SUB iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SUB (iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -9.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.51% | 3.09% | 2.01% | 1.45% | 0.99% | 1.48% | 0.86% | 1.31% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 4.35 | 3.06 | 1.55 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.60% | -0.81% | -3.00% | -4.35% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 92.4% | 100.0% | 95.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2022-05-31 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $96.72 | $106.50 | 10.11% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2026-03-18 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.53 | $106.43 | -0.09% | Signal |
| 2022-05-31 | 2026-03-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.72 | $106.48 | 10.09% | Signal |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-17 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income |
| 2025-11-25 | 2026-03-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income |
| 2025-07-01 | 2025-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.90 | $105.32 | 1.37% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-10 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.62% | Interest Income |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.88 | $102.14 | 0.25% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-09-26 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.89% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-11 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.84% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-26 | 2024-04-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $99.41 | $99.26 | -0.16% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-01-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.35% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-19 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-04-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.58 | $97.44 | 0.89% | Signal |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-03 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.72 | $95.36 | -1.41% | Signal |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-04-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.92 | $96.55 | -0.38% | Signal |
| 2022-01-21 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.92 | $98.47 | 1.60% | Signal |
| 2021-11-11 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-15 | 2021-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.93 | $99.04 | 2.17% | Signal |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-15 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-02-04 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $97.10 | $89.15 | -8.18% | Stop |
| 2018-07-16 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.02 | $89.15 | -4.16% | Stop |
| 2018-07-16 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.02 | $89.15 | -4.16% | Stop |
| 2019-11-21 | 2020-02-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-10 | 2019-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.44 | $96.37 | 3.13% | Signal |
| 2018-12-04 | 2018-12-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2018-07-16 | 2018-10-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.02 | $92.73 | -0.31% | Signal |
| 2017-12-29 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2017-11-16 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.34% | Interest Income |
| 2017-05-02 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.30% | Interest Income |
| 2017-02-27 | 2017-12-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.04 | $92.16 | 0.13% | Signal |
| 2017-02-27 | 2017-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.04 | $92.55 | 0.55% | Signal |
| 2017-04-12 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-15 | 2017-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.02 | $92.24 | 6.01% | Signal |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-02-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income |
| 2016-11-04 | 2017-02-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-02 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.50 | $91.23 | -0.30% | Signal |
| 2015-08-13 | 2016-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.32 | $92.08 | 0.84% | Signal |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-08-13 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-02 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-02 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-22 | 2015-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2015-05-08 | 2015-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-12 | 2015-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.55 | $90.74 | 0.21% | Signal |
| 2015-02-26 | 2015-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.18 | $90.88 | -0.33% | Signal |
| 2015-02-03 | 2015-02-26 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2015-01-09 | 2015-02-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-10-10 | 2015-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.28 | $90.97 | 0.75% | Signal |
| 2013-12-03 | 2013-12-12 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-10-10 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-19 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-04-23 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.80 | $89.95 | 0.17% | Signal |
| 2011-06-17 | 2013-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.22 | $89.78 | 1.77% | Signal |
| 2013-01-03 | 2013-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2012-12-28 | 2013-01-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-18 | 2012-12-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.21 | $89.76 | 2.93% | Signal |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-06-17 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-04-04 | 2011-04-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-03-02 | 2011-04-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-02-17 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-01-04 | 2011-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-15 | 2011-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.02 | $86.37 | -0.75% | Signal |
| 2010-12-13 | 2011-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-15 | 2010-12-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.02 | $85.75 | -1.45% | Signal |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |