EMLC
VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for EMLC (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -22.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -32.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 0.5%. The strategy executed 51 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
EMLC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.56% | 5.93% | 2.60% | 1.86% | 2.12% | 1.88% | 0.66% | 0.46% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.79 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Max Drawdown | -6.20% | -6.20% | -7.98% | -23.49% | -10.12% | -26.37% | -22.88% | -32.33% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.7% | 100.0% | 84.0% | 100.0% | 77.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-21 | 2026-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.42 | $24.78 | 10.50% | Signal | |
| 2025-02-21 | 2025-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-11-21 | 2025-06-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-19 | 2025-04-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-01-15 | 2025-02-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.20 | $21.87 | 3.10% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-19 | 2025-01-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-07-12 | 2024-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.50 | $21.14 | -1.75% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-12 | 2024-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.50 | $21.14 | -1.75% | Stop | |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.70 | $21.43 | -5.64% | Signal | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-09-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-05 | 2024-09-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.61 | $21.95 | 6.42% | Signal | |
| 2024-06-17 | 2024-07-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-07-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-18 | 2024-06-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.72 | $20.79 | 0.29% | Signal | |
| 2024-01-22 | 2024-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.42 | $20.83 | -2.82% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-21 | 2024-04-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2024-01-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.70% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-19 | 2023-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.77 | $21.26 | 7.46% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-29 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.31 | $20.00 | -1.54% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-17 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.27 | $20.00 | -1.34% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-01 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-10 | 2023-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-09-21 | 2023-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-23 | 2022-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.56 | $20.74 | -3.87% | Stop | |
| 2021-11-01 | 2021-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-24 | 2021-11-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.56 | $22.12 | -2.03% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.91 | $22.82 | -0.47% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-08-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.34 | $22.84 | 2.18% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-28 | 2021-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-31 | 2021-04-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.34 | $23.03 | 3.03% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-09 | 2021-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2021-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-14 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.27 | $22.59 | 1.39% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2021-03-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.38 | $22.59 | 0.87% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-03 | 2020-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.46 | $21.94 | 12.70% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.46 | $19.31 | -0.80% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-10 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.78 | $21.91 | -3.87% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-04 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.47 | $21.91 | 1.99% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-04 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.47 | $21.91 | 1.99% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-13 | 2019-12-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-04 | 2019-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.47 | $22.60 | 5.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-12 | 2019-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-07-11 | 2019-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-05 | 2019-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-25 | 2018-11-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.70 | $20.69 | -0.06% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-31 | 2018-09-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2018-08-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.99 | $20.32 | -7.63% | Stop | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2018-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.99 | $21.62 | -1.74% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2018-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.99 | $21.91 | -0.39% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-02-02 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.00 | $22.36 | -6.85% | Stop | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.13 | $22.36 | 1.02% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.25 | $22.36 | 10.41% | Stop | |
| 2017-12-20 | 2018-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2017-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.73 | $22.88 | 5.25% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-24 | 2017-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-09 | 2017-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-06 | 2017-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.99 | $21.22 | 6.07% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-06 | 2016-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.99 | $20.19 | 0.92% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-11 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-11 | 2016-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-11 | 2016-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-06-02 | 2016-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.92 | $19.76 | -0.87% | Stop | |
| 2016-04-05 | 2016-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.34 | $19.76 | -2.92% | Stop | |
| 2015-12-11 | 2016-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-11 | 2016-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.76 | $18.41 | -6.87% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.76 | $18.41 | -6.87% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.76 | $18.41 | -6.87% | Stop | |
| 2014-12-17 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-08 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-12-02 | 2014-12-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.99 | $21.36 | -7.17% | Stop | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-12-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.90 | $22.41 | -6.29% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2014-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-11-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.90 | $22.90 | -4.23% | Stop | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.90 | $23.41 | -2.08% | Signal | |
| 2014-01-28 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-01-17 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-08-08 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-12-04 | 2014-01-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.09 | $22.11 | -4.25% | Signal | |
| 2013-09-30 | 2014-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.38 | $22.76 | -2.67% | Stop | |
| 2013-06-03 | 2013-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-06 | 2013-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-09-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.99 | $22.35 | -2.83% | Stop | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.99 | $23.41 | 1.81% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-03 | 2013-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-03 | 2013-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-13 | 2013-06-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.59 | $24.45 | -0.60% | Stop | |
| 2012-09-06 | 2013-06-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.99 | $24.45 | 1.88% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-17 | 2013-06-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.63 | $24.45 | 3.42% | Stop | |
| 2012-08-10 | 2012-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-17 | 2012-08-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.63 | $24.12 | 2.02% | Signal | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |