MUB
iShares National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for MUB (iShares National Muni Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -13.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -13.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.9%. The strategy executed 12 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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MUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.24% | 5.30% | -0.96% | 0.48% | 0.53% | 1.79% | 2.11% | 2.88% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 | 1.74 | -0.28 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.79% | -2.79% | -7.96% | -11.80% | -13.68% | -13.68% | -13.68% | -13.68% |
| % Time Invested | 85.7% | 100.0% | 76.4% | 100.0% | 80.7% | 100.0% | 84.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-11 | 2025-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-28 | 2025-04-11 | Completed | 100% | $100.45 | $98.45 | -2.04% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-25 | 2023-12-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-09-25 | Completed | 100% | $94.64 | $94.86 | 0.19% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $96.11 | $91.07 | -5.29% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-26 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-29 | 2022-01-26 | Completed | 100% | $102.70 | $100.60 | -2.09% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-06 | 2021-12-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-11 | 2021-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $98.44 | $102.46 | 4.03% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-22 | 2020-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2020-04-22 | Completed | 100% | $89.50 | $95.99 | 7.20% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-07 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-11-07 | Completed | 100% | $88.08 | $88.03 | -0.11% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-26 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2018-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $86.34 | $87.93 | 1.79% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-21 | 2017-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-27 | 2016-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $83.21 | $85.31 | 2.47% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-18 | 2015-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-17 | 2015-06-18 | Completed | 100% | $74.44 | $82.37 | 10.61% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-12 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-26 | 2013-06-12 | Completed | 100% | $68.43 | $77.28 | 12.87% | Signal | |
| 2010-12-20 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-20 | Completed | 100% | $65.36 | $66.61 | 1.86% | Signal | |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |