SPDW
SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPDW (SPDR Portfolio Developed World Ex-US ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -29.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 9.4%. The strategy executed 14 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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SPDW Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 23.51% | 23.51% | 9.28% | 9.45% | 7.79% | 9.98% | 4.41% | 9.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.26 | 1.26 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.55% | -11.55% | -19.32% | -30.21% | -26.33% | -34.98% | -29.27% | -34.98% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 73.5% | 100.0% | 76.9% | 100.0% | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-12-31 | Completed | 100% | $30.67 | $32.59 | 6.21% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-13 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-10 | 2023-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $27.73 | $28.23 | 1.79% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-18 | 2023-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-05 | 2022-01-18 | Completed | 100% | $24.39 | $31.40 | 28.66% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-08 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $23.83 | $21.99 | -7.79% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-10 | 2019-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.78% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-10 | Completed | 100% | $22.89 | $21.61 | -5.64% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 100% | $24.21 | $22.93 | -5.34% | Stop | |
| 2018-07-17 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-20 | 2018-07-17 | Completed | 100% | $18.79 | $24.13 | 28.34% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-14 | 2016-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-09 | 2015-12-14 | Completed | 100% | $19.72 | $18.71 | -5.18% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-09 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $20.92 | $18.89 | -9.75% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-13 | 2015-04-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-07 | 2014-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $15.97 | $19.13 | 19.76% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-01 | 2012-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-03-09 | 2012-06-01 | Completed | 100% | $16.10 | $13.89 | -13.75% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2012-03-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-28 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $15.35 | $15.58 | 1.46% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-03 | 2010-09-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-06-03 | Completed | 100% | $13.19 | $13.66 | 3.51% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-12 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $12.66 | $13.39 | 5.75% | Stop | |
| 2009-04-17 | 2009-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |