IAU
iShares Gold Trust
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IAU (iShares Gold Trust) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -38.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -45.1%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.4%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
IAU Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 20.10% | 21.10% | 10.00% | 17.06% | 6.78% | 11.37% | 5.62% | 9.37% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -26.43% | -26.36% | -26.43% | -26.36% | -35.52% | -26.36% | -38.90% | -45.14% |
| % Time Invested | 81.0% | 100.0% | 73.9% | 100.0% | 73.0% | 100.0% | 69.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-04 | 2026-03-20 | Completed | 100% | $38.72 | $87.69 | 126.36% | Stop | |
| 2023-09-29 | 2023-12-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.97% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-17 | 2023-09-29 | Completed | 100% | $36.34 | $35.49 | -2.39% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-07 | 2023-01-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-23 | 2022-07-07 | Completed | 100% | $36.14 | $33.09 | -8.49% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-31 | 2022-02-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-28 | 2022-01-31 | Completed | 100% | $34.48 | $34.16 | -0.98% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-03 | 2021-12-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-15 | 2021-12-03 | Completed | 100% | $35.45 | $33.70 | -4.98% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-09 | 2021-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $34.48 | $33.17 | -3.85% | Signal | |
| 2021-06-18 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-05-24 | 2021-06-18 | Completed | 100% | $35.82 | $33.79 | -5.71% | Stop | |
| 2021-02-18 | 2021-05-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-24 | 2021-02-18 | Completed | 100% | $24.54 | $33.94 | 38.24% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-25 | 2019-01-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-23 | 2018-06-25 | Completed | 100% | $24.30 | $24.30 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-22 | 2017-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-11-22 | Completed | 100% | $23.90 | $23.38 | -2.22% | Signal | |
| 2014-11-03 | 2016-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-15 | 2014-11-03 | Completed | 100% | $24.00 | $22.66 | -5.63% | Stop | |
| 2014-09-22 | 2014-10-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-07-08 | 2014-09-22 | Completed | 100% | $25.64 | $23.50 | -8.39% | Signal | |
| 2014-05-29 | 2014-07-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-02-19 | 2014-05-29 | Completed | 100% | $25.62 | $24.30 | -5.20% | Signal | |
| 2013-02-25 | 2014-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2013-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $31.72 | $30.84 | -2.82% | Signal | |
| 2012-04-18 | 2012-06-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-01-25 | 2012-04-18 | Completed | 100% | $32.32 | $32.00 | -1.04% | Signal | |
| 2011-12-30 | 2012-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-19 | 2011-12-30 | Completed | 100% | $32.30 | $30.52 | -5.56% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-27 | 2011-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-02-12 | 2011-09-27 | Completed | 100% | $18.62 | $32.38 | 73.79% | Stop | |
| 2009-01-13 | 2009-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-12-17 | 2009-01-13 | Completed | 100% | $17.05 | $16.21 | -4.97% | Stop | |
| 2008-08-12 | 2008-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-05-27 | 2008-08-12 | Completed | 100% | $17.97 | $16.14 | -10.22% | Stop | |
| 2008-05-02 | 2008-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-01 | 2008-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $13.33 | $16.80 | 25.97% | Stop | |
| 2007-02-27 | 2007-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |