SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A.
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SPOT (Spotify Technology S.A.) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -33.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -80.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 17.0%. The strategy executed 48 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SPOT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -20.66% | -29.19% | 22.91% | 14.96% | 22.63% | 16.97% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.22 | -0.77 | 0.80 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.32 |
| Max Drawdown | -25.22% | -44.11% | -33.12% | -76.39% | -33.12% | -80.51% |
| % Time Invested | 67.9% | 100.0% | 70.0% | 100.0% | 72.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 9.0 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-29 | 2026-05-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-04-14 | 2026-04-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $508.63 | $434.15 | -14.69% | Stop | |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-02-09 | 2026-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $430.82 | $479.38 | 11.22% | Stop | |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-02-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-28 | 2026-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $596.62 | $505.50 | -15.32% | Stop | |
| 2025-12-30 | 2026-01-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $577.35 | $542.35 | -6.11% | Stop | |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $636.00 | $562.99 | -11.52% | Stop | |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $703.79 | $626.00 | -11.10% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-21 | 2025-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $703.79 | $626.00 | -11.10% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $693.71 | $660.93 | -4.77% | Stop | |
| 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-30 | 2025-08-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-23 | 2025-08-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $547.20 | $623.00 | 13.80% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-01 | 2025-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $547.20 | $623.00 | 13.80% | Stop | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-07-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $606.10 | $680.00 | 12.14% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-27 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $569.15 | $558.00 | -2.01% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-05 | 2025-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-21 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $178.54 | $508.12 | 184.45% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-17 | 2025-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.35 | $508.12 | 278.02% | Stop | |
| 2024-05-15 | 2025-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $298.85 | $584.27 | 95.41% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-23 | 2024-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-13 | 2024-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $199.02 | $301.13 | 51.23% | Stop | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-30 | 2023-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-17 | 2023-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.35 | $161.20 | 19.93% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-06 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $161.90 | $153.33 | -5.34% | Stop | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-07-26 | 2023-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-20 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $156.20 | $141.69 | -9.33% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-25 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $140.50 | $141.69 | 0.80% | Stop | |
| 2023-02-14 | 2023-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $121.52 | $141.69 | 16.54% | Stop | |
| 2022-05-10 | 2023-06-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2023-04-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-17 | 2023-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-03 | 2022-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $107.26 | $97.87 | -8.80% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-05-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $126.00 | $141.38 | 12.15% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-22 | 2022-03-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-03 | 2022-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $164.00 | $150.20 | -8.46% | Stop | |
| 2022-02-15 | 2022-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $165.45 | $162.59 | -1.78% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-24 | 2022-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-11 | 2022-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-27 | 2022-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $236.71 | $187.41 | -20.87% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-15 | 2022-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $222.35 | $224.40 | 0.87% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021-12-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-22 | 2021-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-09 | 2021-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $282.24 | $225.00 | -20.32% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-22 | 2021-11-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $251.50 | $258.65 | 2.79% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-29 | 2021-11-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-09-30 | 2021-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-08-11 | 2021-09-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $216.07 | $221.87 | 2.63% | Stop | |
| 2021-07-20 | 2021-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-06-01 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $243.50 | $225.31 | -7.52% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-27 | 2021-07-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $238.40 | $225.31 | -5.54% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-14 | 2021-07-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $219.05 | $243.00 | 10.88% | Stop | |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-22 | 2021-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-23 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $274.00 | $246.00 | -10.26% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-23 | 2021-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $274.00 | $246.00 | -10.26% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-04-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $261.00 | $266.02 | 1.87% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-01 | 2021-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-03 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $322.73 | $290.00 | -10.19% | Stop | |
| 2021-02-08 | 2021-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $269.00 | $313.00 | 16.30% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-25 | 2021-03-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $269.00 | $313.00 | 16.30% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $260.01 | $311.93 | 19.91% | Stop | |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $236.00 | -3.33% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $236.00 | -3.33% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $244.00 | $263.71 | 8.02% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-21 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $271.03 | $240.66 | -11.25% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $187.00 | $240.66 | 28.63% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $187.00 | $240.66 | 28.63% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-30 | 2020-08-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-26 | 2020-07-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $266.60 | $252.00 | -5.52% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-15 | 2020-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |