VCIT
Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VCIT (Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -15.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -20.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.5%. The strategy executed 11 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
VCIT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.29% | 3.29% | 2.52% | 0.70% | 1.14% | 2.64% | 2.28% | 3.53% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.55 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.96% | -2.96% | -4.80% | -20.56% | -15.92% | -20.56% | -15.92% | -20.56% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 71.8% | 100.0% | 71.1% | 100.0% | 74.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-09-14 | 2023-12-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.53% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-25 | 2023-09-14 | Completed | 100% | $69.23 | $68.20 | -1.54% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-08 | 2023-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-15 | 2021-12-08 | Completed | 100% | $78.23 | $77.22 | -1.35% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-26 | 2021-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-21 | 2021-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $73.60 | $75.60 | 2.66% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-17 | 2020-05-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-17 | Completed | 100% | $72.50 | $72.54 | 0.02% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-20 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-09 | 2020-03-20 | Completed | 100% | $63.15 | $63.68 | 0.79% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-20 | 2019-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-20 | 2018-11-20 | Completed | 100% | $63.18 | $62.04 | -1.86% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-20 | 2018-08-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.93% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-15 | 2018-02-20 | Completed | 100% | $62.49 | $62.43 | -0.15% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-20 | 2017-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-04 | 2016-12-20 | Completed | 100% | $58.22 | $60.17 | 3.31% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-05 | 2016-02-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-12 | 2016-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $57.85 | $57.92 | 0.06% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-10 | 2015-11-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-12-27 | 2015-07-10 | Completed | 100% | $53.40 | $57.50 | 7.62% | Signal | |
| 2013-07-02 | 2013-12-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-07-02 | Completed | 100% | $48.77 | $52.51 | 7.61% | Signal | |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |