VCIT

Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF

TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY

2026-09-09

Executive Summary

The quantitative backtest for VCIT (Vanguard Intermediate-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -8.3% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -20.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.5%. The strategy executed 32 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.

📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available

Compare quantitative moving average overlays for VCIT:

Excess Return MMA Active Model

Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.

Excess Return MMA CA

Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.

Excess Return SMA

Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.

Moving Average (50/200)

Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.

🎯 Trading Horizon

Select risk profile & execution style for VCIT:

🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon

Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.

⚔️ Tactical Trading

Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.

🛡️ VCIT Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection

Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →

Peak Drawdown Defense

-8.3% (vs -20.6% B&H)

+12.3% shallower drawdown

Downside Efficiency

1.02 Sortino

+0.24 vs 0.78 B&H

Capital Sheltered from Risk

27.0% of Time

Earning Treasury yield during downturns

* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.

📊 VCIT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric	1Y		5Y		10Y		Full
	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H
Max Drawdown	-2.80%	-2.96%	-5.58%	-20.35%	-8.30%	-20.56%	-8.30%	-20.56%
Sharpe Ratio	0.25	0.06	0.56	0.09	0.75	0.42	0.85	0.60
Sortino Ratio	0.36	0.09	0.71	0.14	0.83	0.53	1.02	0.78
CAGR	0.86%	0.24%	1.71%	0.60%	2.64%	2.64%	3.09%	3.48%
% Time Invested	86.1%	100.0%	52.0%	100.0%	66.3%	100.0%	73.0%	100.0%
Trades / Year	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.1	0.0	2.2	0.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Hydrating Performance Trajectory... Loading historical performance data

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of VCIT under the Excess Return MMA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 3.1% CAGR with a -8.3% Max Drawdown across 32 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 3.5% CAGR and -20.6% Max Drawdown).

Histogram of monthly return distribution for VCIT under Excess Return MMA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness. — **Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile.** Monthly return distribution for **VCIT** under **Excess Return MMA** (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

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Top Diversifiers for VCIT

Explore Correlation Across Horizons →

Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.

Diversifier Asset	Category	1Y Correlation (r)	Action
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Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry Date	Exit Date	Type	Allocation	Entry Price	Exit Price	Net Return %	Exit Reason
🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock
2025-08-06	2026-06-18	Completed	33.33%	$78.85	$81.58	3.40%	Signal
2026-03-23	2026-06-01	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.69%	Interest Income
2025-04-30	2026-03-23	Completed	33.33%	$76.30	$80.28	5.16%	Signal
2025-04-07	2025-08-06	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.42%	Interest Income
2024-12-30	2025-04-30	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.39%	Interest Income
2024-03-26	2025-04-07	Completed	33.33%	$71.44	$76.05	6.40%	Signal
2024-08-02	2024-12-30	Completed	33.33%	$74.57	$74.19	-0.56%	Signal
2022-03-30	2024-08-05	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.11	10.75%	Interest Income
2024-05-16	2024-08-02	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.12%	Interest Income
2024-01-11	2024-05-16	Completed	33.33%	$71.36	$71.76	0.51%	Signal
2023-09-25	2024-03-26	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.71%	Interest Income
2023-07-11	2024-01-11	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.77%	Interest Income
2023-05-08	2023-09-25	Completed	33.33%	$68.53	$66.67	-2.76%	Signal
2023-06-21	2023-07-11	Completed	33.33%	$68.08	$67.60	-0.75%	Signal
2023-05-26	2023-06-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.34%	Interest Income
2023-02-03	2023-05-26	Completed	33.33%	$68.87	$67.37	-2.22%	Signal
2022-02-14	2023-05-08	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.04	3.73%	Interest Income
2021-11-24	2023-02-03	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	2.49%	Interest Income
2022-03-21	2022-03-30	Completed	33.33%	$71.56	$71.04	-0.78%	Signal
2022-02-25	2022-03-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2020-04-06	2022-02-25	Completed	33.33%	$68.37	$72.98	6.69%	Stop
2021-09-15	2022-02-14	Completed	33.33%	$77.82	$73.34	-5.80%	Signal
2021-07-15	2021-11-24	Completed	33.33%	$77.58	$75.64	-2.55%	Signal
2021-06-01	2021-09-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2021-03-30	2021-07-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-04-06	2021-06-01	Completed	33.33%	$68.37	$76.17	11.34%	Signal
2020-05-21	2021-03-30	Completed	33.33%	$72.98	$74.78	2.41%	Signal
2020-04-21	2020-05-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-04-06	2020-04-21	Completed	33.33%	$68.37	$71.47	4.48%	Signal
2020-03-13	2020-04-06	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-03-13	2020-04-06	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2020-03-13	2020-04-06	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2019-01-25	2020-03-13	Completed	33.33%	$63.40	$68.24	7.58%	Stop
2018-08-20	2020-03-13	Completed	33.33%	$62.65	$68.24	8.86%	Stop
2018-08-20	2020-03-13	Completed	33.33%	$62.65	$68.24	8.86%	Stop
2018-11-16	2019-01-25	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.43%	Interest Income
2018-08-20	2018-11-16	Completed	33.33%	$62.65	$61.64	-1.67%	Signal
2018-07-16	2018-08-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.20%	Interest Income
2018-03-15	2018-08-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.82%	Interest Income
2018-01-19	2018-08-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.06%	Interest Income
2014-06-24	2018-07-16	Completed	33.33%	$55.92	$62.07	10.94%	Signal
2017-07-11	2018-03-15	Completed	33.33%	$62.43	$61.85	-0.98%	Signal
2017-04-21	2018-01-19	Completed	33.33%	$61.95	$62.94	1.56%	Signal
2017-02-24	2017-07-11	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.32%	Interest Income
2016-12-05	2017-04-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.23%	Interest Income
2015-11-19	2017-02-24	Completed	33.33%	$57.69	$61.27	6.16%	Signal
2016-03-21	2016-12-05	Completed	33.33%	$59.19	$59.96	1.26%	Signal
2016-02-11	2016-03-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.03%	Interest Income
2015-10-30	2016-02-11	Completed	33.33%	$57.95	$57.87	-0.19%	Signal
2015-09-28	2015-11-19	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2015-07-08	2015-10-30	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2014-02-28	2015-09-28	Completed	33.33%	$54.67	$57.36	4.87%	Signal
2013-11-27	2015-07-08	Completed	33.33%	$53.29	$57.64	8.10%	Signal
2014-04-23	2014-06-24	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2013-07-18	2014-04-23	Completed	33.33%	$52.55	$55.11	4.82%	Signal
2013-08-06	2014-02-28	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.03%	Interest Income
2013-06-25	2013-11-27	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2013-07-18	2013-08-06	Completed	33.33%	$52.55	$52.44	-0.26%	Signal
2013-06-25	2013-07-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2013-06-25	2013-07-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2011-11-16	2013-06-25	Completed	33.33%	$48.37	$51.57	6.58%	Stop
2011-11-16	2013-06-25	Completed	33.33%	$48.37	$51.57	6.58%	Stop
2011-11-16	2013-06-25	Completed	33.33%	$48.37	$51.57	6.58%	Stop
2011-11-14	2011-11-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2011-11-14	2011-11-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2011-11-14	2011-11-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income

Next Steps: Portfolio Integration & Comparative Analysis

Single-ticker trend following is designed to truncate tail risk inside a broader portfolio. View where VCIT ranks across 40+ tracked assets, evaluate correlation against non-correlated diversifiers, or model it inside a custom all-weather asset mix.

📊 View Full 40-Asset Backtest Matrix → 🛠️ Build Custom Portfolio with VCIT → ⚖️ Compare VCIT vs Non-Correlated Assets →