VCSH
Vanguard Short-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-15
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VCSH (Vanguard Short-term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -12.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -12.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.7%. The strategy executed 5 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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VCSH Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.21% | 4.21% | 3.72% | 2.38% | 2.88% | 2.68% | 2.83% | 2.71% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.13 | 2.13 | 1.68 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Max Drawdown | -1.40% | -1.40% | -2.15% | -9.48% | -12.86% | -12.86% | -12.86% | -12.86% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.6% | 100.0% | 79.6% | 100.0% | 84.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2021-11-18 | 2023-01-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-05-27 | 2021-11-18 | Completed | 100% | $67.74 | $69.44 | 2.46% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-07 | 2020-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-08 | 2020-04-07 | Completed | 100% | $61.58 | $65.35 | 6.07% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-09 | 2018-08-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.91% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2018-02-09 | Completed | 100% | $60.71 | $61.24 | 0.81% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-28 | 2017-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-17 | 2016-12-28 | Completed | 100% | $56.26 | $60.02 | 6.63% | Signal | |
| 2013-07-17 | 2013-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-11-16 | 2013-07-17 | Completed | 100% | $53.28 | $56.29 | 5.61% | Signal | |
| 2011-11-14 | 2011-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |