SPDW
SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPDW (SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -22.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.4%. The strategy executed 54 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SPDW Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.51% | 23.51% | 6.10% | 9.45% | 7.66% | 9.98% | 4.94% | 9.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.55% | -11.55% | -18.30% | -30.21% | -22.59% | -34.98% | -22.59% | -34.98% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 90.1% | 100.0% | 93.5% | 100.0% | 92.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-03-19 | 2025-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.76% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-26 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.57 | $32.33 | -9.17% | Stop | |
| 2024-12-19 | 2025-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-03-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.67 | $35.76 | 16.51% | Signal | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.67 | $32.59 | 6.20% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-17 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-22 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-12-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-11-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.73 | $29.33 | 2.04% | Signal | |
| 2023-01-03 | 2023-09-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.88 | $28.91 | 7.49% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.99 | $26.91 | -7.23% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.99 | $26.91 | -7.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-18 | 2023-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.24 | $25.23 | -0.09% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.31 | $25.79 | -14.96% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.12 | $27.51 | 43.83% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-02 | 2022-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.26 | $29.21 | 20.35% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-13 | 2022-01-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.17 | $31.40 | -2.45% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-06 | 2022-01-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-02 | 2021-12-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.45 | $30.67 | 30.74% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-26 | 2020-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.36 | $20.80 | 13.26% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.36 | $19.37 | 5.48% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.16 | $21.99 | -9.04% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-05 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.05 | $23.20 | -7.43% | Stop | |
| 2019-07-01 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.36 | $23.20 | -4.79% | Stop | |
| 2019-09-23 | 2019-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2019-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.16 | $23.96 | -0.89% | Signal | |
| 2019-08-14 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-27 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-26 | 2019-08-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.39 | $22.71 | -2.96% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-10 | 2019-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-10 | 2019-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.69% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-16 | 2019-02-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.30 | $23.37 | 4.76% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.89 | $21.61 | -5.64% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.89 | $21.61 | -5.64% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2018-10-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.05 | $22.00 | 4.47% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.21 | $22.93 | -5.34% | Stop | |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.21 | $22.93 | -5.34% | Stop | |
| 2018-08-17 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-08-08 | 2018-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.40 | $23.63 | 21.69% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-03 | 2018-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.41 | $24.78 | 21.33% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2017-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-30 | 2017-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-10 | 2016-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.89 | $19.72 | 4.33% | Signal | |
| 2015-11-06 | 2016-08-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2016-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.72 | $18.71 | -5.18% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.72 | $18.71 | -5.18% | Stop | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.22 | $19.60 | 1.92% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-21 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.41 | $18.89 | -11.78% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-13 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.78 | $18.89 | 12.56% | Stop | |
| 2015-03-20 | 2015-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.67 | $19.53 | -5.58% | Signal | |
| 2014-12-16 | 2015-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-06 | 2015-03-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-05 | 2014-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.79 | $18.86 | -4.74% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-14 | 2014-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-11-14 | 2014-10-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.81 | $19.01 | 20.17% | Stop | |
| 2012-09-12 | 2014-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $16.26 | $19.78 | 21.56% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-10 | 2012-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-21 | 2012-11-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-05-10 | 2012-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.30 | $16.48 | 7.63% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-20 | 2012-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-13 | 2012-06-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.33 | $14.86 | 3.69% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-21 | 2012-06-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-01-30 | 2012-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.25 | $14.35 | -5.91% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-23 | 2012-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2012-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.16 | $15.30 | 0.88% | Signal | |
| 2011-07-29 | 2012-01-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.16 | $13.43 | -11.42% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-16 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.87 | $15.58 | -1.87% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.19 | $15.58 | 18.11% | Stop | |
| 2010-09-20 | 2011-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $15.02 | $16.84 | 12.05% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-06 | 2010-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-09-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.19 | $13.61 | 3.18% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-13 | 2010-06-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.42 | $13.19 | -8.61% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-10 | 2010-05-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-08 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.95 | $13.39 | -10.45% | Stop | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.67 | $13.39 | -8.72% | Stop | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.67 | $15.04 | 2.51% | Signal | |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-08-06 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $13.78 | $13.74 | -0.34% | Stop | |
| 2009-05-22 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $12.24 | $13.74 | 12.23% | Stop | |
| 2009-12-30 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $14.96 | $14.37 | -3.95% | Stop | |
| 2009-04-17 | 2009-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-17 | 2009-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-04-17 | 2009-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |