BIL
SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-bill ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-15
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-bill ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -0.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -0.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 1.3%. The strategy executed 10 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
BIL Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.81% | 3.82% | 3.64% | 3.50% | 2.35% | 2.22% | 1.39% | 1.27% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 20.14 | 18.71 | 16.30 | 13.30 | 12.06 | 8.63 | 8.12 | 4.60 |
| Max Drawdown | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.04% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.21% | -0.12% | -0.44% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 73.3% | 100.0% | 58.5% | 100.0% | 40.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-07-07 | 2026-04-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $88.08 | $90.77 | 3.00% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-07-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-07 | 2025-06-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.86 | $87.74 | 4.57% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-07 | 2024-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-03-03 | 2024-05-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $78.64 | $83.48 | 6.09% | Signal | |
| 2021-11-01 | 2023-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-12-29 | 2023-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.90% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-20 | 2023-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-08 | 2021-11-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.86 | $77.04 | 1.51% | Signal | |
| 2019-05-08 | 2020-12-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.86 | $77.11 | 1.60% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-10 | 2020-08-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.09 | $77.11 | -0.02% | Signal | |
| 2020-01-22 | 2020-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-05-08 | 2020-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.86 | $76.87 | 1.28% | Signal | |
| 2010-06-25 | 2019-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-08-18 | 2019-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-12 | 2019-05-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-22 | 2010-06-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.67 | $73.68 | -0.04% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-22 | 2009-08-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.67 | $73.69 | -0.03% | Signal | |
| 2009-06-02 | 2009-06-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.65 | $73.65 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 2009-05-20 | 2009-06-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-20 | 2009-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-20 | 2009-05-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |