VEA
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-06-16
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VEA (Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -21.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.6%. The strategy executed 51 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VEA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 32.20% | 32.20% | 6.64% | 9.85% | 9.03% | 10.77% | 5.86% | 8.60% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.69 | 1.69 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.78 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.63% | -11.63% | -16.67% | -29.71% | -18.04% | -35.74% | -21.11% | -35.74% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 90.6% | 100.0% | 93.4% | 100.0% | 92.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-23 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $52.78 | $72.32 | 37.03% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-05-01 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $51.42 | $72.32 | 40.64% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2023-11-27 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $42.20 | $72.32 | 71.39% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-02-26 | 2025-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.03% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-26 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.51 | $46.06 | -8.85% | Stop |
| 2024-12-19 | 2025-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-02-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.69 | $49.89 | 14.14% | Signal |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-12-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.69 | $46.24 | 5.78% | Signal |
| 2023-11-17 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income |
| 2023-09-22 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.27% | Interest Income |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-11-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.78% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-05 | 2023-11-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.07 | $41.77 | 1.65% | Signal |
| 2023-01-03 | 2023-09-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.32 | $41.13 | 7.28% | Signal |
| 2023-03-14 | 2023-04-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.27 | $39.51 | -4.32% | Stop |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.27 | $39.51 | -4.32% | Stop |
| 2022-09-07 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.44% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-03 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-19 | 2023-01-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.07% | Interest Income |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.85 | $34.87 | -2.78% | Signal |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.91 | $36.60 | -14.75% | Stop |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.88 | $39.05 | 45.19% | Stop |
| 2020-10-02 | 2022-03-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.23 | $41.52 | 21.25% | Signal |
| 2022-01-12 | 2022-01-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.21 | $44.54 | -1.54% | Signal |
| 2021-12-03 | 2022-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-07-02 | 2021-12-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.07 | $43.45 | 31.31% | Signal |
| 2020-04-30 | 2020-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-26 | 2020-07-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.75 | $29.96 | 16.29% | Signal |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.75 | $27.25 | 5.74% | Signal |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.10 | $31.04 | -9.01% | Stop |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.10 | $32.68 | -4.21% | Stop |
| 2019-07-01 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.37 | $32.68 | -4.99% | Stop |
| 2019-08-12 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income |
| 2019-02-26 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.24% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-27 | 2019-08-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.01 | $32.42 | -1.84% | Signal |
| 2018-10-12 | 2019-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.68% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-12 | 2019-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.06% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-15 | 2019-02-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.36 | $32.94 | 4.98% | Signal |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2017-03-27 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.75 | $31.56 | 6.06% | Stop |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.27 | $32.41 | -5.49% | Stop |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.27 | $32.41 | -5.49% | Stop |
| 2018-08-16 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-01 | 2018-09-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income |
| 2016-08-09 | 2018-08-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.62 | $33.34 | 20.62% | Signal |
| 2017-02-07 | 2018-05-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.69 | $35.11 | 22.35% | Signal |
| 2016-01-07 | 2017-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-29 | 2017-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2016-05-11 | 2016-12-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.72 | $27.59 | 3.18% | Signal |
| 2015-11-10 | 2016-08-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-05-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.72 | $25.62 | -7.59% | Stop |
| 2015-10-09 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.72 | $25.62 | -7.59% | Stop |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.15 | $27.29 | 0.44% | Signal |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-21 | 2015-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2015-04-29 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $30.03 | $27.26 | -9.27% | Stop |
| 2012-12-07 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.81 | $27.26 | 19.45% | Stop |
| 2015-03-19 | 2015-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.63 | $27.62 | -3.55% | Signal |
| 2014-12-10 | 2015-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-10-01 | 2015-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2014-11-07 | 2014-12-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.55 | $27.66 | 0.34% | Signal |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2012-11-12 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.73 | $25.88 | 19.00% | Stop |
| 2012-09-11 | 2014-10-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.85 | $28.06 | 28.36% | Signal |
| 2012-05-08 | 2012-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2012-09-19 | 2012-11-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2012-05-16 | 2012-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.93 | $22.53 | 12.97% | Signal |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-06-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.49 | $20.07 | 2.92% | Signal |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2012-02-07 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.63 | $19.55 | -9.67% | Stop |
| 2011-09-23 | 2012-05-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2011-12-19 | 2012-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.34 | $20.94 | 8.18% | Signal |
| 2011-08-01 | 2012-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2011-11-25 | 2011-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-30 | 2011-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.86 | $18.53 | -11.23% | Stop |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.94 | $18.39 | -12.21% | Stop |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.14 | $20.60 | 13.48% | Stop |
| 2010-11-19 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.20 | $21.48 | -3.26% | Stop |
| 2010-09-16 | 2011-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.77 | $23.65 | 13.84% | Signal |
| 2010-06-30 | 2010-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2010-03-08 | 2010-09-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-06-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.14 | $18.05 | -0.56% | Signal |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-03-08 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.94 | $18.94 | -9.59% | Stop |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.43 | $18.94 | -7.34% | Stop |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $20.43 | $20.94 | 2.44% | Signal |
| 2010-02-01 | 2010-03-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-08-06 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $19.32 | $19.26 | -0.36% | Stop |
| 2009-07-21 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $18.15 | $19.26 | 6.03% | Stop |
| 2009-12-30 | 2010-02-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.00 | $20.16 | -4.02% | Stop |
| 2009-07-17 | 2009-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-17 | 2009-08-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2009-07-17 | 2009-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |