VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-US Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -24.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -35.0%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 10.4%. The strategy executed 51 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VEU Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 22.28% | 22.28% | 5.45% | 8.86% | 8.13% | 9.58% | 6.78% | 10.45% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.21 | 1.21 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| Max Drawdown | -11.43% | -11.43% | -17.07% | -29.14% | -17.58% | -34.98% | -24.41% | -34.98% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 88.0% | 100.0% | 92.2% | 100.0% | 91.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.21 | $52.22 | 1.92% | Signal | |
| 2024-12-30 | 2025-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.21 | $55.34 | 8.01% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-10 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-27 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-13 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $48.60 | $47.57 | -2.17% | Signal | |
| 2023-01-09 | 2023-09-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $47.41 | $47.68 | 0.50% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-13 | 2023-04-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.09 | $46.09 | -6.16% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.09 | $46.09 | -6.16% | Stop | |
| 2022-08-23 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-16 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-10-06 | 2023-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-28 | 2022-08-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.10 | $44.63 | -1.09% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-06 | 2022-07-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-30 | 2022-07-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $51.20 | $43.30 | -15.46% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-08 | 2022-03-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2022-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.92 | $47.05 | 42.83% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-04 | 2022-02-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.04 | $52.69 | 31.55% | Signal | |
| 2020-06-04 | 2021-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.04 | $51.59 | 28.79% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-04 | 2020-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-27 | 2020-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.90 | $35.24 | 10.41% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.90 | $33.39 | 4.61% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.44 | $38.04 | -8.25% | Stop | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.44 | $40.07 | -3.36% | Stop | |
| 2019-06-24 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.36 | $40.07 | -3.19% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-06 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-22 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-22 | 2019-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.32 | $39.36 | -2.42% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2019-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-11 | 2019-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.66% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-05 | 2019-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.60 | $39.95 | 3.46% | Signal | |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.06 | $37.34 | -4.45% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.06 | $37.34 | -4.45% | Stop | |
| 2018-08-13 | 2018-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-04 | 2018-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-12 | 2018-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-10 | 2018-10-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.44 | $38.94 | 9.82% | Stop | |
| 2016-08-02 | 2018-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.06 | $40.69 | 23.01% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-10 | 2018-05-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.05 | $42.17 | 20.25% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-07 | 2017-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-30 | 2017-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-04 | 2016-12-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.82 | $33.59 | 5.50% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-19 | 2016-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-08 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.69 | $30.09 | -8.01% | Stop | |
| 2015-10-08 | 2016-01-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.69 | $30.09 | -8.01% | Stop | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.39 | $33.19 | 2.42% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-14 | 2015-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-06-15 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.46 | $32.43 | -8.59% | Stop | |
| 2012-12-07 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.56 | $32.43 | 9.67% | Stop | |
| 2015-03-25 | 2015-08-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.73 | $34.34 | -3.94% | Signal | |
| 2015-01-05 | 2015-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-13 | 2015-03-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-01-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.15 | $32.95 | -3.57% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-11-19 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.20 | $32.21 | 14.17% | Stop | |
| 2013-09-12 | 2014-10-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.82 | $33.50 | 2.03% | Signal | |
| 2013-08-15 | 2013-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-12 | 2013-08-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.65 | $32.05 | 11.80% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-03 | 2012-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-19 | 2012-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-05-15 | 2012-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.20 | $29.17 | 11.25% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-12 | 2012-06-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.43 | $26.18 | 2.89% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-18 | 2012-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-03 | 2012-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.38 | $25.49 | -10.23% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-23 | 2012-05-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-27 | 2012-05-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.30 | $28.16 | -0.54% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-01 | 2012-02-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-05 | 2011-10-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-30 | 2011-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.40 | $24.00 | -12.44% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.38 | $23.80 | -13.09% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-08 | 2011-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.67 | $26.90 | 13.56% | Stop | |
| 2010-11-11 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.54 | $28.20 | -4.59% | Stop | |
| 2010-09-14 | 2011-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.15 | $30.92 | 13.83% | Signal | |
| 2010-07-09 | 2010-11-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-07 | 2010-09-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2010-07-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.67 | $24.99 | 5.51% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-28 | 2010-06-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.26 | $23.45 | -3.37% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-06 | 2010-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.33 | $24.56 | -6.78% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.29 | $24.56 | 42.01% | Stop | |
| 2010-05-04 | 2010-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.40 | $25.25 | -4.39% | Signal | |
| 2010-04-07 | 2010-05-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.33 | $27.87 | 5.79% | Signal | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.29 | $24.49 | 41.62% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.29 | $24.49 | 41.62% | Stop | |
| 2009-02-27 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-02-27 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-02-27 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |