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DASHBOARDS: Portfolio Hub Market Pulse Performance

XLF

The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for XLF (The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.2% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -82.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.9%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 5.7%. The strategy executed 88 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.

XLF Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric1Y5Y10YFull History
StrategyB&HStrategyB&HStrategyB&HStrategyB&H
CAGR1.85%10.23%4.93%11.53%10.56%13.67%5.87%5.66%
Sharpe Ratio0.150.660.360.590.700.580.430.20
Max Drawdown-12.26%-14.79%-20.73%-25.81%-20.73%-42.86%-28.18%-82.69%
% Time Invested100.0%100.0%90.9%100.0%93.7%100.0%87.3%100.0%
Trades / Year2.00.03.80.03.40.03.40.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of XLF under the Excess Return MMA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 5.9% CAGR with a -28.2% Max Drawdown across 88 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 5.7% CAGR and -82.7% Max Drawdown).

Return Distribution Analysis

Histogram of monthly return distribution for XLF under Excess Return MMA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness.
Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile. Monthly return distribution for XLF under Excess Return MMA (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry DateExit DateTypeAllocationEntry PriceExit PriceNet Return %Exit Reason
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2026-04-07 2026-04-13 Completed 33.33% $49.45 $50.32 1.72% Signal
2026-03-13 2026-04-07 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.23% Interest Income
2026-01-15 2026-03-18 Completed 33.33% $53.75 $48.95 -8.99% Signal
2025-04-30 2026-03-13 Completed 33.33% $47.25 $48.69 2.99% Stop
2025-12-22 2026-01-15 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.23% Interest Income
2025-07-11 2025-12-22 Completed 33.33% $51.56 $54.28 5.22% Signal
2025-05-02 2025-07-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.81% Interest Income
2025-04-30 2025-05-02 Completed 33.33% $47.25 $48.57 2.73% Signal
2025-04-08 2025-05-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.27% Interest Income
2025-04-07 2025-04-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.27% Interest Income
2025-04-07 2025-04-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.27% Interest Income
2024-01-29 2025-04-08 Completed 33.33% $37.09 $44.95 21.11% Stop
2024-01-02 2025-04-07 Completed 33.33% $36.10 $42.04 16.40% Stop
2023-12-13 2025-04-07 Completed 33.33% $35.08 $42.04 19.78% Stop
2022-12-01 2024-01-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.06 6.01% Interest Income
2023-11-08 2024-01-02 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.76% Interest Income
2023-06-22 2023-12-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 2.62% Interest Income
2023-08-07 2023-11-08 Completed 33.33% $33.50 $32.21 -3.92% Signal
2023-04-19 2023-08-07 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.57% Interest Income
2023-04-10 2023-06-22 Completed 33.33% $30.26 $31.55 4.21% Signal
2023-04-05 2023-04-19 Completed 33.33% $30.07 $31.63 5.13% Signal
2023-03-16 2023-04-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.30% Interest Income
2023-03-14 2023-04-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.30% Interest Income
2023-03-06 2023-03-16 Completed 33.33% $34.02 $29.48 -13.40% Stop
2022-12-06 2023-03-14 Completed 33.33% $32.86 $31.02 -5.63% Stop
2022-06-07 2023-03-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 2.63% Interest Income
2022-11-11 2022-12-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.27% Interest Income
2022-11-07 2022-12-01 Completed 33.33% $32.07 $34.26 6.77% Signal
2022-11-01 2022-11-11 Completed 33.33% $32.16 $33.57 4.33% Signal
2022-10-14 2022-11-07 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.26% Interest Income
2022-04-05 2022-11-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.28% Interest Income
2022-05-24 2022-10-14 Completed 33.33% $31.39 $29.87 -4.88% Stop
2022-05-25 2022-06-07 Completed 33.33% $31.44 $32.26 2.58% Signal
2022-05-03 2022-05-25 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.06% Interest Income
2022-05-02 2022-05-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.06% Interest Income
2022-03-30 2022-05-03 Completed 33.33% $36.69 $32.29 -12.04% Stop
2021-02-10 2022-05-02 Completed 33.33% $28.61 $32.21 12.53% Stop
2022-03-30 2022-04-05 Completed 33.33% $36.69 $35.21 -4.10% Signal
2022-03-08 2022-03-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2022-03-08 2022-03-30 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2020-11-17 2022-03-08 Completed 33.33% $24.71 $33.33 34.82% Stop
2020-07-21 2022-03-08 Completed 33.33% $21.59 $33.33 54.32% Stop
2020-10-09 2021-02-10 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2020-05-11 2020-11-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.06% Interest Income
2020-03-24 2020-10-09 Completed 33.33% $16.72 $22.92 36.98% Signal
2020-03-31 2020-07-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.04% Interest Income
2020-03-24 2020-05-11 Completed 33.33% $16.72 $19.65 17.42% Signal
2020-03-24 2020-03-31 Completed 33.33% $16.72 $18.96 13.31% Signal
2020-03-02 2020-03-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2020-03-02 2020-03-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2020-03-02 2020-03-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2019-12-27 2020-03-02 Completed 33.33% $27.39 $23.61 -13.83% Stop
2019-01-15 2020-03-02 Completed 33.33% $21.34 $23.61 10.60% Stop
2019-01-15 2020-03-02 Completed 33.33% $21.34 $23.61 10.60% Stop
2019-05-29 2019-12-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.10% Interest Income
2019-01-18 2019-05-29 Completed 33.33% $22.35 $22.99 2.80% Signal
2018-12-26 2019-01-18 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.15% Interest Income
2018-10-29 2019-01-15 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.49% Interest Income
2018-09-10 2019-01-15 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.80% Interest Income
2018-11-20 2018-12-26 Completed 33.33% $22.85 $19.43 -15.00% Stop
2018-10-29 2018-11-20 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.15% Interest Income
2018-09-13 2018-10-29 Completed 33.33% $24.18 $22.07 -8.78% Stop
2017-01-04 2018-10-29 Completed 33.33% $19.78 $22.07 11.52% Stop
2018-05-22 2018-09-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.63% Interest Income
2016-08-05 2018-09-10 Completed 33.33% $16.08 $24.40 51.68% Signal
2017-07-12 2018-05-22 Completed 33.33% $20.96 $24.10 14.95% Signal
2017-06-09 2017-07-12 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.09% Interest Income
2016-05-13 2017-06-09 Completed 33.33% $15.52 $20.19 30.07% Signal
2016-06-09 2017-01-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.20% Interest Income
2015-12-15 2016-08-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.17% Interest Income
2016-02-12 2016-06-09 Completed 33.33% $13.46 $15.77 17.10% Signal
2016-01-21 2016-05-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.09% Interest Income
2016-01-21 2016-02-12 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2015-12-29 2016-01-21 Completed 33.33% $16.17 $14.05 -13.19% Stop
2015-09-17 2016-01-21 Completed 33.33% $15.56 $14.05 -9.76% Stop
2015-09-24 2015-12-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.03% Interest Income
2015-09-17 2015-12-15 Completed 33.33% $15.56 $15.77 1.34% Signal
2015-09-17 2015-09-24 Completed 33.33% $15.56 $14.87 -4.47% Signal
2015-08-25 2015-09-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-08-25 2015-09-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2015-08-25 2015-09-17 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2012-11-01 2015-08-25 Completed 33.33% $10.04 $15.51 54.41% Stop
2012-09-12 2015-08-25 Completed 33.33% $9.90 $15.51 56.63% Stop
2012-06-13 2015-08-25 Completed 33.33% $8.76 $15.51 76.91% Stop
2011-12-21 2012-11-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.07% Interest Income
2012-07-10 2012-09-12 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2012-06-13 2012-07-10 Completed 33.33% $8.76 $9.14 4.30% Signal
2012-05-21 2012-06-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-05-21 2012-06-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2012-03-29 2012-05-21 Completed 33.33% $9.84 $8.64 -12.23% Stop
2012-01-09 2012-05-21 Completed 33.33% $8.38 $8.64 3.10% Stop
2011-08-08 2012-03-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2011-06-03 2012-01-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2011-12-19 2011-12-21 Completed 33.33% $7.83 $7.92 1.14% Signal
2011-11-25 2011-12-19 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-10-27 2011-11-25 Completed 33.33% $8.60 $7.27 -15.45% Stop
2011-10-05 2011-10-27 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-08-25 2011-10-05 Completed 33.33% $8.12 $7.24 -10.79% Stop
2011-08-03 2011-08-25 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-06-29 2011-08-08 Completed 33.33% $9.32 $8.01 -14.13% Stop
2010-06-15 2011-08-03 Completed 33.33% $8.84 $8.86 0.19% Stop
2011-06-07 2011-06-29 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.00% Interest Income
2011-01-21 2011-06-07 Completed 33.33% $10.08 $9.24 -8.32% Stop
2010-11-11 2011-06-03 Completed 33.33% $9.28 $9.31 0.31% Signal
2010-10-06 2011-01-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.04% Interest Income
2010-07-23 2010-11-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.05% Interest Income
2010-06-01 2010-10-06 Completed 33.33% $8.83 $9.01 2.04% Signal
2010-06-01 2010-07-23 Completed 33.33% $8.83 $8.79 -0.53% Signal
2010-05-21 2010-06-15 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-05-07 2010-06-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-05-07 2010-06-01 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-02-19 2010-05-21 Completed 33.33% $8.67 $8.48 -2.21% Stop
2010-03-09 2010-05-07 Completed 33.33% $9.20 $9.28 0.84% Stop
2010-03-03 2010-05-07 Completed 33.33% $8.97 $9.28 3.43% Stop
2010-02-08 2010-03-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2010-02-08 2010-03-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.01% Interest Income
2009-10-29 2010-02-19 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2009-08-14 2010-02-08 Completed 33.33% $8.63 $8.47 -1.83% Stop
2009-05-18 2010-02-08 Completed 33.33% $7.11 $8.47 19.15% Stop
2009-10-13 2009-10-29 Completed 33.33% $9.22 $8.70 -5.68% Stop
2008-01-09 2009-10-13 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.47% Interest Income
2007-08-02 2009-08-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 3.08% Interest Income
2007-08-02 2009-05-18 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.03 3.03% Interest Income
2007-12-03 2008-01-09 Completed 33.33% $17.40 $15.15 -13.01% Stop
2007-11-08 2007-12-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.20% Interest Income
2007-09-11 2007-11-08 Completed 33.33% $18.53 $17.21 -7.14% Stop
2007-08-17 2007-09-11 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.25% Interest Income
2003-11-24 2007-08-17 Completed 33.33% $13.79 $19.82 43.64% Stop
2007-06-18 2007-08-02 Completed 33.33% $21.04 $18.85 -10.45% Stop
2005-11-03 2007-08-02 Completed 33.33% $16.59 $18.85 13.55% Stop
2007-04-30 2007-06-18 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.64% Interest Income
2006-09-22 2007-04-30 Completed 33.33% $18.81 $20.78 10.41% Signal
2006-07-25 2006-09-22 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.82% Interest Income
2005-11-22 2006-07-25 Completed 33.33% $17.16 $17.90 4.28% Signal
2005-10-31 2005-11-22 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.25% Interest Income
2005-07-22 2005-11-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 1.03% Interest Income
2005-07-22 2005-10-31 Completed 33.33% $16.07 $16.31 1.44% Signal
2005-04-19 2005-07-22 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.78% Interest Income
2004-11-04 2005-07-22 Completed 33.33% $15.27 $16.07 5.21% Signal
2004-10-06 2005-04-19 Completed 33.33% $15.13 $15.02 -0.79% Signal
2004-10-12 2004-11-04 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.12% Interest Income
2003-06-05 2004-10-12 Completed 33.33% $12.79 $15.06 17.67% Signal
2004-06-14 2004-10-06 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.47% Interest Income
2003-05-21 2004-06-14 Completed 33.33% $11.85 $14.88 25.51% Signal
2003-04-01 2003-11-24 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.65% Interest Income
2003-04-01 2003-06-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.20% Interest Income
2003-03-27 2003-05-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.17% Interest Income
2003-03-21 2003-04-01 Completed 33.33% $11.16 $10.65 -4.61% Stop
2003-03-21 2003-04-01 Completed 33.33% $11.16 $10.65 -4.61% Stop
2003-03-05 2003-03-27 Completed 33.33% $10.37 $10.78 3.84% Signal
2002-08-28 2003-03-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.75% Interest Income
2002-03-12 2003-03-21 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.56% Interest Income
2003-02-10 2003-03-05 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.08% Interest Income
2002-12-31 2003-02-10 Completed 33.33% $11.24 $10.51 -6.55% Stop
2002-07-05 2002-12-31 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.74% Interest Income
2002-08-02 2002-08-28 Completed 33.33% $11.16 $11.84 6.01% Signal
2002-07-11 2002-08-02 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.11% Interest Income
2002-05-14 2002-07-11 Completed 33.33% $13.45 $11.54 -14.29% Stop
2002-01-16 2002-07-05 Completed 33.33% $13.14 $12.18 -7.36% Stop
2001-06-25 2002-05-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.02 1.97% Interest Income
2001-10-09 2002-03-12 Completed 33.33% $11.87 $13.44 13.17% Signal
2001-09-10 2002-01-16 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.66% Interest Income
2001-09-17 2001-10-09 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.15% Interest Income
2001-04-16 2001-09-17 Completed 33.33% $13.20 $10.98 -16.87% Stop
2001-07-03 2001-09-10 Completed 33.33% $14.16 $12.12 -14.43% Stop
2001-04-05 2001-07-03 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.01 0.89% Interest Income
2001-03-19 2001-06-25 Completed 33.33% $12.75 $14.23 11.53% Signal
2001-03-22 2001-04-16 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.26% Interest Income
2001-03-19 2001-04-05 Completed 33.33% $12.75 $12.71 -0.44% Signal
2001-01-08 2001-03-22 Completed 33.33% $14.11 $11.97 -15.25% Stop
2001-02-23 2001-03-19 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.29% Interest Income
2001-02-23 2001-03-19 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.29% Interest Income
2000-12-14 2001-02-23 Completed 33.33% $13.67 $13.28 -2.90% Stop
2000-12-14 2001-02-23 Completed 33.33% $13.67 $13.28 -2.90% Stop
2000-12-12 2001-01-08 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.36% Interest Income
2000-12-12 2000-12-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income
2000-12-12 2000-12-14 Interest (CASH) 33.33% $1.00 $1.00 0.02% Interest Income