DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -18.5% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -51.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.4%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.2%. The strategy executed 65 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
DIA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 15.96% | 19.31% | 7.52% | 10.48% | 12.26% | 13.26% | 8.38% | 8.18% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.31 | 1.44 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.95 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.76% | -9.76% | -13.17% | -20.76% | -14.71% | -36.70% | -18.50% | -51.87% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 95.2% | 100.0% | 96.5% | 100.0% | 89.8% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-05-01 | 2026-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $400.87 | $490.14 | 22.21% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-10-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $394.87 | $415.56 | 5.19% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-21 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-08 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $327.25 | $385.90 | 17.86% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-14 | 2025-04-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $304.23 | $364.22 | 19.66% | Stop | |
| 2024-07-24 | 2025-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $389.53 | $408.03 | 4.70% | Signal | |
| 2024-07-01 | 2024-07-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-18 | 2024-07-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $358.61 | $379.99 | 5.91% | Signal | |
| 2023-10-31 | 2023-12-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.70% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-04 | 2023-11-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-06-23 | 2023-10-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $320.74 | $314.89 | -1.87% | Signal | |
| 2023-07-19 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $333.37 | $315.63 | -5.37% | Stop | |
| 2022-11-04 | 2023-07-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-20 | 2023-06-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.91% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-16 | 2023-04-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $310.14 | $319.45 | 2.95% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-12 | 2023-03-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-03-16 | 2022-12-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-06-15 | 2022-11-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $285.08 | $303.49 | 6.40% | Signal | |
| 2022-05-23 | 2022-06-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2022-05-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $175.57 | $293.38 | 67.02% | Stop | |
| 2020-08-11 | 2022-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $252.83 | $293.87 | 16.17% | Stop | |
| 2020-07-01 | 2022-03-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $232.82 | $314.02 | 34.81% | Signal | |
| 2020-05-12 | 2020-08-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2020-07-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-05-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $175.57 | $218.22 | 24.23% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $175.57 | $188.44 | 7.27% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-06-14 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $229.07 | $228.95 | -0.10% | Stop | |
| 2019-03-28 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $224.59 | $228.95 | 1.89% | Stop | |
| 2019-01-18 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $213.69 | $228.95 | 7.09% | Stop | |
| 2019-03-21 | 2019-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-20 | 2019-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-15 | 2019-03-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $207.71 | $224.12 | 7.84% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-26 | 2019-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-20 | 2019-01-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2018-12-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.87 | $190.54 | 41.20% | Stop | |
| 2018-07-26 | 2018-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $219.09 | $201.65 | -8.01% | Stop | |
| 2016-03-18 | 2018-12-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $143.25 | $201.65 | 40.70% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-09 | 2018-07-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-04-26 | 2018-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $147.09 | $209.06 | 42.06% | Signal | |
| 2016-03-02 | 2016-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-06 | 2016-03-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-12 | 2016-03-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $128.50 | $137.03 | 6.58% | Signal | |
| 2016-01-21 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $137.42 | $128.22 | -6.74% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-13 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-09-17 | 2015-10-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $134.87 | $135.40 | 0.34% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-09-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-02-23 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $95.93 | $131.58 | 37.09% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.24 | $131.58 | 54.28% | Stop | |
| 2013-02-13 | 2015-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $106.69 | $139.71 | 30.89% | Signal | |
| 2013-01-22 | 2013-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2012-08-30 | 2013-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $98.19 | $103.57 | 5.43% | Signal | |
| 2012-07-05 | 2012-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-14 | 2012-07-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.95 | $96.45 | 9.61% | Signal | |
| 2011-11-03 | 2012-02-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-12-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-31 | 2011-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $85.29 | $87.85 | 2.95% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-10 | 2011-09-01 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-22 | 2011-08-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.66 | $80.63 | 30.69% | Stop | |
| 2010-10-04 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.48 | $80.22 | 3.48% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-27 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $75.34 | $80.22 | 6.42% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-02 | 2010-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-07-02 | 2010-07-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-07-22 | 2010-07-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.66 | $69.42 | 12.52% | Stop | |
| 2009-06-03 | 2010-07-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.17 | $69.42 | 15.32% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-09 | 2009-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-25 | 2009-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-07-18 | 2009-06-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-08-07 | 2008-09-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $77.64 | $77.58 | -0.12% | Signal | |
| 2008-07-16 | 2008-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-06-10 | 2008-07-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.88 | $77.04 | -5.96% | Signal | |
| 2008-02-14 | 2008-07-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $83.51 | $73.66 | -11.84% | Stop | |
| 2007-12-31 | 2008-06-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-02-12 | 2008-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $81.83 | $82.35 | 0.59% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-23 | 2008-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-01-18 | 2008-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-21 | 2008-01-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.25 | $77.89 | 54.92% | Stop | |
| 2005-10-03 | 2008-01-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.81 | $81.27 | 21.59% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-15 | 2007-12-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $87.24 | $88.35 | 1.22% | Signal | |
| 2007-10-19 | 2007-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-09-06 | 2007-10-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $73.65 | $91.04 | 23.54% | Signal | |
| 2006-07-26 | 2006-09-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-12-20 | 2006-07-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $68.81 | $71.26 | 3.50% | Signal | |
| 2005-10-27 | 2005-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-06-20 | 2005-10-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.42 | $65.37 | -1.63% | Signal | |
| 2005-08-26 | 2005-10-03 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-12-17 | 2005-08-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $66.20 | $65.84 | -0.59% | Signal | |
| 2005-05-05 | 2005-06-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-11-17 | 2005-05-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.43 | $64.96 | -0.76% | Signal | |
| 2004-10-05 | 2004-12-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-05-26 | 2004-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-21 | 2004-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $50.25 | $63.20 | 25.70% | Signal | |
| 2003-05-29 | 2004-05-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $53.06 | $62.02 | 16.84% | Signal | |
| 2003-03-25 | 2003-05-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-11 | 2003-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.48 | $49.32 | 8.40% | Signal | |
| 2002-08-29 | 2003-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-12-05 | 2003-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 5.80% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-02-14 | 2003-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-31 | 2003-02-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $49.68 | $46.62 | -6.20% | Stop | |
| 2002-06-17 | 2002-12-31 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.83% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-07-22 | 2002-08-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $46.88 | $50.98 | 8.69% | Signal | |
| 2002-06-27 | 2002-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-04-25 | 2002-06-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $58.78 | $54.35 | -7.60% | Stop | |
| 2002-01-09 | 2002-06-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $59.65 | $56.24 | -5.76% | Stop | |
| 2000-10-13 | 2002-04-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-09-10 | 2002-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-06-22 | 2001-09-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $62.01 | $55.31 | -10.86% | Signal | |
| 2000-11-20 | 2001-06-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-03-21 | 2000-12-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $60.71 | $61.51 | 1.26% | Signal | |
| 2000-09-29 | 2000-11-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.89 | $60.83 | -1.76% | Signal | |
| 2000-07-17 | 2000-10-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.62 | $57.38 | -6.92% | Stop | |
| 2000-09-07 | 2000-09-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-07-17 | 2000-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $61.62 | $64.58 | 4.76% | Signal | |
| 2000-03-30 | 2000-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.70% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-02-22 | 2000-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-03-15 | 2000-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $56.11 | $62.60 | 11.52% | Signal | |
| 2000-02-28 | 2000-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-02-22 | 2000-03-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-01-12 | 2000-02-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.58 | $56.43 | -14.00% | Stop | |
| 2000-01-12 | 2000-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.58 | $58.53 | -10.81% | Stop | |
| 2000-01-12 | 2000-02-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $65.58 | $58.53 | -10.81% | Stop | |
| 2000-01-10 | 2000-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-01-10 | 2000-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-01-10 | 2000-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |