DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-28
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for DIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -36.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -51.9%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 8.2%. The strategy executed 20 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
DIA Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 19.31% | 19.31% | 8.67% | 10.48% | 11.56% | 13.26% | 6.97% | 8.18% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.76% | -9.76% | -15.43% | -20.76% | -16.55% | -36.70% | -36.74% | -51.87% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 83.6% | 100.0% | 85.4% | 100.0% | 76.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-13 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $327.19 | $385.90 | 17.88% | Stop | |
| 2022-03-14 | 2022-12-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-31 | 2022-03-14 | Completed | 100% | $237.41 | $307.14 | 29.31% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-26 | 2020-07-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $175.57 | $191.82 | 9.20% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-15 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $225.16 | $228.95 | 1.63% | Stop | |
| 2018-12-21 | 2019-03-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.54% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-18 | 2018-12-21 | Completed | 100% | $143.25 | $199.08 | 38.91% | Stop | |
| 2016-01-22 | 2016-03-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-10-13 | 2016-01-22 | Completed | 100% | $137.42 | $130.74 | -4.91% | Signal | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-12-22 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $89.74 | $131.58 | 46.54% | Stop | |
| 2011-09-02 | 2011-12-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2011-08-31 | 2011-09-02 | Completed | 100% | $85.29 | $82.78 | -2.99% | Signal | |
| 2011-08-09 | 2011-08-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2010-09-21 | 2011-08-09 | Completed | 100% | $77.04 | $80.22 | 4.08% | Stop | |
| 2010-07-13 | 2010-09-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-06-29 | 2010-07-13 | Completed | 100% | $58.62 | $73.47 | 25.26% | Signal | |
| 2008-01-10 | 2009-06-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-11-23 | 2008-01-10 | Completed | 100% | $68.77 | $83.96 | 22.03% | Signal | |
| 2005-11-01 | 2005-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-06-28 | 2005-11-01 | Completed | 100% | $64.85 | $65.95 | 1.66% | Signal | |
| 2005-06-03 | 2005-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-12-01 | 2005-06-03 | Completed | 100% | $65.02 | $66.09 | 1.59% | Signal | |
| 2004-08-19 | 2004-12-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-21 | 2004-08-19 | Completed | 100% | $50.25 | $62.14 | 23.59% | Signal | |
| 2002-06-27 | 2003-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-03-07 | 2002-06-27 | Completed | 100% | $62.45 | $54.35 | -13.02% | Stop | |
| 2001-08-17 | 2002-03-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-06-07 | 2001-08-17 | Completed | 100% | $63.98 | $59.94 | -6.35% | Signal | |
| 2001-03-19 | 2001-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-02-07 | 2001-03-19 | Completed | 100% | $63.08 | $57.16 | -9.44% | Signal | |
| 2000-11-21 | 2001-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-07-17 | 2000-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $61.62 | $60.34 | -2.12% | Signal | |
| 2000-06-15 | 2000-07-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-05-23 | 2000-06-15 | Completed | 100% | $60.28 | $61.16 | 1.40% | Signal | |
| 2000-02-25 | 2000-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.40% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-01-12 | 2000-02-25 | Completed | 100% | $65.58 | $57.23 | -12.78% | Stop | |
| 2000-01-10 | 2000-01-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |