MUB
iShares National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for MUB (iShares National Muni Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -13.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.9%. The strategy executed 37 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
MUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.35% | 5.30% | 1.20% | 0.48% | 1.84% | 1.79% | 2.77% | 2.88% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.81 | 1.74 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 0.61 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.79% | -2.79% | -7.06% | -11.80% | -7.28% | -13.68% | -8.52% | -13.68% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 97.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $100.62 | $106.29 | 5.58% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-16 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-09-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.90% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.15 | $102.20 | -0.00% | Signal | |
| 2024-04-10 | 2024-09-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.00 | $101.75 | 2.72% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.54 | $99.87 | 0.28% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-08 | 2024-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-22 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.64 | $96.18 | 1.57% | Signal | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.64 | $96.01 | 1.40% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-13 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.11 | $91.07 | -5.29% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.11 | $91.07 | -5.29% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-10 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-04 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-05 | 2022-05-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $94.18 | $93.35 | -0.94% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-12 | 2022-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.00 | $95.98 | 0.98% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-02-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.00 | $100.00 | 5.21% | Signal | |
| 2021-06-11 | 2021-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $102.69 | $101.91 | -0.81% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-19 | 2021-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-30 | 2021-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.74 | $101.77 | 3.02% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-29 | 2020-06-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.00 | $95.05 | -0.01% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-11 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.14 | $94.49 | -3.76% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.52 | $94.49 | 6.69% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.08 | $94.49 | 7.22% | Stop | |
| 2020-01-17 | 2020-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2020-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.52 | $97.54 | 10.13% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-24 | 2018-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-07 | 2018-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.08 | $87.92 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-01 | 2018-09-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.23 | $88.36 | 0.10% | Signal | |
| 2018-03-19 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-17 | 2018-05-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2018-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.34 | $87.84 | 1.68% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-07 | 2018-02-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-28 | 2018-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.34 | $88.87 | 2.87% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-23 | 2017-08-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.01 | $88.68 | 4.27% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-04 | 2017-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-10 | 2017-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-23 | 2017-01-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.01 | $85.31 | 0.30% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-01 | 2016-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.82 | $83.93 | 0.08% | Stop | |
| 2014-01-13 | 2016-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.24 | $83.93 | 8.60% | Stop | |
| 2015-07-27 | 2016-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.21 | $86.63 | 4.05% | Signal | |
| 2015-09-14 | 2015-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-17 | 2015-09-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.44 | $83.21 | 11.73% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-02 | 2015-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-17 | 2015-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.44 | $82.48 | 10.75% | Signal | |
| 2013-11-12 | 2014-01-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-16 | 2013-11-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.53 | $76.07 | 0.66% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-21 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-03-20 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-21 | 2013-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-26 | 2013-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.43 | $74.50 | 8.82% | Stop | |
| 2011-01-06 | 2013-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.44 | $74.50 | 12.07% | Stop | |
| 2011-04-26 | 2013-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.43 | $78.54 | 14.72% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-16 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-01-06 | 2011-02-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.44 | $66.79 | 0.47% | Signal | |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-14 | 2011-01-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.36 | $66.05 | 1.01% | Stop | |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.36 | $66.05 | 1.01% | Stop | |
| 2009-09-02 | 2010-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.36 | $66.05 | 1.01% | Stop | |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-08-31 | 2009-09-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |