SPDW
SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPDW (SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -34.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.4%. The strategy executed 16 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
SPDW Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.51% | 23.51% | 3.85% | 9.45% | 5.79% | 9.98% | 2.50% | 9.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.55% | -11.55% | -32.52% | -30.21% | -32.52% | -34.98% | -34.76% | -34.98% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.3% | 100.0% | 73.7% | 100.0% | 71.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-11-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $28.99 | $26.91 | -7.23% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-09 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-08 | 2022-09-09 | Completed | 100% | $25.46 | $25.48 | 0.02% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-14 | 2022-07-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-06-14 | Completed | 100% | $30.31 | $25.80 | -14.93% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-05 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 100% | $23.90 | $27.51 | 15.05% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-24 | 2020-06-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-24 | Completed | 100% | $19.12 | $20.47 | 7.03% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $24.16 | $21.99 | -9.04% | Stop | |
| 2019-03-01 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-15 | 2019-03-01 | Completed | 100% | $22.16 | $23.39 | 5.51% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-24 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 100% | $21.10 | $22.35 | 5.89% | Stop | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2017-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 100% | $19.72 | $18.71 | -5.18% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $19.63 | $18.89 | -3.81% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-12-13 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $16.78 | $18.45 | 9.90% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-10 | 2012-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-27 | 2012-05-10 | Completed | 100% | $15.89 | $15.30 | -3.76% | Signal | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $15.16 | $13.51 | -10.95% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $13.19 | $15.58 | 18.11% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-08 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $14.95 | $13.39 | -10.45% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-12-30 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 100% | $14.96 | $14.37 | -3.95% | Stop | |
| 2009-04-17 | 2009-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |