SUB
iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SUB (iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -9.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 9 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
SUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 1.92% | 1.92% | 1.59% | 1.36% | 1.35% | 1.42% | 1.04% | 1.29% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.74 | 1.74 | 1.08 | 0.82 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.81% | -0.81% | -2.58% | -4.33% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 86.8% | 100.0% | 83.5% | 100.0% | 82.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-10-06 | 2023-11-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2023-10-06 | Completed | 100% | $96.31 | $96.33 | -0.03% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-17 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-02 | 2021-11-17 | Completed | 100% | $97.83 | $98.56 | 0.69% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-07-03 | 2020-04-06 | Completed | 100% | $92.40 | $95.76 | 3.58% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-15 | 2018-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.92% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-02-27 | 2017-12-15 | Completed | 100% | $91.65 | $91.89 | 0.21% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-08 | 2017-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-31 | 2016-11-08 | Completed | 100% | $90.99 | $91.69 | 0.72% | Signal | |
| 2015-04-24 | 2015-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-30 | 2015-04-24 | Completed | 100% | $89.87 | $90.46 | 0.60% | Signal | |
| 2013-05-17 | 2013-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-03-05 | 2013-05-17 | Completed | 100% | $89.98 | $89.68 | -0.38% | Signal | |
| 2013-01-25 | 2013-03-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-12 | 2013-01-25 | Completed | 100% | $86.93 | $89.67 | 3.10% | Signal | |
| 2010-12-22 | 2011-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-15 | 2010-12-22 | Completed | 100% | $86.64 | $85.61 | -1.25% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |