.80% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-26 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-06-02 | 2018-01-26 | Completed | 100% | $63.55 | $63.01 | -0.90% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-07 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 100% | $60.79 | $61.94 | 1.83% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-13 | 2015-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-02-06 | 2015-07-13 | Completed | 100% | $56.69 | $59.44 | 4.80% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-26 | 2014-02-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-05-09 | 2013-06-26 | Completed | 100% | $50.28 | $55.06 | 9.45% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-08 | 2011-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2011-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $41.67 | $48.18 | 15.54% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |