MUB iShares National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for MUB (iShares National Muni Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -13.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.0%. The strategy executed 37 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
MUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 6.45% | 6.41% | 1.70% | 0.89% | 2.27% | 2.01% | 3.00% | 2.97% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.20 | 2.13 | 0.60 | 0.22 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.79% | -2.79% | -7.36% | -11.89% | -7.36% | -13.68% | -8.45% | -13.68% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 97.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $101.16 | $107.17 | 5.95% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2022-11-25 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $95.14 | $107.17 | 12.64% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.16 | $106.85 | 5.63% | Signal |
| 2024-12-16 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.54% | Interest Income |
| 2024-10-02 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.80% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.70 | $102.75 | 0.05% | Signal |
| 2024-09-04 | 2024-10-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-10 | 2024-09-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.53 | $102.29 | 2.77% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.07 | $100.41 | 0.33% | Signal |
| 2023-09-08 | 2024-04-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.06% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.15% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.14 | $96.69 | 1.62% | Signal |
| 2023-05-22 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.14 | $96.52 | 1.45% | Signal |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.62 | $91.55 | -5.24% | Stop |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.62 | $91.55 | -5.24% | Stop |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-13 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.68 | $93.85 | -0.89% | Signal |
| 2022-04-12 | 2022-05-05 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.51 | $96.49 | 1.03% | Stop |
| 2022-02-10 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-02-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.51 | $100.53 | 5.26% | Signal |
| 2021-11-04 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-06-11 | 2021-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.23 | $102.45 | -0.76% | Signal |
| 2021-05-19 | 2021-06-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-30 | 2021-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.26 | $102.31 | 3.08% | Signal |
| 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-29 | 2020-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.51 | $95.55 | 0.04% | Signal |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-02-11 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.66 | $94.99 | -3.72% | Stop |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.99 | $94.99 | 6.74% | Stop |
| 2018-05-07 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.55 | $94.99 | 7.28% | Stop |
| 2020-01-17 | 2020-02-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.99 | $98.06 | 10.19% | Signal |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2018-09-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.55 | $88.39 | -0.18% | Signal |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-09-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.70 | $88.83 | 0.15% | Signal |
| 2018-03-19 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2018-01-17 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2017-03-28 | 2018-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.80 | $88.31 | 1.73% | Signal |
| 2017-08-07 | 2018-02-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income |
| 2017-03-28 | 2018-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.80 | $89.34 | 2.93% | Signal |
| 2016-12-23 | 2017-08-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.46 | $89.15 | 4.32% | Signal |
| 2017-01-04 | 2017-03-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-10 | 2017-03-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-23 | 2017-01-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.46 | $85.76 | 0.35% | Signal |
| 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $84.27 | $84.38 | 0.13% | Stop |
| 2014-01-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.65 | $84.38 | 8.66% | Stop |
| 2015-07-27 | 2016-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.66 | $87.09 | 4.11% | Signal |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-14 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-09-17 | 2015-09-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.83 | $83.66 | 11.79% | Signal |
| 2015-07-02 | 2015-07-27 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-06-02 | 2015-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2013-09-17 | 2015-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.83 | $82.92 | 10.81% | Signal |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-01-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-03 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-11-12 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-16 | 2013-11-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.94 | $76.47 | 0.71% | Signal |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-07-16 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-21 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-21 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2013-03-20 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-26 | 2013-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.79 | $74.90 | 8.87% | Stop |
| 2011-01-06 | 2013-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.80 | $74.90 | 12.13% | Stop |
| 2011-04-26 | 2013-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.79 | $78.96 | 14.78% | Signal |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-02-16 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-04 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-06 | 2011-02-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.80 | $67.15 | 0.52% | Signal |
| 2011-01-04 | 2011-01-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-04 | 2011-01-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.71 | $66.40 | 1.06% | Stop |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.71 | $66.40 | 1.06% | Stop |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.71 | $66.40 | 1.06% | Stop |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |