BIV
Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BIV (Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -7.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.5%. The strategy executed 35 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BIV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.84% | 2.73% | 2.45% | -0.22% | 2.75% | 1.62% | 3.70% | 3.48% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.12 | 0.67 | 0.85 | -0.03 | 0.87 | 0.29 | 0.95 | 0.65 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.29% | -3.17% | -4.70% | -18.74% | -5.45% | -18.94% | -7.23% | -18.94% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 70.8% | 100.0% | 82.1% | 100.0% | 88.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.25 | $76.72 | 6.13% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-17 | 2025-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.05 | $71.94 | 7.23% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.11 | $70.35 | -2.49% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-08 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.30 | $67.97 | -0.53% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-04-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-09 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.64 | $65.74 | -1.40% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-08 | 2023-08-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-13 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.45 | $66.17 | -0.46% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-19 | 2023-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-13 | 2022-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.10 | $72.71 | -3.23% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2022-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.17 | $74.08 | 2.61% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-22 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.28 | $75.08 | -1.63% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-12 | 2021-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.17 | $74.15 | 2.70% | Signal | |
| 2021-02-11 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.47 | $75.02 | -1.94% | Signal | |
| 2021-01-20 | 2021-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.17 | $76.36 | 5.76% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.75 | $71.57 | 14.01% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.35 | $71.57 | 14.74% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.35 | $71.57 | 14.74% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2018-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.35 | $61.98 | -0.64% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-22 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-09-05 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-11 | 2018-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.83 | $61.91 | -3.05% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-09 | 2017-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.49 | $63.69 | 1.87% | Signal | |
| 2014-04-14 | 2017-09-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.34 | $64.31 | 12.10% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-27 | 2017-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-25 | 2017-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2017-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.17 | $61.48 | 2.12% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-14 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.07 | $61.82 | 1.17% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-12 | 2015-12-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-06 | 2015-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-03-13 | 2015-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.77 | $60.77 | 7.01% | Signal | |
| 2013-12-02 | 2015-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.02 | $59.87 | 6.81% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-09 | 2014-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2014-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-18 | 2014-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.72 | $55.60 | -0.27% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.65 | $54.92 | -4.77% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.04 | $54.92 | -3.76% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.04 | $54.92 | -3.76% | Stop | |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.04 | $57.01 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-05 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.60 | $56.09 | 10.80% | Stop | |
| 2011-02-23 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.83 | $56.09 | 14.81% | Stop | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.67 | $56.09 | 34.53% | Stop | |
| 2011-04-29 | 2011-07-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2011-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.67 | $49.72 | 19.25% | Signal | |
| 2011-01-24 | 2011-02-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-02 | 2011-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.57 | $48.79 | 14.55% | Signal | |
| 2009-06-09 | 2009-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.67 | $41.53 | -0.40% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |