DIA

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY

2026-09-11

Executive Summary

The quantitative backtest for DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -51.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.1%. The strategy executed 65 total trades.

* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.

📊 Strategy Model 4 Models Available

Compare quantitative moving average overlays for DIA:

Excess Return MMA Active Model

Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.

Excess Return MMA CA

Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.

Excess Return SMA

Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.

Moving Average (50/200)

Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.

🎯 Trading Horizon

Select risk profile & execution style for DIA:

🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active Horizon

Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.

⚔️ Tactical Trading

Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.

🛡️ DIA Drawdown Shield & Downside Protection

Why Drawdown Dictates Longevity →

Peak Drawdown Defense

-18.5% (vs -51.9% B&H)

+33.4% shallower drawdown

Downside Efficiency

0.87 Sortino

+0.34 vs 0.53 B&H

Capital Sheltered from Risk

24.1% of Time

Earning Treasury yield during downturns

* Drawdown Shield demonstrates how systematic trend-following bounded historical drawdowns and protected principal capital compared to passive Buy & Hold.

📊 DIA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary

Metric	1Y		5Y		10Y		Full
	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H	Strategy	B&H
Max Drawdown	-9.76%	-9.76%	-13.17%	-20.76%	-14.71%	-36.70%	-18.50%	-51.87%
Sharpe Ratio	1.04	1.16	0.66	0.67	0.94	0.71	0.71	0.43
Sortino Ratio	1.63	1.84	0.89	0.95	1.17	0.82	0.87	0.53
CAGR	13.26%	15.58%	7.47%	10.43%	12.27%	13.27%	8.33%	8.13%
% Time Invested	94.0%	100.0%	76.9%	100.0%	83.4%	100.0%	75.9%	100.0%
Trades / Year	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	2.4	0.0

Cumulative Growth Performance

Hydrating Performance Trajectory... Loading historical performance data

Figure 1: Cumulative Trajectory Analysis. Logarithmic growth comparison of DIA under the Excess Return MMA strategy (Investing) versus Buy & Hold. The strategy produced a 8.3% CAGR with a -18.5% Max Drawdown across 65 trade signals (compared to Buy & Hold's 8.1% CAGR and -51.9% Max Drawdown).

Histogram of monthly return distribution for DIA under Excess Return MMA strategy in Investing context, illustrating downside risk mitigation and return skewness. — **Figure 2: Monthly Return Distribution Profile.** Monthly return distribution for **DIA** under **Excess Return MMA** (Investing). Visualizes return frequency, volatility clustering, and tail-risk truncation relative to standard buy-and-hold returns.

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Top Diversifiers for DIA

Explore Correlation Across Horizons →

Top 5 non-correlated asset sleeves evaluated on 1Y daily percentage returns (Pearson r). Compare them side-by-side in Compare Studio to analyze portfolio diversification.

Diversifier Asset	Category	1Y Correlation (r)	Action
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Trade History

This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.

Entry Date	Exit Date	Type	Allocation	Entry Price	Exit Price	Net Return %	Exit Reason
🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Subscribe to Unlock
2026-05-05	2026-06-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.44%	Interest Income
2025-05-01	2026-05-05	Completed	33.33%	$400.54	$489.74	22.21%	Signal
2025-06-23	2025-10-02	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.19%	Interest Income
2025-04-30	2025-06-23	Completed	33.33%	$394.54	$415.22	5.19%	Signal
2025-04-08	2025-05-01	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.27%	Interest Income
2025-03-21	2025-05-01	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.47%	Interest Income
2025-04-07	2025-04-30	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.27%	Interest Income
2023-11-08	2025-04-08	Completed	33.33%	$326.98	$385.58	17.86%	Stop
2023-03-14	2025-04-07	Completed	33.33%	$303.98	$363.92	19.66%	Stop
2024-07-24	2025-03-21	Completed	33.33%	$389.20	$407.69	4.70%	Signal
2024-07-01	2024-07-24	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.34%	Interest Income
2023-12-18	2024-07-01	Completed	33.33%	$358.32	$379.67	5.91%	Signal
2023-10-31	2023-12-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.70%	Interest Income
2023-10-04	2023-11-08	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.54%	Interest Income
2023-06-23	2023-10-31	Completed	33.33%	$320.47	$314.63	-1.87%	Signal
2023-07-19	2023-10-04	Completed	33.33%	$333.10	$315.36	-5.37%	Stop
2022-11-04	2023-07-19	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	3.36%	Interest Income
2023-04-20	2023-06-23	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.91%	Interest Income
2022-12-16	2023-04-20	Completed	33.33%	$309.88	$319.18	2.95%	Signal
2022-05-12	2023-03-14	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.82%	Interest Income
2022-03-16	2022-12-16	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.85%	Interest Income
2022-06-15	2022-11-04	Completed	33.33%	$284.85	$303.24	6.40%	Signal
2022-05-23	2022-06-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.08%	Interest Income
2020-03-24	2022-05-23	Completed	33.33%	$175.43	$293.14	67.02%	Stop
2020-08-11	2022-05-12	Completed	33.33%	$252.63	$293.63	16.17%	Stop
2020-07-01	2022-03-16	Completed	33.33%	$232.63	$313.76	34.81%	Signal
2020-05-12	2020-08-11	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.03%	Interest Income
2020-04-01	2020-07-01	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.04%	Interest Income
2020-03-24	2020-05-12	Completed	33.33%	$175.43	$218.04	24.23%	Signal
2020-03-24	2020-04-01	Completed	33.33%	$175.43	$188.28	7.27%	Signal
2020-03-02	2020-03-24	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2020-03-02	2020-03-24	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2020-03-02	2020-03-24	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2019-06-14	2020-03-02	Completed	33.33%	$228.88	$228.76	-0.10%	Stop
2019-03-28	2020-03-02	Completed	33.33%	$224.40	$228.76	1.89%	Stop
2019-01-18	2020-03-02	Completed	33.33%	$213.52	$228.76	7.09%	Stop
2019-03-21	2019-06-14	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.56%	Interest Income
2018-12-20	2019-03-28	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.63%	Interest Income
2019-01-15	2019-03-21	Completed	33.33%	$207.54	$223.93	7.84%	Signal
2018-12-26	2019-01-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.15%	Interest Income
2018-12-20	2019-01-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.15%	Interest Income
2015-09-17	2018-12-26	Completed	33.33%	$134.76	$190.38	41.20%	Stop
2018-07-26	2018-12-20	Completed	33.33%	$218.91	$201.48	-8.01%	Stop
2016-03-18	2018-12-20	Completed	33.33%	$143.13	$201.48	40.70%	Stop
2018-05-09	2018-07-26	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.41%	Interest Income
2016-04-26	2018-05-09	Completed	33.33%	$146.97	$208.89	42.06%	Signal
2016-03-02	2016-04-26	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.04%	Interest Income
2015-10-06	2016-03-18	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.09%	Interest Income
2016-02-12	2016-03-02	Completed	33.33%	$128.40	$136.91	6.58%	Signal
2016-01-21	2016-02-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2015-10-13	2016-01-21	Completed	33.33%	$137.31	$128.11	-6.74%	Stop
2015-08-13	2015-10-13	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2015-09-17	2015-10-06	Completed	33.33%	$134.76	$135.29	0.34%	Signal
2015-08-25	2015-09-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2015-08-25	2015-09-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2012-02-23	2015-08-25	Completed	33.33%	$95.85	$131.47	37.09%	Stop
2011-09-01	2015-08-25	Completed	33.33%	$85.17	$131.47	54.28%	Stop
2013-02-13	2015-08-13	Completed	33.33%	$106.60	$139.60	30.89%	Signal
2013-01-22	2013-02-13	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2012-08-30	2013-01-22	Completed	33.33%	$98.11	$103.48	5.43%	Signal
2012-07-05	2012-08-30	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2011-12-14	2012-07-05	Completed	33.33%	$87.88	$96.37	9.61%	Signal
2011-11-03	2012-02-23	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2011-08-09	2011-12-14	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2011-08-31	2011-11-03	Completed	33.33%	$85.22	$87.78	2.95%	Signal
2011-08-10	2011-09-01	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2011-08-09	2011-08-31	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.00%	Interest Income
2009-07-22	2011-08-10	Completed	33.33%	$61.61	$80.56	30.69%	Stop
2010-10-04	2011-08-09	Completed	33.33%	$77.42	$80.15	3.48%	Stop
2010-07-27	2011-08-09	Completed	33.33%	$75.27	$80.15	6.42%	Stop
2010-07-02	2010-10-04	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.04%	Interest Income
2010-07-02	2010-07-27	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.01%	Interest Income
2009-07-22	2010-07-02	Completed	33.33%	$61.61	$69.36	12.52%	Stop
2009-06-03	2010-07-02	Completed	33.33%	$60.12	$69.36	15.32%	Stop
2008-09-09	2009-07-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.24%	Interest Income
2008-02-25	2009-07-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	1.13%	Interest Income
2008-07-18	2009-06-03	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.46%	Interest Income
2008-08-07	2008-09-09	Completed	33.33%	$77.57	$77.52	-0.12%	Signal
2008-07-16	2008-08-07	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.10%	Interest Income
2008-06-10	2008-07-18	Completed	33.33%	$81.81	$76.98	-5.96%	Signal
2008-02-14	2008-07-16	Completed	33.33%	$83.44	$73.60	-11.84%	Stop
2007-12-31	2008-06-10	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.82%	Interest Income
2008-02-12	2008-02-25	Completed	33.33%	$81.76	$82.28	0.59%	Signal
2008-01-23	2008-02-14	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.14%	Interest Income
2008-01-18	2008-02-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.14%	Interest Income
2003-03-21	2008-01-23	Completed	33.33%	$50.21	$77.83	54.92%	Stop
2005-10-03	2008-01-18	Completed	33.33%	$66.75	$81.21	21.59%	Stop
2007-11-15	2007-12-31	Completed	33.33%	$87.17	$88.27	1.22%	Signal
2007-10-19	2007-11-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.28%	Interest Income
2006-09-06	2007-10-19	Completed	33.33%	$73.59	$90.96	23.54%	Signal
2006-07-26	2006-09-06	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.57%	Interest Income
2005-12-20	2006-07-26	Completed	33.33%	$68.75	$71.20	3.50%	Signal
2005-10-27	2005-12-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.57%	Interest Income
2005-06-20	2005-10-27	Completed	33.33%	$66.36	$65.31	-1.63%	Signal
2005-08-26	2005-10-03	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.34%	Interest Income
2004-12-17	2005-08-26	Completed	33.33%	$66.14	$65.78	-0.59%	Signal
2005-05-05	2005-06-20	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.36%	Interest Income
2004-11-17	2005-05-05	Completed	33.33%	$65.37	$64.91	-0.76%	Signal
2004-10-05	2004-12-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.41%	Interest Income
2004-05-26	2004-11-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.75%	Interest Income
2003-03-21	2004-10-05	Completed	33.33%	$50.21	$63.14	25.70%	Signal
2003-05-29	2004-05-26	Completed	33.33%	$53.01	$61.97	16.84%	Signal
2003-03-25	2003-05-29	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.20%	Interest Income
2003-03-11	2003-03-25	Completed	33.33%	$45.44	$49.28	8.40%	Signal
2002-08-29	2003-03-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.74%	Interest Income
2000-12-05	2003-03-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.06	5.80%	Interest Income
2003-02-14	2003-03-11	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.07%	Interest Income
2002-12-31	2003-02-14	Completed	33.33%	$49.64	$46.58	-6.20%	Stop
2002-06-17	2002-12-31	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.83%	Interest Income
2002-07-22	2002-08-29	Completed	33.33%	$46.85	$50.94	8.69%	Signal
2002-06-27	2002-07-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.11%	Interest Income
2002-04-25	2002-06-27	Completed	33.33%	$58.74	$54.30	-7.60%	Stop
2002-01-09	2002-06-17	Completed	33.33%	$59.60	$56.20	-5.76%	Stop
2000-10-13	2002-04-25	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.05	5.32%	Interest Income
2001-09-10	2002-01-09	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.01	0.63%	Interest Income
2001-06-22	2001-09-10	Completed	33.33%	$61.96	$55.26	-10.86%	Signal
2000-11-20	2001-06-22	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.03	2.71%	Interest Income
2000-03-21	2000-12-05	Completed	33.33%	$60.66	$61.46	1.26%	Signal
2000-09-29	2000-11-20	Completed	33.33%	$61.84	$60.78	-1.76%	Signal
2000-07-17	2000-10-13	Completed	33.33%	$61.57	$57.33	-6.92%	Stop
2000-09-07	2000-09-29	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.38%	Interest Income
2000-07-17	2000-09-07	Completed	33.33%	$61.57	$64.53	4.76%	Signal
2000-03-30	2000-07-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	1.70%	Interest Income
2000-02-22	2000-07-17	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.02	2.32%	Interest Income
2000-03-15	2000-03-30	Completed	33.33%	$56.06	$62.55	11.52%	Signal
2000-02-28	2000-03-21	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.36%	Interest Income
2000-02-22	2000-03-15	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.36%	Interest Income
2000-01-12	2000-02-28	Completed	33.33%	$65.53	$56.38	-14.00%	Stop
2000-01-12	2000-02-22	Completed	33.33%	$65.53	$58.48	-10.81%	Stop
2000-01-12	2000-02-22	Completed	33.33%	$65.53	$58.48	-10.81%	Stop
2000-01-10	2000-01-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2000-01-10	2000-01-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income
2000-01-10	2000-01-12	Interest (CASH)	33.33%	$1.00	$1.00	0.02%	Interest Income

Next Steps: Portfolio Integration & Comparative Analysis

Single-ticker trend following is designed to truncate tail risk inside a broader portfolio. View where DIA ranks across 40+ tracked assets, evaluate correlation against non-correlated diversifiers, or model it inside a custom all-weather asset mix.

📊 View Full 40-Asset Backtest Matrix → 🛠️ Build Custom Portfolio with DIA → ⚖️ Compare DIA vs Non-Correlated Assets →

DIA