UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-09-06
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -11.8% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -19.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.6%. The strategy executed 57 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available
Compare quantitative moving average overlays for UUP:
Excess Return MMA Active Model
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Trading Horizon
Select risk profile & execution style for UUP:
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
🛡️ UUP Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection
Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →Peak Drawdown Defense
-11.8% (vs -19.4% B&H)
+7.6% shallower drawdown
Drawdown Shield
7.6% Cut
Protected capital vs -19.4% B&H
Capital Sheltered from Risk
46.4% of Time
Earning Treasury yield during downturns
* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.
📊 UUP Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| Max Drawdown | -1.60% | -3.65% | -8.16% | -10.37% | -8.43% | -14.24% | -11.84% | -19.41% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.52 | 0.94 | 0.85 | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.46 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.80 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 1.06 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| CAGR | 3.65% | 5.45% | 4.55% | 5.57% | 2.41% | 3.22% | 1.03% | 1.58% |
| % Time Invested | 37.4% | 100.0% | 59.9% | 100.0% | 57.7% | 100.0% | 53.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
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Explore Correlation Across Horizons →Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.
| Diversifier Asset | Category | 1Y Correlation (r) | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
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Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-02-27 | 2026-05-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.68% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-26 | 2026-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-11-12 | 2026-02-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.28 | $27.10 | -0.70% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-16 | 2025-11-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-08-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.35 | $26.70 | 1.27% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-29 | 2025-06-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.35 | $26.07 | -1.11% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-03 | 2025-04-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.71 | $26.44 | -4.64% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-07 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.40 | $27.11 | -4.58% | Stop | |
| 2024-10-08 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.52 | $27.11 | 2.20% | Stop | |
| 2024-12-02 | 2025-01-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-21 | 2024-12-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.81 | $27.78 | -0.15% | Signal | |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-11-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-16 | 2024-11-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.94 | $27.03 | 8.30% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-13 | 2024-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-15 | 2024-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.69 | $26.05 | -2.44% | Signal | |
| 2024-01-23 | 2024-04-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-08-16 | 2024-01-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.94 | $25.67 | 2.88% | Signal | |
| 2022-12-07 | 2023-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.46 | $25.96 | 6.09% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-21 | 2023-08-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-05 | 2023-08-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-07 | 2023-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.46 | $24.34 | -0.52% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-13 | 2023-01-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.47 | $24.53 | 14.15% | Signal | |
| 2022-11-14 | 2022-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-14 | 2022-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-05-04 | 2022-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.79 | $24.85 | 4.40% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-10 | 2022-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.40 | $24.85 | 16.10% | Stop | |
| 2021-01-27 | 2022-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-09-02 | 2021-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-01 | 2021-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-29 | 2021-07-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.03 | $21.41 | 1.79% | Signal | |
| 2020-07-10 | 2021-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2021-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.70 | $21.04 | -3.07% | Signal | |
| 2020-08-14 | 2020-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.70 | $21.60 | -0.53% | Signal | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2020-08-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-23 | 2020-08-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-07-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.27 | $22.14 | -4.90% | Stop | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-07-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.27 | $22.14 | -4.90% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-17 | 2020-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.22 | $22.49 | -3.17% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-01-08 | 2020-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-04 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.26 | $22.34 | 4.99% | Stop | |
| 2018-08-03 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.06 | $22.34 | 5.99% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-30 | 2020-01-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.78 | $22.54 | 8.44% | Signal | |
| 2017-11-10 | 2018-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-07-21 | 2018-08-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-31 | 2018-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-26 | 2018-01-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.29 | $19.41 | -4.38% | Signal | |
| 2017-04-20 | 2017-12-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-18 | 2017-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.23 | $20.50 | 1.31% | Signal | |
| 2017-07-27 | 2017-08-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-11 | 2017-07-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.52 | $20.28 | -5.79% | Stop | |
| 2017-06-14 | 2017-07-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.84 | $20.36 | -2.37% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-22 | 2017-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-16 | 2017-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.65 | $20.92 | -3.41% | Stop | |
| 2016-12-09 | 2017-05-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-08-17 | 2017-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.49 | $21.48 | 4.76% | Signal | |
| 2016-04-22 | 2016-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.55 | $21.91 | 6.57% | Signal | |
| 2016-05-03 | 2016-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-28 | 2016-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-16 | 2016-05-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.94 | $20.02 | -4.44% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-31 | 2016-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-22 | 2016-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.07 | $20.47 | -2.90% | Stop | |
| 2015-11-27 | 2016-03-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.78 | $20.77 | -4.69% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-11 | 2016-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-05-22 | 2016-01-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.07 | $21.43 | 1.65% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-10 | 2015-11-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-08-05 | 2015-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.16 | $20.92 | 15.12% | Signal | |
| 2015-04-30 | 2015-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-30 | 2015-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-01-08 | 2015-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.46 | $20.94 | 2.32% | Stop | |
| 2014-09-19 | 2015-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.80 | $20.94 | 11.37% | Stop | |
| 2013-09-06 | 2015-01-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-10-29 | 2014-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-08-14 | 2014-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-10-25 | 2013-10-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.83 | $17.88 | 0.23% | Signal | |
| 2013-10-03 | 2013-10-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-02-25 | 2013-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.52 | $17.99 | -2.89% | Stop | |
| 2012-10-09 | 2013-09-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.28 | $18.57 | 1.55% | Signal | |
| 2013-02-25 | 2013-08-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.52 | $18.46 | -0.37% | Signal | |
| 2012-12-14 | 2013-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-10-10 | 2013-02-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-10-09 | 2012-12-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.28 | $18.24 | -0.28% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-11 | 2012-10-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.57 | $18.30 | -1.49% | Signal | |
| 2012-09-17 | 2012-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-17 | 2012-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-05-10 | 2012-09-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.51 | $18.08 | -2.40% | Stop | |
| 2011-12-27 | 2012-09-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.67 | $18.08 | -3.23% | Stop | |
| 2012-04-19 | 2012-05-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-05 | 2012-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-03 | 2012-04-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.70 | $18.45 | -1.39% | Signal | |
| 2010-11-19 | 2011-12-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-13 | 2011-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-10-26 | 2010-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.79 | $18.96 | 0.88% | Signal | |
| 2010-10-04 | 2010-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-08-05 | 2010-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.64 | $18.99 | -3.37% | Stop | |
| 2010-02-16 | 2010-09-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.71 | $19.89 | 0.88% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-14 | 2010-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-04 | 2010-07-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.29 | $20.31 | 0.03% | Stop | |
| 2009-07-23 | 2010-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-10-09 | 2010-03-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.91 | $19.80 | 4.68% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-21 | 2010-02-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-17 | 2009-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-15 | 2009-09-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.15 | $18.96 | -5.98% | Stop | |
| 2009-06-15 | 2009-07-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.15 | $19.64 | -2.58% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-21 | 2009-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-21 | 2009-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-30 | 2009-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.54 | $20.28 | -5.90% | Signal | |
| 2009-03-30 | 2009-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.54 | $20.28 | -5.90% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-30 | 2009-05-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.54 | $20.28 | -5.90% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-26 | 2009-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-26 | 2009-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-26 | 2009-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |