UPRO
ProShares S&P 500 Ultrapro (3x Leveraged S&P 500)
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for UPRO (ProShares S&P 500 Ultrapro (3x Leveraged S&P 500)) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -51.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -76.8%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 29.5%. The strategy executed 33 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
UPRO Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 42.32% | 40.08% | 12.49% | 18.08% | 15.53% | 27.90% | 13.42% | 29.49% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| Max Drawdown | -18.72% | -26.79% | -49.16% | -63.94% | -49.16% | -76.82% | -51.24% | -76.82% |
| % Time Invested | 87.3% | 100.0% | 62.7% | 100.0% | 67.9% | 100.0% | 67.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-10 | 2026-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-16 | 2026-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $113.53 | $110.16 | -3.02% | Stop | |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $68.84 | $102.72 | 49.14% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-26 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $79.76 | $59.26 | -25.73% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-02-06 | 2025-03-04 | Completed | 100% | $95.04 | $82.15 | -13.60% | Stop | |
| 2025-01-14 | 2025-02-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-27 | 2025-01-14 | Completed | 100% | $79.05 | $86.12 | 8.89% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-14 | 2024-08-05 | Completed | 100% | $66.74 | $61.00 | -8.65% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-22 | 2024-05-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-19 | 2024-04-22 | Completed | 100% | $40.67 | $58.81 | 44.54% | Stop | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-10-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-13 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 100% | $45.53 | $40.08 | -12.03% | Stop | |
| 2023-08-21 | 2023-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-15 | 2023-08-21 | Completed | 100% | $37.47 | $43.38 | 15.73% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-21 | 2023-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-28 | 2023-04-21 | Completed | 100% | $33.90 | $37.86 | 11.64% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-23 | 2023-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-11 | 2022-02-23 | Completed | 100% | $61.29 | $54.40 | -11.28% | Stop | |
| 2022-01-20 | 2022-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-26 | 2022-01-20 | Completed | 100% | $65.85 | $63.74 | -3.25% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-04 | 2021-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-29 | 2021-10-04 | Completed | 100% | $42.85 | $56.18 | 31.04% | Stop | |
| 2021-03-05 | 2021-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-20 | 2021-03-05 | Completed | 100% | $32.08 | $38.28 | 19.26% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-29 | 2020-11-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $26.48 | $24.74 | -6.62% | Stop | |
| 2020-09-08 | 2020-09-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-11 | 2020-09-08 | Completed | 100% | $27.56 | $27.27 | -1.11% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $10.95 | $10.37 | -5.35% | Stop | |
| 2020-02-26 | 2020-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-08-28 | 2020-02-26 | Completed | 100% | $23.56 | $30.61 | 29.83% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-06 | 2019-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-21 | 2019-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $26.29 | $23.83 | -9.43% | Stop | |
| 2019-05-30 | 2019-06-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-04-15 | 2019-05-30 | Completed | 100% | $25.45 | $22.29 | -12.47% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-21 | 2019-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-05 | 2018-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $21.97 | $20.22 | -8.01% | Stop | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-17 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 100% | $21.92 | $23.35 | 6.49% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-23 | 2018-04-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-01 | 2018-03-23 | Completed | 100% | $22.68 | $20.99 | -7.53% | Stop | |
| 2018-02-06 | 2018-03-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-21 | 2018-02-06 | Completed | 100% | $11.68 | $20.10 | 71.99% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-28 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-29 | 2016-06-28 | Completed | 100% | $10.13 | $9.41 | -7.12% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-24 | 2016-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-02-26 | 2015-08-24 | Completed | 100% | $11.24 | $7.68 | -31.71% | Stop | |
| 2015-02-03 | 2015-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-04 | 2015-02-03 | Completed | 100% | $9.72 | $9.97 | 2.48% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-13 | 2014-11-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-02-27 | 2014-10-13 | Completed | 100% | $7.47 | $8.29 | 10.86% | Stop | |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-02-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-07-17 | 2014-02-04 | Completed | 100% | $5.67 | $6.38 | 12.56% | Stop | |
| 2013-06-24 | 2013-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-12-03 | 2013-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $3.42 | $4.66 | 36.15% | Stop | |
| 2012-11-08 | 2012-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-04 | 2012-11-08 | Completed | 100% | $2.49 | $3.22 | 29.10% | Stop | |
| 2012-05-10 | 2012-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-15 | 2012-05-10 | Completed | 100% | $2.96 | $3.03 | 2.24% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-01 | 2012-02-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-06-20 | 2011-08-01 | Completed | 100% | $2.72 | $2.98 | 9.24% | Stop | |
| 2011-06-16 | 2011-06-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |