PDBC
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for PDBC (Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -38.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -40.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.6%. The strategy executed 11 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
PDBC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 28.28% | 39.71% | 5.65% | 11.94% | 5.41% | 9.17% | 5.62% | 8.62% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.36 | 1.76 | 0.34 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | -16.55% | -16.55% | -38.85% | -27.63% | -38.85% | -40.73% | -38.85% | -40.73% |
| % Time Invested | 93.7% | 100.0% | 62.1% | 100.0% | 70.3% | 100.0% | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-05-13 | 2025-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-02-11 | 2025-05-13 | Completed | 100% | $13.17 | $12.41 | -5.82% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-26 | 2025-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-08-26 | Completed | 100% | $13.24 | $12.54 | -5.33% | Signal | |
| 2024-01-05 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-31 | 2024-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $13.03 | $12.29 | -5.69% | Signal | |
| 2023-02-06 | 2023-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $13.37 | $12.54 | -6.26% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-29 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-28 | 2022-09-29 | Completed | 100% | $13.76 | $12.85 | -6.67% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-06 | 2022-07-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2022-07-06 | Completed | 100% | $6.78 | $13.14 | 93.74% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-28 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-10 | 2020-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $7.98 | $7.17 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-26 | 2019-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-26 | Completed | 100% | $9.26 | $7.91 | -14.63% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-20 | 2018-10-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-07-03 | 2018-09-20 | Completed | 100% | $7.55 | $9.05 | 19.90% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-09 | 2017-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-05-09 | Completed | 100% | $8.09 | $7.49 | -7.53% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |