MBB
iShares MBS ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for MBB (iShares MBS ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -5.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.1%. The strategy executed 3 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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MBB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.55% | 4.55% | 2.73% | 0.15% | 2.73% | 1.18% | 2.99% | 2.15% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.83 | 0.02 | 0.88 | 0.22 | 1.01 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.94% | -2.94% | -5.28% | -17.19% | -5.28% | -17.65% | -5.28% | -17.65% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 48.9% | 100.0% | 62.1% | 100.0% | 75.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2022-01-13 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.11 | 10.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-06 | 2022-01-13 | Completed | 100% | $83.13 | $90.59 | 8.93% | Signal | |
| 2017-09-12 | 2018-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-04-14 | 2017-09-12 | Completed | 100% | $76.71 | $83.51 | 8.81% | Signal | |
| 2013-10-29 | 2014-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-11 | 2013-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $64.33 | $76.00 | 18.07% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-09 | 2009-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |