EMLC
VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for EMLC (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -32.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -0.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 0.5%. The strategy executed 12 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
EMLC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.93% | 5.93% | 0.61% | 1.86% | 2.11% | 1.88% | -0.26% | 0.46% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.19 | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| Max Drawdown | -6.20% | -6.20% | -14.91% | -23.49% | -16.76% | -26.37% | -28.62% | -32.33% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 67.1% | 100.0% | 72.0% | 100.0% | 66.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2024-11-26 | 2025-06-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2024-11-26 | Completed | 100% | $20.61 | $21.42 | 3.86% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-04 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $20.71 | $20.81 | 0.46% | Signal | |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-06 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $22.64 | $20.10 | -11.28% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-29 | 2021-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-09-29 | Completed | 100% | $19.15 | $21.88 | 14.18% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-04 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $21.47 | $20.53 | -4.42% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-28 | 2019-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018-11-28 | Completed | 100% | $20.01 | $20.85 | 4.15% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-14 | 2018-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-22 | 2018-08-14 | Completed | 100% | $20.11 | $20.77 | 3.26% | Stop | |
| 2015-12-11 | 2016-12-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-11 | Completed | 100% | $19.76 | $18.41 | -6.87% | Stop | |
| 2014-12-08 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-12-08 | Completed | 100% | $23.90 | $22.41 | -6.29% | Stop | |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-18 | 2014-02-04 | Completed | 100% | $23.58 | $22.15 | -6.08% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-26 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 100% | $24.38 | $22.99 | -5.78% | Stop | |
| 2012-09-04 | 2012-09-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-17 | 2012-09-04 | Completed | 100% | $23.63 | $23.97 | 1.38% | Signal | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |