VCLT
Vanguard Long-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VCLT (Vanguard Long-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -21.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -34.3%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 3.3%. The strategy executed 12 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
VCLT Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 1.58% | 1.94% | -0.62% | -3.32% | 0.93% | 1.53% | 1.62% | 3.32% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.21 | 0.25 | -0.08 | -0.27 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | -5.25% | -5.25% | -13.46% | -34.31% | -21.90% | -34.31% | -21.90% | -34.31% |
| % Time Invested | 92.5% | 100.0% | 61.8% | 100.0% | 63.0% | 100.0% | 66.3% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-07-29 | 2026-05-07 | Completed | 100% | $71.23 | $74.47 | 4.49% | Signal | |
| 2025-01-28 | 2025-07-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-03 | 2025-01-28 | Completed | 100% | $68.81 | $69.44 | 0.86% | Signal | |
| 2023-08-23 | 2024-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.96% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-27 | 2023-08-23 | Completed | 100% | $67.52 | $63.68 | -5.74% | Signal | |
| 2022-02-01 | 2023-01-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-20 | 2022-02-01 | Completed | 100% | $86.56 | $80.64 | -6.88% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-10 | 2021-07-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-03 | 2021-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $79.32 | $78.96 | -0.51% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2020-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2020-05-01 | Completed | 100% | $72.59 | $77.72 | 7.02% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-28 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $62.64 | $69.91 | 11.55% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-16 | 2019-01-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-18 | 2018-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $61.79 | $62.74 | 1.50% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-15 | 2017-05-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-17 | 2016-12-15 | Completed | 100% | $56.28 | $57.91 | 2.85% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-11 | 2016-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-10-24 | 2015-06-11 | Completed | 100% | $48.71 | $52.94 | 8.63% | Signal | |
| 2013-06-24 | 2013-10-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-05-01 | 2013-06-24 | Completed | 100% | $52.55 | $46.08 | -12.35% | Signal | |
| 2013-03-15 | 2013-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-03-15 | Completed | 100% | $44.81 | $49.36 | 10.08% | Signal | |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |