BIV
Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-09-04
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BIV (Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -7.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -18.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.5%. The strategy executed 35 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available
Compare quantitative moving average overlays for BIV:
Excess Return MMA Active Model
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Trading Horizon
Select risk profile & execution style for BIV:
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
🛡️ BIV Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection
Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →Peak Drawdown Defense
-7.2% (vs -18.9% B&H)
+11.7% shallower drawdown
Downside Efficiency
1.22 Sortino
+0.31 vs 0.91 B&H
Capital Sheltered from Risk
26.5% of Time
Earning Treasury yield during downturns
* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.
📊 BIV Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| Max Drawdown | -2.29% | -3.17% | -4.70% | -18.36% | -5.34% | -18.94% | -7.23% | -18.94% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.50 | 0.08 | 0.87 | -0.02 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 0.95 | 0.64 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.85 | 0.13 | 1.15 | -0.04 | 1.07 | 0.40 | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| CAGR | 1.57% | 0.32% | 2.53% | -0.15% | 2.71% | 1.57% | 3.69% | 3.46% |
| % Time Invested | 83.5% | 100.0% | 48.6% | 100.0% | 62.4% | 100.0% | 73.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
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Explore Correlation Across Horizons →Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.
| Diversifier Asset | Category | 1Y Correlation (r) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
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Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.66 | $75.72 | 4.16% | Signal | |
| 2026-03-09 | 2026-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-24 | 2026-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.71 | $76.14 | 6.13% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-20 | 2025-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-17 | 2025-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.55 | $71.40 | 7.23% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.56 | $69.82 | -2.49% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-08 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $67.78 | $67.46 | -0.53% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-04-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.88% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-09 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.13 | $65.24 | -1.40% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-08 | 2023-08-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-13 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.95 | $65.67 | -0.46% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-19 | 2023-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-13 | 2022-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.53 | $72.16 | -3.23% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2022-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.62 | $73.53 | 2.61% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-22 | 2021-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.71 | $74.51 | -1.63% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-12 | 2021-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.62 | $73.59 | 2.70% | Signal | |
| 2021-02-11 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.89 | $74.46 | -1.94% | Signal | |
| 2021-01-20 | 2021-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-08 | 2021-01-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.62 | $75.78 | 5.76% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.27 | $71.03 | 14.01% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.88 | $71.03 | 14.74% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.88 | $71.03 | 14.74% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2018-11-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.88 | $61.51 | -0.64% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-22 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-12 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-09-05 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-11 | 2018-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.35 | $61.45 | -3.05% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-09 | 2017-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.02 | $63.21 | 1.87% | Signal | |
| 2014-04-14 | 2017-09-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.91 | $63.83 | 12.10% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-27 | 2017-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-25 | 2017-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-31 | 2017-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.72 | $61.02 | 2.12% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-14 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.61 | $61.35 | 1.17% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-12 | 2015-12-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-06 | 2015-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-03-13 | 2015-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.34 | $60.31 | 7.01% | Signal | |
| 2013-12-02 | 2015-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.60 | $59.42 | 6.81% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-09 | 2014-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2014-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-18 | 2014-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.30 | $55.18 | -0.27% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $57.21 | $54.51 | -4.77% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.61 | $54.51 | -3.76% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.61 | $54.51 | -3.76% | Stop | |
| 2013-03-08 | 2013-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-20 | 2013-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.61 | $56.58 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-27 | 2012-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-07-05 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.22 | $55.67 | 10.80% | Stop | |
| 2011-02-23 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.46 | $55.67 | 14.81% | Stop | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2012-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.36 | $55.67 | 34.53% | Stop | |
| 2011-04-29 | 2011-07-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2011-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.36 | $49.35 | 19.25% | Signal | |
| 2011-01-24 | 2011-02-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-02 | 2011-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.25 | $48.42 | 14.55% | Signal | |
| 2009-06-09 | 2009-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-02 | 2009-06-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.36 | $41.21 | -0.40% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |