SUB
iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for SUB (iShares Short-term National Muni Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -9.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -9.5%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 28 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
SUB Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.17% | 1.92% | 1.80% | 1.36% | 0.76% | 1.42% | 0.71% | 1.29% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.36 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.60% | -0.81% | -2.96% | -4.33% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% | -9.46% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 96.8% | 100.0% | 92.4% | 100.0% | 95.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.07 | $105.97 | -0.14% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2026-03-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.31 | $106.02 | 10.03% | Signal | |
| 2025-11-25 | 2026-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-01 | 2025-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $103.45 | $104.87 | 1.32% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-10 | 2025-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $101.44 | $101.70 | 0.20% | Signal | |
| 2024-04-11 | 2024-09-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-26 | 2024-04-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.99 | $98.83 | -0.21% | Signal | |
| 2023-04-19 | 2024-01-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-25 | 2023-04-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.17 | $97.02 | 0.84% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-03 | 2022-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-31 | 2022-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.31 | $94.95 | -1.46% | Signal | |
| 2022-04-01 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-21 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-11 | 2022-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-04-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.51 | $96.14 | -0.43% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2022-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.51 | $98.05 | 1.55% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-15 | 2021-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.52 | $98.61 | 2.12% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-04 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $96.68 | $88.77 | -8.23% | Stop | |
| 2018-07-16 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.62 | $88.77 | -4.20% | Stop | |
| 2018-07-16 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.62 | $88.77 | -4.20% | Stop | |
| 2019-11-21 | 2020-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-10 | 2019-11-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $93.04 | $95.96 | 3.08% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018-12-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-07-16 | 2018-10-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $92.62 | $92.33 | -0.36% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-29 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-11-16 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-12 | 2018-07-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-02-27 | 2017-12-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.65 | $91.77 | 0.08% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-27 | 2017-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.65 | $92.15 | 0.50% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-15 | 2017-04-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.64 | $91.85 | 5.95% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-07 | 2017-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-04 | 2017-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-02 | 2016-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $91.11 | $90.84 | -0.35% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-13 | 2016-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.92 | $91.69 | 0.79% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-22 | 2015-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-08 | 2015-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-12-12 | 2015-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.17 | $90.36 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 2015-02-26 | 2015-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $90.79 | $90.49 | -0.38% | Signal | |
| 2015-01-09 | 2015-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-10-10 | 2015-01-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.90 | $90.58 | 0.70% | Signal | |
| 2013-04-23 | 2013-12-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-06-19 | 2013-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-04-02 | 2013-06-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $89.41 | $89.57 | 0.12% | Signal | |
| 2011-06-17 | 2013-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.85 | $89.40 | 1.71% | Signal | |
| 2012-12-28 | 2013-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-04-18 | 2012-12-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.83 | $89.38 | 2.88% | Signal | |
| 2011-02-17 | 2011-06-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-12-13 | 2011-04-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-15 | 2011-02-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.64 | $86.00 | -0.80% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-15 | 2010-12-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $86.64 | $85.39 | -1.50% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-11-11 | 2010-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |