IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-12
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IEF (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -7.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -23.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.3%. The strategy executed 52 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
IEF Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.45% | 3.39% | 1.43% | -1.18% | 2.11% | 0.58% | 3.74% | 3.29% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 | 0.71 | 0.48 | -0.15 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.73 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.46% | -4.07% | -5.79% | -21.40% | -6.50% | -23.92% | -7.67% | -23.92% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 59.2% | 100.0% | 71.8% | 100.0% | 83.4% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $93.91 | $94.18 | 0.29% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-12-11 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $94.83 | $94.18 | -0.68% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-21 | Open | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-02-12 | 2026-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.98 | $93.16 | 1.28% | Signal |
| 2025-09-10 | 2026-02-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.32 | $95.17 | 0.90% | Signal |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-12-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.36 | $94.29 | 3.21% | Signal |
| 2025-04-23 | 2025-08-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.88 | $92.32 | 1.58% | Signal |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2025-01-08 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-16 | 2025-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.46% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2025-03-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.79 | $90.28 | -1.65% | Signal |
| 2024-08-05 | 2025-01-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.79 | $86.89 | -5.35% | Stop |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.79 | $88.63 | -3.45% | Signal |
| 2024-05-01 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.38% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-11 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.81% | Interest Income |
| 2021-10-04 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.85% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-26 | 2024-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.92 | $84.53 | -2.75% | Signal |
| 2023-07-10 | 2024-01-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.01% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-14 | 2023-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.81 | $85.25 | -1.79% | Signal |
| 2023-05-22 | 2023-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-21 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.20 | $87.45 | 2.64% | Signal |
| 2021-11-23 | 2023-02-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.70% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-08 | 2022-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.52 | $96.38 | -4.12% | Signal |
| 2021-07-30 | 2021-11-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.04 | $99.04 | -2.93% | Signal |
| 2021-02-01 | 2021-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2021-04-07 | 2021-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.36 | $100.36 | 2.03% | Signal |
| 2020-11-10 | 2021-07-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-15 | 2021-04-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2021-03-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.49 | $98.63 | 16.74% | Stop |
| 2018-11-20 | 2021-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.49 | $102.56 | 21.39% | Signal |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.78 | $102.93 | 2.13% | Signal |
| 2020-01-09 | 2020-03-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.49 | $94.65 | 12.03% | Signal |
| 2018-10-11 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2018-02-07 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income |
| 2017-07-10 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.27% | Interest Income |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.33 | $83.39 | -2.27% | Signal |
| 2017-11-27 | 2018-08-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2017-08-23 | 2018-02-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.44 | $84.23 | -3.67% | Signal |
| 2017-05-10 | 2017-11-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.57 | $86.75 | 1.38% | Signal |
| 2016-12-30 | 2017-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.53% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-19 | 2017-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.46 | $85.83 | 2.84% | Signal |
| 2016-11-14 | 2017-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-19 | 2016-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.46 | $84.04 | 0.70% | Signal |
| 2016-11-25 | 2016-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-25 | 2016-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2015-12-09 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.69 | $84.55 | 1.02% | Stop |
| 2014-11-03 | 2016-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $80.91 | $84.55 | 4.49% | Stop |
| 2015-10-01 | 2016-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.84 | $85.34 | 0.59% | Signal |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-04-22 | 2015-10-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.54 | $84.39 | 8.84% | Signal |
| 2015-06-24 | 2015-10-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-12 | 2015-06-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $76.25 | $81.84 | 7.32% | Signal |
| 2013-11-07 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2013-05-20 | 2014-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-10 | 2013-12-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-18 | 2013-11-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.21 | $77.30 | 0.13% | Signal |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-05-09 | 2013-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.05 | $76.15 | -6.04% | Signal |
| 2011-01-07 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.55 | $76.67 | 15.21% | Stop |
| 2011-08-01 | 2013-05-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $71.35 | $80.34 | 12.59% | Signal |
| 2013-02-22 | 2013-05-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-05-23 | 2013-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.21 | $79.47 | 14.83% | Signal |
| 2011-04-11 | 2011-08-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-14 | 2011-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-07 | 2011-04-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.55 | $66.16 | -0.58% | Signal |
| 2011-01-07 | 2011-01-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.55 | $67.28 | 1.10% | Signal |
| 2010-12-15 | 2011-01-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-12-15 | 2011-01-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-12-15 | 2011-01-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-04-28 | 2010-12-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.82 | $66.19 | 5.35% | Stop |
| 2009-11-16 | 2010-12-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.91 | $66.19 | 5.21% | Stop |
| 2009-06-17 | 2010-12-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.70 | $66.19 | 9.04% | Stop |
| 2010-03-01 | 2010-04-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2009-10-14 | 2010-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.59 | $62.92 | 0.53% | Signal |
| 2009-09-09 | 2009-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-26 | 2009-10-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2009-06-17 | 2009-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.70 | $61.80 | 1.82% | Signal |
| 2009-05-26 | 2009-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-05-26 | 2009-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2008-09-23 | 2009-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.44 | $61.78 | 5.72% | Stop |
| 2007-08-22 | 2009-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.13 | $61.78 | 18.50% | Stop |
| 2006-07-17 | 2009-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.12 | $61.78 | 28.38% | Stop |
| 2008-07-01 | 2008-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2007-08-22 | 2008-07-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.13 | $57.31 | 9.93% | Signal |
| 2007-06-18 | 2007-08-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.85% | Interest Income |
| 2007-06-05 | 2007-08-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income |
| 2006-07-17 | 2007-06-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.12 | $49.89 | 3.67% | Signal |
| 2007-05-16 | 2007-06-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.22 | $50.49 | -1.43% | Signal |
| 2007-03-13 | 2007-05-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.87% | Interest Income |
| 2006-07-17 | 2007-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.12 | $51.46 | 6.94% | Signal |
| 2005-12-20 | 2006-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.60% | Interest Income |
| 2005-11-21 | 2006-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.91% | Interest Income |
| 2005-10-03 | 2006-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.46% | Interest Income |
| 2004-07-26 | 2005-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.25 | $48.69 | 5.28% | Signal |
| 2005-08-26 | 2005-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.13 | $48.48 | -1.33% | Signal |
| 2005-05-19 | 2005-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.10 | $48.74 | -0.75% | Signal |
| 2005-08-01 | 2005-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income |
| 2004-11-02 | 2005-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.02 | $48.59 | 1.21% | Signal |
| 2005-02-22 | 2005-05-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income |
| 2004-09-13 | 2005-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.56 | $47.90 | 0.70% | Signal |
| 2004-09-08 | 2004-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2004-07-22 | 2004-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income |
| 2004-07-26 | 2004-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.25 | $47.16 | 1.97% | Signal |
| 2004-07-22 | 2004-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2004-07-22 | 2004-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |