FBND Fidelity Total Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FBND (Fidelity Total Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -10.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.3%. The strategy executed 21 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
FBND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 5.73% | 5.76% | 1.95% | 0.91% | 2.00% | 2.63% | 2.07% | 2.31% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.66 | 1.45 | 0.62 | 0.15 | 0.51 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.37 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.05% | -2.66% | -4.34% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.5% | 100.0% | 78.8% | 100.0% | 81.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending (2026-05-30) | — | Pending Buy | 33.33% | — | — | —% | Pending Next-Day Open |
| 2025-06-27 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $43.68 | $45.52 | 4.21% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2024-08-05 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $42.91 | $45.52 | 6.07% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-05-04 | Open | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-29 | 2026-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.21 | $45.55 | 5.42% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-25 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2024-12-23 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.37% | Interest Income |
| 2024-04-11 | 2025-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.26 | $42.95 | 6.68% | Signal |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.91 | $42.07 | -1.97% | Signal |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2024-05-10 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.29% | Interest Income |
| 2023-10-04 | 2024-08-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.46% | Interest Income |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.60 | $40.62 | 0.05% | Signal |
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-04-11 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.14% | Interest Income |
| 2023-06-02 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.15% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.91 | $37.98 | -4.83% | Stop |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.91 | $39.07 | -2.09% | Signal |
| 2023-05-22 | 2023-06-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2023-02-09 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.73 | $39.44 | -0.74% | Signal |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2023-04-04 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-02-09 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.55% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-04 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.52% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-10-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-23 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2022-03-02 | 2022-09-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.26 | $41.40 | 2.83% | Stop |
| 2022-02-25 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2022-01-04 | 2022-03-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-09-08 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.28 | $42.32 | -4.42% | Signal |
| 2021-12-09 | 2022-01-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.02 | $43.96 | -0.15% | Signal |
| 2021-09-02 | 2021-09-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-08-03 | 2021-09-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.02% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-28 | 2021-08-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income |
| 2021-05-04 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.17% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-05-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.26 | $43.44 | 7.89% | Signal |
| 2021-04-05 | 2021-05-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.01% | Interest Income |
| 2021-03-25 | 2021-04-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.09% | Interest Income |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.26 | $43.08 | 7.00% | Signal |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income |
| 2019-07-23 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.37 | $39.06 | -0.78% | Stop |
| 2019-03-27 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.20 | $39.06 | 2.26% | Stop |
| 2019-02-13 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.50 | $39.06 | 4.19% | Stop |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-07-23 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income |
| 2019-03-04 | 2019-03-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-03-01 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.61% | Interest Income |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-02-13 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018-12-03 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.16% | Interest Income |
| 2018-10-24 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2018-05-31 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.91% | Interest Income |
| 2018-03-08 | 2018-11-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.49% | Interest Income |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.81 | $36.30 | -1.38% | Signal |
| 2018-01-24 | 2018-08-22 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.37% | Interest Income |
| 2016-10-04 | 2018-05-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.55 | $36.50 | -0.14% | Signal |
| 2017-06-27 | 2018-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.67 | $36.33 | -0.91% | Signal |
| 2017-04-11 | 2018-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.25 | $36.80 | 1.50% | Signal |
| 2017-05-02 | 2017-06-27 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-05-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income |
| 2017-04-04 | 2017-04-11 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income |
| 2017-03-27 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2016-12-16 | 2017-04-03 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.51% | Interest Income |
| 2016-10-04 | 2017-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.55 | $36.13 | -1.15% | Signal |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.55 | $35.22 | -3.64% | Signal |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | -0.03% | Interest Income |