VGK
Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for VGK (Vanguard European Stock Index Fund ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -63.6%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 5.2%. The strategy executed 63 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
VGK Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 15.93% | 15.80% | 4.63% | 8.92% | 8.99% | 9.93% | 5.09% | 5.25% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| Max Drawdown | -12.09% | -12.09% | -20.20% | -32.74% | -20.20% | -37.24% | -28.85% | -63.61% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 92.0% | 100.0% | 93.9% | 100.0% | 88.2% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-01-22 | 2025-05-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $69.12 | $62.23 | -10.01% | Stop | |
| 2024-11-26 | 2025-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2025-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.23 | $63.56 | 9.10% | Signal | |
| 2023-12-15 | 2024-11-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.23 | $61.43 | 5.45% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-14 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-09-18 | 2023-12-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-11-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.50 | $54.53 | -0.00% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-16 | 2023-10-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-27 | 2023-09-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.61 | $54.40 | 9.59% | Signal | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $54.50 | $50.39 | -7.59% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-19 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-27 | 2022-12-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-07-11 | 2022-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.48 | $43.91 | -3.50% | Signal | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-07-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-29 | 2022-06-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $55.10 | $46.72 | -15.26% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-10 | 2022-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $52.02 | $49.22 | -5.42% | Stop | |
| 2020-06-04 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.94 | $54.05 | 28.83% | Stop | |
| 2021-12-30 | 2022-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.94 | $55.97 | -5.09% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-02 | 2021-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-06-04 | 2021-12-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.94 | $55.93 | 33.29% | Signal | |
| 2020-12-24 | 2021-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-12-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.20 | $50.20 | 46.71% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-30 | 2020-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-30 | 2020-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.42 | $37.69 | 16.18% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-04-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.42 | $34.54 | 6.47% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.62 | $39.81 | -8.79% | Stop | |
| 2019-09-13 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.62 | $42.40 | -2.86% | Stop | |
| 2019-06-27 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.63 | $42.40 | -2.88% | Stop | |
| 2019-08-21 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-02-14 | 2019-09-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.31% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-26 | 2019-08-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.06 | $41.90 | -0.41% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-09 | 2019-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-05-02 | 2019-03-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.98% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-11-15 | 2019-02-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.82 | $40.44 | 1.52% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-06-24 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.57 | $39.97 | 22.66% | Stop | |
| 2016-06-24 | 2018-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.57 | $44.31 | 35.96% | Signal | |
| 2017-02-14 | 2018-05-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.35 | $45.10 | 24.03% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-12 | 2017-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-09-26 | 2016-12-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.29 | $34.67 | -1.80% | Signal | |
| 2016-08-31 | 2016-09-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-07-21 | 2016-08-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.27 | $35.30 | 2.97% | Signal | |
| 2016-06-28 | 2016-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-05-12 | 2016-06-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.91 | $32.28 | -7.57% | Stop | |
| 2015-11-11 | 2016-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-22 | 2016-06-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2016-05-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-11-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.36 | $36.24 | -0.38% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-06-12 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.84 | $36.53 | -5.99% | Stop | |
| 2015-03-20 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.14 | $36.53 | -4.26% | Stop | |
| 2014-11-07 | 2015-07-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.38 | $38.78 | 6.54% | Signal | |
| 2014-11-19 | 2015-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-09-12 | 2015-03-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-11-03 | 2014-11-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.64 | $37.34 | 1.87% | Signal | |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-10-10 | 2014-11-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-01-24 | 2014-10-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.02 | $33.98 | 6.09% | Stop | |
| 2012-10-15 | 2014-10-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $29.12 | $35.61 | 22.24% | Stop | |
| 2012-09-07 | 2014-09-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.90 | $38.86 | 34.37% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-09 | 2013-01-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-09-21 | 2012-10-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-05-16 | 2012-09-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.57 | $29.78 | 16.40% | Signal | |
| 2012-06-19 | 2012-09-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-06-11 | 2012-06-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $25.38 | $25.76 | 1.43% | Signal | |
| 2012-05-17 | 2012-06-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-01-27 | 2012-05-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $27.11 | $25.18 | -7.18% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-13 | 2012-05-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-19 | 2012-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.63 | $26.17 | 6.19% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2012-01-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-11-25 | 2011-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-10-17 | 2011-11-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.43 | $23.51 | -11.10% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-23 | 2011-10-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-29 | 2011-09-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.65 | $22.93 | -14.00% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-25 | 2011-09-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.55 | $24.14 | -9.14% | Stop | |
| 2011-08-05 | 2011-08-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-03 | 2011-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-06-01 | 2011-08-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $22.85 | $27.62 | 20.80% | Stop | |
| 2010-11-16 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $28.51 | $29.06 | 1.89% | Stop | |
| 2010-09-09 | 2011-08-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.28 | $29.06 | 10.52% | Stop | |
| 2010-06-23 | 2010-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-09-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-28 | 2010-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $23.47 | $24.29 | 3.43% | Signal | |
| 2010-05-07 | 2010-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-05-06 | 2010-05-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-03-09 | 2010-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.41 | $23.41 | -11.40% | Stop | |
| 2010-03-03 | 2010-05-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $26.04 | $24.32 | -6.65% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2010-03-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-02-08 | 2010-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-08-07 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $24.84 | $24.67 | -0.71% | Stop | |
| 2009-05-26 | 2010-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $21.40 | $24.67 | 15.24% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-31 | 2009-05-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.61 | $17.10 | -2.94% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.61 | $17.10 | -2.94% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-19 | 2009-03-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $17.61 | $17.10 | -2.94% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-17 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-10 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-27 | 2009-03-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-05 | 2008-09-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $31.98 | $27.16 | -15.09% | Stop | |
| 2008-07-14 | 2008-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-07-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.82 | $32.31 | -4.50% | Stop | |
| 2008-05-30 | 2008-07-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.33 | $31.87 | -12.34% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-18 | 2008-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-11 | 2008-02-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.22 | $34.78 | 7.91% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-17 | 2008-02-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-07 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.77 | $31.26 | -4.64% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-13 | 2008-01-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.14 | $34.29 | -10.15% | Stop | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2008-01-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.84 | $34.81 | -2.91% | Stop | |
| 2007-09-18 | 2007-11-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.60% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-09-11 | 2007-09-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.84 | $35.97 | 0.33% | Signal | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-08-17 | 2007-09-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-07 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.77 | $34.37 | 4.84% | Stop | |
| 2007-03-07 | 2007-08-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $32.77 | $34.37 | 4.84% | Stop | |
| 2007-03-05 | 2007-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-05 | 2007-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-03-05 | 2007-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |