PDBC
Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for PDBC (Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -35.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -40.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.6%. The strategy executed 8 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
PDBC Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -3.45% | 39.71% | 1.86% | 11.94% | 5.72% | 9.17% | 5.95% | 8.62% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.25 | 1.76 | 0.12 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| Max Drawdown | -16.55% | -16.55% | -35.37% | -27.63% | -35.37% | -40.73% | -35.37% | -40.73% |
| % Time Invested | 33.3% | 100.0% | 51.2% | 100.0% | 57.4% | 100.0% | 59.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-02-03 | 2026-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-01-29 | 2026-02-03 | Completed | 100% | $15.24 | $14.22 | -6.74% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-22 | 2026-01-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.69% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-07-22 | Completed | 100% | $13.24 | $12.49 | -5.75% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-16 | 2024-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-08-16 | Completed | 100% | $12.76 | $12.78 | 0.09% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-28 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $13.76 | $11.88 | -13.69% | Stop | |
| 2022-07-06 | 2022-07-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-09 | 2022-07-06 | Completed | 100% | $6.78 | $13.14 | 93.74% | Stop | |
| 2019-06-11 | 2020-07-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-06-11 | Completed | 100% | $7.93 | $7.92 | -0.18% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2018-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $7.77 | $8.09 | 4.11% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-05 | 2017-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |