SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPOT (Spotify Technology S.A.) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -33.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -80.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 30.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 17.0%. The strategy executed 13 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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SPOT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -22.08% | -29.19% | 33.43% | 14.96% | 30.09% | 16.97% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.41 | -0.77 | 1.05 | 0.29 | 0.82 | 0.32 |
| Max Drawdown | -25.96% | -44.11% | -33.11% | -76.39% | -33.11% | -80.51% |
| % Time Invested | 24.2% | 100.0% | 51.8% | 100.0% | 55.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-12-04 | Completed | 100% | $596.62 | $557.22 | -6.65% | Signal | |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-11-05 | Completed | 100% | $703.79 | $626.00 | -11.10% | Stop | |
| 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-07-30 | Completed | 100% | $606.10 | $623.00 | 2.74% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $545.00 | $558.00 | 2.33% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-07 | 2025-03-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-17 | 2025-03-07 | Completed | 100% | $134.35 | $540.52 | 302.12% | Stop | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-24 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 100% | $116.44 | $141.69 | 21.62% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-14 | 2023-02-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2022-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $225.00 | $223.91 | -0.53% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-01 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 100% | $243.50 | $225.31 | -7.52% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-03 | 2021-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-22 | 2021-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $276.00 | $255.42 | -7.50% | Stop | |
| 2021-02-26 | 2021-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-24 | 2021-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $267.91 | $300.00 | 11.92% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-02 | 2020-11-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-02 | Completed | 100% | $244.00 | $240.01 | -1.68% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-28 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 100% | $276.10 | $240.66 | -12.88% | Stop | |
| 2020-08-06 | 2020-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $187.00 | $252.53 | 34.98% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |