EMLC
VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for EMLC (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -25.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -32.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -0.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 0.5%. The strategy executed 10 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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EMLC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.93% | 5.93% | 2.35% | 1.86% | 0.70% | 1.88% | -0.23% | 0.46% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.19 | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| Max Drawdown | -6.20% | -6.20% | -11.88% | -23.49% | -16.52% | -26.37% | -25.71% | -32.33% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 63.4% | 100.0% | 68.2% | 100.0% | 61.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-21 | 2024-12-31 | Completed | 100% | $21.76 | $21.11 | -3.06% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-13 | 2023-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-12 | 2023-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $20.29 | $19.98 | -1.60% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-09 | 2023-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-07 | 2021-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $23.76 | $22.90 | -3.67% | Signal | |
| 2021-04-29 | 2021-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-03 | 2021-04-29 | Completed | 100% | $22.33 | $23.10 | 3.38% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-08-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-04 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $21.47 | $20.53 | -4.42% | Stop | |
| 2018-06-01 | 2019-01-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-23 | 2018-06-01 | Completed | 100% | $21.61 | $21.99 | 1.70% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-13 | 2017-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-07 | 2016-12-13 | Completed | 100% | $20.17 | $20.29 | 0.53% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-11 | 2016-04-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-11 | Completed | 100% | $19.76 | $18.41 | -6.87% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-05 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-05-07 | 2014-11-05 | Completed | 100% | $23.90 | $23.14 | -3.24% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-25 | 2014-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-02 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 100% | $23.77 | $22.99 | -3.35% | Stop | |
| 2012-07-13 | 2012-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |