QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -23.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -60.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 11.7%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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QQQ Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 19.48% | 19.48% | 13.50% | 13.73% | 19.46% | 20.20% | 13.24% | 11.65% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 1.05 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.45 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.96% | -11.96% | -20.07% | -35.12% | -20.07% | -35.12% | -22.99% | -60.71% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 75.4% | 100.0% | 82.9% | 100.0% | 73.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.97% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-04-01 | Completed | 100% | $471.35 | $464.54 | -1.49% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $277.44 | $432.69 | 55.88% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-03 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2022-03-03 | Completed | 100% | $344.20 | $340.41 | -1.15% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-25 | 2022-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-27 | 2022-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $220.62 | $337.24 | 52.78% | Stop | |
| 2020-05-04 | 2020-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-04 | Completed | 100% | $173.56 | $204.00 | 17.48% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-02 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $174.32 | $201.08 | 15.30% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2019-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-04 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $97.80 | $153.62 | 56.99% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-13 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 100% | $103.21 | $93.89 | -9.08% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-05 | 2015-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $98.72 | $96.93 | -1.87% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-23 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $60.42 | $94.19 | 55.83% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-19 | 2013-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-06 | 2012-12-19 | Completed | 100% | $50.41 | $59.35 | 17.68% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-17 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $42.04 | $45.10 | 7.22% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-23 | 2010-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-23 | Completed | 100% | $39.43 | $39.61 | 0.40% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-02 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $31.26 | $40.12 | 28.28% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-14 | 2009-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-06-25 | 2008-07-14 | Completed | 100% | $40.45 | $38.84 | -4.03% | Signal | |
| 2008-02-06 | 2008-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.64% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-04 | 2008-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $39.16 | $37.73 | -3.69% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-10 | 2008-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-09-19 | 2008-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $34.41 | $40.75 | 18.36% | Stop | |
| 2006-06-16 | 2006-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-05-24 | 2006-06-16 | Completed | 100% | $32.14 | $32.96 | 2.52% | Signal | |
| 2005-05-02 | 2005-05-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-10-07 | 2005-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $30.80 | $29.87 | -3.07% | Signal | |
| 2004-07-22 | 2004-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-10 | 2004-07-22 | Completed | 100% | $20.50 | $29.07 | 41.70% | Signal | |
| 2003-02-13 | 2003-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-01-27 | 2003-02-13 | Completed | 100% | $20.60 | $20.10 | -2.50% | Signal | |
| 2001-02-28 | 2003-01-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.34% | Interest Income | |