SPOT Spotify Technology S.A.
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPOT (Spotify Technology S.A.) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -32.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -80.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 18.1%. The strategy executed 47 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SPOT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -12.69% | -21.84% | 23.76% | 15.57% | 24.18% | 18.05% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.58 | -0.54 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.72 | 0.34 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.74% | -46.80% | -32.74% | -76.39% | -32.74% | -80.51% |
| % Time Invested | 74.2% | 100.0% | 71.3% | 100.0% | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 8.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $430.99 | $497.68 | 15.47% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-05-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $508.63 | $434.15 | -14.64% | Stop |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-14 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2026-02-09 | 2026-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $430.82 | $479.38 | 11.27% | Stop |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2025-11-05 | 2026-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.47% | Interest Income |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-11-28 | 2026-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $596.62 | $505.50 | -15.27% | Stop |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $577.35 | $542.35 | -6.06% | Stop |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $636.00 | $562.99 | -11.48% | Stop |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-28 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $703.79 | $626.00 | -11.05% | Stop |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $703.79 | $626.00 | -11.05% | Stop |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $693.71 | $660.93 | -4.73% | Stop |
| 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-08-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $547.20 | $623.00 | 13.85% | Stop |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $547.20 | $623.00 | 13.85% | Stop |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-07-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $606.10 | $680.00 | 12.19% | Stop |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $569.15 | $558.00 | -1.96% | Stop |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-03-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income |
| 2023-11-21 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $178.54 | $508.12 | 184.60% | Stop |
| 2023-08-17 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.35 | $508.12 | 278.21% | Stop |
| 2024-05-15 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $298.85 | $584.27 | 95.51% | Stop |
| 2024-04-23 | 2024-05-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2023-12-13 | 2024-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $199.02 | $301.13 | 51.31% | Stop |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-12-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2023-08-17 | 2023-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.35 | $161.20 | 19.99% | Signal |
| 2023-09-06 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $161.90 | $153.33 | -5.29% | Stop |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-09-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-20 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $156.20 | $141.69 | -9.29% | Stop |
| 2023-04-25 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $140.50 | $141.69 | 0.85% | Stop |
| 2023-02-14 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $121.52 | $141.69 | 16.60% | Stop |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-25 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.69% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-10 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-03 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.26 | $97.87 | -8.75% | Stop |
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $126.00 | $141.38 | 12.21% | Stop |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-03-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-22 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-17 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-03 | 2022-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $164.00 | $150.20 | -8.41% | Stop |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $165.45 | $162.59 | -1.73% | Signal |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-11 | 2022-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2021-12-27 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $236.71 | $187.41 | -20.83% | Stop |
| 2021-12-15 | 2022-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $222.35 | $224.40 | 0.92% | Stop |
| 2021-11-02 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021-12-27 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-22 | 2021-12-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $282.24 | $225.00 | -20.28% | Stop |
| 2021-10-22 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $251.50 | $258.65 | 2.84% | Stop |
| 2021-11-02 | 2021-11-09 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-30 | 2021-10-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-11 | 2021-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $216.07 | $221.87 | 2.68% | Stop |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-08-11 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-06-01 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $243.50 | $225.31 | -7.47% | Stop |
| 2021-05-27 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $238.40 | $225.31 | -5.49% | Stop |
| 2021-05-14 | 2021-07-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $219.05 | $243.00 | 10.93% | Stop |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-06-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-05-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-05-14 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-23 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $274.00 | $246.00 | -10.22% | Stop |
| 2021-03-23 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $274.00 | $246.00 | -10.22% | Stop |
| 2021-04-22 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-04-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $261.00 | $266.02 | 1.92% | Stop |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-03-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-03-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-03 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $322.73 | $290.00 | -10.14% | Stop |
| 2021-02-08 | 2021-03-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $269.00 | $313.00 | 16.36% | Stop |
| 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $269.00 | $313.00 | 16.36% | Stop |
| 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $260.01 | $311.93 | 19.97% | Stop |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-23 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $236.00 | -3.28% | Stop |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $236.00 | -3.28% | Stop |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020-11-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $263.71 | 8.08% | Stop |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $271.03 | $240.66 | -11.21% | Stop |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $187.00 | $240.66 | 28.70% | Stop |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $187.00 | $240.66 | 28.70% | Stop |
| 2020-07-30 | 2020-08-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-26 | 2020-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $266.60 | $252.00 | -5.48% | Stop |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |