VCIT Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VCIT (Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -20.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.7%. The strategy executed 31 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VCIT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.60% | 6.60% | 2.29% | 1.33% | 3.21% | 3.07% | 3.37% | 3.66% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.55 | 1.56 | 0.73 | 0.20 | 0.88 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 0.63 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.79% | -2.96% | -5.70% | -20.56% | -8.30% | -20.56% | -8.30% | -20.56% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 75.8% | 100.0% | 86.3% | 100.0% | 90.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2025-08-06 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $80.17 | $82.85 | 3.34% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $76.10 | $82.85 | 8.87% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.58 | $81.63 | 5.22% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-08-06 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.96% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.61% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.29% | Interest Income |
| 2024-03-26 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.64 | $77.32 | 6.45% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.82 | $75.43 | -0.51% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-16 | 2024-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.87% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-11 | 2024-05-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.55 | $72.96 | 0.56% | Signal |
| 2023-09-25 | 2024-03-26 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.37% | Interest Income |
| 2023-07-11 | 2024-01-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.26% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-08 | 2023-09-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.67 | $67.78 | -2.71% | Signal |
| 2023-06-21 | 2023-07-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.22 | $68.73 | -0.70% | Signal |
| 2023-06-02 | 2023-06-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income |
| 2023-05-26 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-03 | 2023-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $70.02 | $68.50 | -2.17% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-05-08 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-21 | 2022-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $72.76 | $72.23 | -0.73% | Signal |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-03-21 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-02-14 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.51 | $74.20 | 6.74% | Stop |
| 2021-09-15 | 2022-02-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $79.12 | $74.56 | -5.75% | Signal |
| 2021-11-24 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-15 | 2021-11-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.87 | $76.90 | -2.50% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-09-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-06-01 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-15 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-06-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.51 | $77.44 | 11.40% | Signal |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-30 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2020-05-21 | 2021-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $74.20 | $76.03 | 2.46% | Signal |
| 2020-04-21 | 2020-05-21 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.51 | $72.66 | 4.53% | Signal |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2019-01-25 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $64.46 | $69.38 | 7.63% | Stop |
| 2018-08-20 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.70 | $69.38 | 8.92% | Stop |
| 2018-08-20 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.70 | $69.38 | 8.92% | Stop |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-01-25 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-16 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2018-08-20 | 2018-11-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.70 | $62.67 | -1.62% | Signal |
| 2018-07-16 | 2018-08-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2018-03-15 | 2018-08-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income |
| 2018-01-19 | 2018-08-20 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.31% | Interest Income |
| 2014-06-24 | 2018-07-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.85 | $63.11 | 11.00% | Signal |
| 2017-07-11 | 2018-03-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $63.47 | $62.88 | -0.93% | Signal |
| 2017-04-21 | 2018-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.98 | $64.00 | 1.61% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-07-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-21 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2017-02-24 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-05 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2015-11-19 | 2017-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.65 | $62.29 | 6.21% | Signal |
| 2016-03-21 | 2016-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.18 | $60.97 | 1.31% | Signal |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-03-21 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2016-02-11 | 2016-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-30 | 2016-02-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.92 | $58.84 | -0.14% | Signal |
| 2015-11-03 | 2015-11-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-28 | 2015-11-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2015-09-02 | 2015-10-30 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2014-02-28 | 2015-09-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.58 | $58.32 | 4.92% | Signal |
| 2015-08-04 | 2015-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-07-08 | 2015-08-03 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-11-27 | 2015-07-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.19 | $58.60 | 8.15% | Signal |
| 2014-05-02 | 2014-06-24 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2014-04-23 | 2014-05-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-18 | 2014-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.43 | $56.03 | 4.87% | Signal |
| 2014-02-04 | 2014-02-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2014-01-03 | 2014-02-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2013-12-03 | 2014-01-02 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-06 | 2013-12-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2013-08-02 | 2013-11-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-18 | 2013-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.43 | $53.32 | -0.21% | Signal |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-08-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-07-18 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2013-06-25 | 2013-07-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.10% | Interest Income |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.17 | $52.43 | 6.63% | Stop |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.17 | $52.43 | 6.63% | Stop |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.17 | $52.43 | 6.63% | Stop |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |