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DASHBOARDS: Portfolio Hub Market Pulse Performance

TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -23.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -48.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.3%. The strategy executed 102 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.

TLT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric1Y5Y10YFull History
StrategyB&HStrategyB&HStrategyB&HStrategyB&H
CAGR0.80%2.57%0.12%-7.76%-0.13%-2.27%3.15%3.31%
Sharpe Ratio0.210.270.02-0.52-0.02-0.160.320.23
Max Drawdown-2.96%-7.58%-8.87%-43.70%-19.94%-48.35%-23.67%-48.35%
% Time Invested77.4%100.0%45.0%100.0%61.4%100.0%75.3%100.0%
Trades / Year2.00.02.60.04.50.04.60.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of TLT under the Excess Return MMA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 3.1% CAGR with a -23.7% Max Drawdown across 102 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 3.3% CAGR and -48.4% Max Drawdown).

Return Distribution Analysis

Histogram of monthly return distribution for TLT under Excess Return MMA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness.
Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile. Monthly return distribution for TLT under Excess Return MMA (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry DateExit DateTypeAllocationEntry PriceExit PriceNet Return %Exit Reason
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2025-11-21 2026-05-12 Completed 33.33% $87.01 $84.54 -2.88% Signal
2025-09-29 2026-02-05 Completed 33.33% $86.05 $85.33 -0.89% Signal
2025-02-12 2025-11-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 3.29% Interest Income
2024-12-12 2025-09-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 3.37% Interest Income
2025-01-21 2025-02-12 Completed 33.33% $82.28 $82.01 -0.38% Signal
2024-12-24 2025-01-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.27% Interest Income
2024-11-04 2024-12-24 Completed 33.33% $85.76 $81.48 -5.03% Stop
2024-11-04 2024-12-12 Completed 33.33% $85.76 $85.46 -0.40% Signal
2024-10-11 2024-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.29% Interest Income
2024-10-11 2024-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.29% Interest Income
2024-08-05 2024-10-11 Completed 33.33% $91.74 $86.58 -5.67% Stop
2024-08-05 2024-10-11 Completed 33.33% $91.74 $86.58 -5.67% Stop
2024-08-05 2024-10-11 Completed 33.33% $91.74 $86.58 -5.67% Stop
2024-06-11 2024-08-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.78% Interest Income
2024-05-07 2024-08-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.29% Interest Income
2021-08-18 2024-08-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.11 10.85% Interest Income
2024-05-31 2024-06-11 Completed 33.33% $82.44 $83.22 0.90% Signal
2022-03-15 2024-05-31 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.10 9.75% Interest Income
2024-05-03 2024-05-07 Completed 33.33% $81.94 $82.82 1.03% Signal
2024-04-11 2024-05-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.34% Interest Income
2024-01-26 2024-04-11 Completed 33.33% $84.46 $82.06 -2.89% Stop
2023-05-23 2024-01-26 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.04 3.68% Interest Income
2023-02-15 2023-05-23 Completed 33.33% $90.22 $88.16 -2.33% Stop
2021-12-29 2023-02-15 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 2.64% Interest Income
2022-01-28 2022-03-15 Completed 33.33% $120.64 $113.11 -6.29% Stop
2022-01-05 2022-01-28 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2021-07-08 2022-01-05 Completed 33.33% $125.48 $122.38 -2.52% Stop
2021-07-08 2021-12-29 Completed 33.33% $125.48 $124.73 -0.64% Signal
2021-03-01 2021-08-18 Completed 33.33% $117.89 $125.49 6.39% Signal
2021-01-20 2021-07-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2020-11-02 2021-07-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2021-02-04 2021-03-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2020-10-29 2021-02-04 Completed 33.33% $133.97 $124.86 -6.85% Stop
2020-10-29 2021-01-20 Completed 33.33% $133.97 $127.09 -5.19% Signal
2020-10-29 2020-11-02 Completed 33.33% $133.97 $132.42 -1.21% Signal
2020-10-07 2020-10-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-10-07 2020-10-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-10-07 2020-10-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-06-29 2020-10-07 Completed 33.33% $136.80 $133.00 -2.83% Stop
2020-06-29 2020-10-07 Completed 33.33% $136.80 $133.00 -2.83% Stop
2020-06-29 2020-10-07 Completed 33.33% $136.80 $133.00 -2.83% Stop
2020-06-05 2020-06-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-06-05 2020-06-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-06-05 2020-06-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-04-03 2020-06-05 Completed 33.33% $139.51 $128.30 -8.08% Stop
2020-04-03 2020-06-05 Completed 33.33% $139.51 $128.30 -8.08% Stop
2020-04-03 2020-06-05 Completed 33.33% $139.51 $128.30 -8.08% Stop
2020-03-12 2020-04-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-03-12 2020-04-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-03-12 2020-04-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2020-02-27 2020-03-12 Completed 33.33% $126.02 $135.14 7.18% Stop
2019-12-03 2020-03-12 Completed 33.33% $115.20 $135.14 17.26% Stop
2019-12-03 2020-03-12 Completed 33.33% $115.20 $135.14 17.26% Stop
2020-01-14 2020-02-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.18% Interest Income
2019-12-03 2020-01-14 Completed 33.33% $115.20 $113.85 -1.22% Signal
2019-11-08 2019-12-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.10% Interest Income
2019-11-08 2019-12-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.10% Interest Income
2019-11-08 2019-12-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.10% Interest Income
2019-10-08 2019-11-08 Completed 33.33% $119.54 $110.98 -7.20% Stop
2019-10-08 2019-11-08 Completed 33.33% $119.54 $110.98 -7.20% Stop
2019-10-08 2019-11-08 Completed 33.33% $119.54 $110.98 -7.20% Stop
2019-09-16 2019-10-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2019-09-16 2019-10-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2019-09-16 2019-10-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2018-12-11 2019-09-16 Completed 33.33% $95.54 $112.83 18.04% Stop
2018-12-11 2019-09-16 Completed 33.33% $95.54 $112.83 18.04% Stop
2018-12-11 2019-09-16 Completed 33.33% $95.54 $112.83 18.04% Stop
2018-10-08 2018-12-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.41% Interest Income
2018-03-13 2018-12-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.54% Interest Income
2018-02-08 2018-12-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.68% Interest Income
2018-07-27 2018-10-08 Completed 33.33% $95.15 $90.31 -5.14% Stop
2018-02-06 2018-07-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.86% Interest Income
2018-03-01 2018-03-13 Completed 33.33% $93.19 $93.10 -0.15% Signal
2018-02-06 2018-03-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.10% Interest Income
2017-11-07 2018-02-08 Completed 33.33% $98.51 $92.67 -5.97% Stop
2017-06-05 2018-02-06 Completed 33.33% $96.46 $94.57 -2.02% Stop
2017-05-11 2018-02-06 Completed 33.33% $92.48 $94.57 2.20% Stop
2017-07-24 2017-11-07 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.32% Interest Income
2016-12-06 2017-07-24 Completed 33.33% $90.98 $97.09 6.66% Signal
2017-01-12 2017-06-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.28% Interest Income
2016-11-11 2017-05-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.30% Interest Income
2016-12-06 2017-01-12 Completed 33.33% $90.98 $93.86 3.12% Signal
2016-11-11 2016-12-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2016-11-11 2016-12-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2016-10-10 2016-11-11 Completed 33.33% $100.88 $93.55 -7.31% Stop
2016-10-10 2016-11-11 Completed 33.33% $100.88 $93.55 -7.31% Stop
2016-10-10 2016-11-11 Completed 33.33% $100.88 $93.55 -7.31% Stop
2016-09-16 2016-10-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2016-09-16 2016-10-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2016-09-16 2016-10-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2016-01-14 2016-09-16 Completed 33.33% $92.90 $102.01 9.75% Stop
2015-10-07 2016-09-16 Completed 33.33% $91.08 $102.01 11.94% Stop
2015-05-28 2016-09-16 Completed 33.33% $89.88 $102.01 13.44% Stop
2015-09-04 2016-01-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.04% Interest Income
2015-06-04 2015-10-07 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2015-05-28 2015-09-04 Completed 33.33% $89.88 $90.63 0.78% Signal
2015-05-28 2015-06-04 Completed 33.33% $89.88 $86.95 -3.30% Signal
2015-05-05 2015-05-28 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-05-05 2015-05-28 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-05-05 2015-05-28 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-03-11 2015-05-05 Completed 33.33% $92.25 $90.14 -2.34% Stop
2015-03-11 2015-05-05 Completed 33.33% $92.25 $90.14 -2.34% Stop
2015-03-11 2015-05-05 Completed 33.33% $92.25 $90.14 -2.34% Stop
2015-02-17 2015-03-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-02-17 2015-03-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-02-17 2015-03-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2014-10-17 2015-02-17 Completed 33.33% $87.60 $93.20 6.34% Stop
2014-04-25 2015-02-17 Completed 33.33% $79.39 $93.20 17.33% Stop
2014-02-14 2015-02-17 Completed 33.33% $75.51 $93.20 23.36% Stop
2013-08-20 2014-10-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.05% Interest Income
2013-03-05 2014-04-25 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.06% Interest Income
2013-07-08 2014-02-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2013-06-20 2013-08-20 Completed 33.33% $76.80 $71.69 -6.70% Stop
2013-06-17 2013-07-08 Completed 33.33% $79.07 $74.42 -5.93% Signal
2013-05-29 2013-06-20 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2012-11-07 2013-06-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.04% Interest Income
2013-01-30 2013-05-29 Completed 33.33% $80.01 $79.29 -0.95% Stop
2013-01-30 2013-03-05 Completed 33.33% $80.01 $81.33 1.59% Signal
2013-01-07 2013-01-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2013-01-07 2013-01-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2012-09-10 2013-01-07 Completed 33.33% $84.30 $81.18 -3.75% Stop
2012-09-10 2013-01-07 Completed 33.33% $84.30 $81.18 -3.75% Stop
2012-09-10 2012-11-07 Completed 33.33% $84.30 $84.65 0.37% Signal
2012-08-16 2012-09-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-08-16 2012-09-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-08-16 2012-09-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-06-05 2012-08-16 Completed 33.33% $87.04 $83.11 -4.56% Stop
2012-04-05 2012-08-16 Completed 33.33% $76.18 $83.11 9.04% Stop
2012-04-05 2012-08-16 Completed 33.33% $76.18 $83.11 9.04% Stop
2012-03-14 2012-06-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2012-03-14 2012-04-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-03-14 2012-04-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2011-11-04 2012-03-14 Completed 33.33% $77.01 $75.78 -1.65% Stop
2011-11-04 2012-03-14 Completed 33.33% $77.01 $75.78 -1.65% Stop
2011-11-04 2012-03-14 Completed 33.33% $77.01 $75.78 -1.65% Stop
2011-10-13 2011-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-10-13 2011-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-10-13 2011-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-08-04 2011-10-13 Completed 33.33% $67.58 $76.36 12.92% Stop
2011-05-18 2011-10-13 Completed 33.33% $62.89 $76.36 21.34% Stop
2010-12-09 2011-10-13 Completed 33.33% $60.02 $76.36 27.15% Stop
2011-03-11 2011-08-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2010-12-16 2011-05-18 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.04% Interest Income
2011-01-10 2011-03-11 Completed 33.33% $59.57 $59.62 0.04% Signal
2010-12-16 2011-01-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-11-09 2010-12-16 Completed 33.33% $62.94 $58.37 -7.30% Stop
2010-11-09 2010-12-16 Completed 33.33% $62.94 $58.37 -7.30% Stop
2010-11-16 2010-12-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-10-25 2010-11-16 Completed 33.33% $65.05 $60.65 -6.81% Stop
2010-10-18 2010-11-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-10-18 2010-11-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-03-16 2010-10-25 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.09% Interest Income
2010-06-29 2010-10-18 Completed 33.33% $63.08 $64.46 2.14% Stop
2010-05-24 2010-10-18 Completed 33.33% $61.88 $64.46 4.13% Stop
2009-07-24 2010-06-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.11% Interest Income
2010-01-14 2010-05-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.05% Interest Income
2010-01-06 2010-03-16 Completed 33.33% $55.73 $56.34 1.06% Signal
2010-01-06 2010-01-14 Completed 33.33% $55.73 $55.43 -0.58% Signal
2009-12-11 2010-01-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2009-12-11 2010-01-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2009-10-08 2009-12-11 Completed 33.33% $61.01 $56.56 -7.35% Stop
2009-05-22 2009-12-11 Completed 33.33% $56.49 $56.56 0.07% Stop
2009-04-30 2009-10-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.07% Interest Income
2009-05-22 2009-07-24 Completed 33.33% $56.49 $55.15 -2.43% Signal
2009-04-30 2009-05-22 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2009-04-30 2009-05-22 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2009-01-29 2009-04-30 Completed 33.33% $62.84 $58.82 -6.45% Stop
2009-01-29 2009-04-30 Completed 33.33% $62.84 $58.82 -6.45% Stop
2009-01-29 2009-04-30 Completed 33.33% $62.84 $58.82 -6.45% Stop
2009-01-06 2009-01-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2009-01-06 2009-01-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2009-01-06 2009-01-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2008-07-01 2009-01-06 Completed 33.33% $54.03 $66.45 22.92% Stop
2008-06-23 2009-01-06 Completed 33.33% $52.32 $66.45 26.94% Stop
2008-06-23 2009-01-06 Completed 33.33% $52.32 $66.45 26.94% Stop
2008-05-30 2008-07-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.16% Interest Income
2008-05-30 2008-06-23 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2008-05-30 2008-06-23 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2007-11-28 2008-05-30 Completed 33.33% $53.48 $52.16 -2.51% Stop
2007-09-27 2008-05-30 Completed 33.33% $49.49 $52.16 5.34% Stop
2006-07-18 2008-05-30 Completed 33.33% $45.01 $52.16 15.82% Stop
2007-06-12 2007-11-28 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.96% Interest Income
2007-03-16 2007-09-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 2.49% Interest Income
2006-07-17 2007-06-12 Completed 33.33% $45.16 $45.95 1.72% Stop
2006-07-17 2007-03-16 Completed 33.33% $45.16 $49.14 8.78% Signal
2006-06-23 2006-07-18 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.31% Interest Income
2006-04-05 2006-07-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.33% Interest Income
2006-01-05 2006-07-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 2.44% Interest Income
2006-05-03 2006-06-23 Completed 33.33% $43.99 $44.27 0.59% Signal
2006-04-10 2006-05-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.29% Interest Income
2005-11-30 2006-04-10 Completed 33.33% $46.52 $44.72 -3.91% Stop
2006-03-17 2006-04-05 Completed 33.33% $46.49 $45.54 -2.10% Signal
2005-10-18 2006-03-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.70% Interest Income
2005-11-30 2006-01-05 Completed 33.33% $46.52 $47.74 2.57% Signal
2005-11-07 2005-11-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.25% Interest Income
2005-11-07 2005-11-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.25% Interest Income
2004-10-27 2005-11-07 Completed 33.33% $44.09 $45.59 3.35% Stop
2004-07-26 2005-11-07 Completed 33.33% $41.12 $45.59 10.80% Stop
2004-08-06 2005-10-18 Completed 33.33% $42.05 $46.39 10.28% Signal
2004-09-02 2004-10-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.26% Interest Income
2004-07-26 2004-09-02 Completed 33.33% $41.12 $42.69 3.75% Signal
2004-07-22 2004-08-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.06% Interest Income
2004-07-22 2004-07-26 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2004-07-22 2004-07-26 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income