PDBC
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for PDBC (Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -16.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -40.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.6%. The strategy executed 66 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
PDBC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 32.55% | 39.71% | 10.26% | 11.94% | 8.62% | 9.17% | 8.96% | 8.62% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.98 | 1.76 | 0.80 | 0.59 | 0.72 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | -10.64% | -16.55% | -16.91% | -27.63% | -16.91% | -40.73% | -16.91% | -40.73% |
| % Time Invested | 90.1% | 100.0% | 71.5% | 100.0% | 75.9% | 100.0% | 78.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.27 | $16.84 | 3.42% | Stop | |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.61 | $16.84 | 15.21% | Stop | |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-01-29 | 2026-02-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.24 | $14.22 | -6.74% | Stop | |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-02-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.46 | $14.22 | 5.59% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-22 | 2026-01-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.69% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.87 | $13.36 | 3.76% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-25 | 2025-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-15 | 2025-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.16 | $12.57 | -4.51% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-22 | 2025-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.10 | $12.30 | 1.62% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-09 | 2025-05-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-01-23 | 2025-04-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.07 | $11.67 | -10.80% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-12 | 2025-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.24 | $12.43 | -6.17% | Signal | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-07-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.24 | $12.49 | -5.75% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-07-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.24 | $12.49 | -5.75% | Stop | |
| 2024-02-21 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-12 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-01 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-05 | 2024-02-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.29 | $12.23 | -0.57% | Signal | |
| 2023-12-12 | 2024-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.83 | $12.01 | -6.45% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-31 | 2023-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.03 | $12.01 | -7.85% | Stop | |
| 2023-02-06 | 2023-11-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-09-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $11.97 | $13.16 | 9.92% | Signal | |
| 2023-02-06 | 2023-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-03 | 2023-05-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-05-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.76 | $11.96 | -6.35% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-01 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.66 | $11.88 | -6.16% | Stop | |
| 2023-02-06 | 2023-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-02-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.37 | $12.54 | -6.26% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-02-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.37 | $12.54 | -6.26% | Stop | |
| 2022-12-14 | 2023-02-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.98 | $12.54 | -3.38% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-21 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-01 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-21 | 2022-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.52 | $13.01 | 3.84% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-27 | 2022-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.52 | $13.01 | 3.84% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-09-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-09-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.89 | $13.46 | 4.36% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-14 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.89 | $13.46 | 4.36% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-26 | 2022-09-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.55 | $13.33 | -1.66% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-01 | 2022-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-21 | 2022-07-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-21 | 2022-07-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-06 | 2022-07-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.14 | $14.25 | 0.72% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-18 | 2022-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.94 | $15.22 | 1.80% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-18 | 2022-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.94 | $15.22 | 1.80% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.77 | $14.31 | 3.85% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-04-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.77 | $14.31 | 3.85% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-15 | 2022-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-10 | 2022-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-10 | 2022-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-23 | 2022-03-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.83 | $12.99 | 19.89% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.60 | $13.95 | 31.55% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-21 | 2022-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.60 | $13.95 | 31.55% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-01 | 2021-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021-12-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-12-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.78 | $10.40 | 53.30% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-15 | 2021-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.47 | $10.79 | 3.05% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-15 | 2021-11-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.47 | $10.79 | 3.05% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-23 | 2021-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-23 | 2021-09-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-11 | 2021-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.04 | $9.71 | -3.33% | Stop | |
| 2021-08-11 | 2021-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $10.04 | $9.71 | -3.33% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-13 | 2021-07-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.90 | $9.69 | 8.77% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-07-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.78 | $9.69 | 42.84% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-19 | 2021-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2021-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $6.78 | $8.72 | 28.57% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-04 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-27 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-27 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.29 | $6.65 | -8.74% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-04 | 2020-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-16 | 2020-02-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.24 | $7.62 | -7.61% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-10 | 2020-02-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.98 | $7.62 | -4.54% | Stop | |
| 2019-07-11 | 2019-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.79% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-10 | 2019-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.98 | $8.36 | 4.71% | Signal | |
| 2019-06-18 | 2019-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.92 | $8.29 | 4.61% | Signal | |
| 2019-05-24 | 2019-06-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-19 | 2019-05-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.71 | $8.12 | 5.36% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-26 | 2019-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-28 | 2019-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-26 | 2018-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-15 | 2018-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.32 | $7.91 | -4.98% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-15 | 2018-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.32 | $7.91 | -4.98% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-07-11 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.97 | $9.03 | 0.67% | Stop | |
| 2018-07-11 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.97 | $9.03 | 0.67% | Stop | |
| 2017-07-03 | 2018-08-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.55 | $8.96 | 18.66% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-18 | 2018-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-18 | 2018-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-07 | 2018-06-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.67 | $8.91 | 2.69% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-07 | 2018-06-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.67 | $8.91 | 2.69% | Stop | |
| 2018-02-12 | 2018-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-02-12 | 2018-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-11-02 | 2018-02-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.31 | $8.48 | 2.07% | Stop | |
| 2017-07-14 | 2018-02-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.50 | $8.48 | 13.01% | Stop | |
| 2017-07-11 | 2017-11-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-06-21 | 2017-07-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-07-07 | 2017-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.43 | $7.43 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2017-06-14 | 2017-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-05 | 2017-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-30 | 2017-06-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.66 | $7.21 | -5.88% | Stop | |
| 2017-05-25 | 2017-06-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.84 | $7.38 | -5.87% | Stop | |
| 2017-05-05 | 2017-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-03 | 2017-05-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-20 | 2017-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.91 | $7.44 | -6.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.09 | $7.44 | -8.17% | Stop | |
| 2017-04-03 | 2017-05-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $7.92 | $7.62 | -3.77% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2017-04-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-10 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $8.09 | $7.77 | -4.06% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |