QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-12
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -22.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -60.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 12.0%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
QQQ Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 35.02% | 35.85% | 16.50% | 16.65% | 21.11% | 21.78% | 13.70% | 11.99% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.77 | 1.79 | 0.98 | 0.69 | 1.13 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.47 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.96% | -11.96% | -19.99% | -35.12% | -19.99% | -35.12% | -22.75% | -60.71% |
| % Time Invested | 97.2% | 100.0% | 75.4% | 100.0% | 82.9% | 100.0% | 73.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-24 | Open | Open | 100% | $534.90 | $721.34 | 34.85% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.97% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $471.86 | $465.05 | -1.44% | Stop |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $277.75 | $433.17 | 55.96% | Stop |
| 2022-03-03 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-03 | Completed | 100% | $344.58 | $340.79 | -1.10% | Signal |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-27 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $220.86 | $337.61 | 52.86% | Stop |
| 2020-05-04 | 2020-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-04 | Completed | 100% | $173.75 | $204.22 | 17.54% | Signal |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2019-04-02 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $174.51 | $201.30 | 15.35% | Stop |
| 2018-11-21 | 2019-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income |
| 2016-05-04 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $97.91 | $153.79 | 57.07% | Stop |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-13 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 100% | $103.32 | $93.99 | -9.04% | Stop |
| 2015-10-05 | 2015-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $98.83 | $97.04 | -1.82% | Signal |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-01-23 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $60.48 | $94.30 | 55.91% | Stop |
| 2012-12-19 | 2013-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-06 | 2012-12-19 | Completed | 100% | $50.46 | $59.42 | 17.74% | Signal |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-09-17 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $42.09 | $45.15 | 7.27% | Stop |
| 2010-07-23 | 2010-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-23 | Completed | 100% | $39.47 | $39.65 | 0.45% | Signal |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-06-02 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $31.29 | $40.16 | 28.35% | Stop |
| 2008-07-14 | 2009-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2008-06-25 | 2008-07-14 | Completed | 100% | $40.49 | $38.88 | -3.98% | Signal |
| 2008-02-06 | 2008-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income |
| 2008-02-04 | 2008-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $39.20 | $37.77 | -3.64% | Signal |
| 2008-01-10 | 2008-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2006-09-19 | 2008-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $34.45 | $40.79 | 18.42% | Stop |
| 2006-06-16 | 2006-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.28% | Interest Income |
| 2005-05-24 | 2006-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $32.17 | $33.00 | 2.57% | Signal |
| 2005-05-02 | 2005-05-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2004-10-07 | 2005-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $30.84 | $29.90 | -3.02% | Signal |
| 2004-07-22 | 2004-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2003-03-10 | 2004-07-22 | Completed | 100% | $20.52 | $29.10 | 41.77% | Signal |
| 2003-02-13 | 2003-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2003-01-27 | 2003-02-13 | Completed | 100% | $20.63 | $20.12 | -2.45% | Signal |
| 2001-02-28 | 2003-01-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.34% | Interest Income |