FBND
Fidelity Total Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FBND (Fidelity Total Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -10.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.2%. The strategy executed 22 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
FBND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 4.36% | 3.50% | 1.57% | 0.41% | 1.79% | 2.28% | 1.82% | 2.18% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.30 | 0.91 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.06% | -2.66% | -4.38% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 76.5% | 100.0% | 80.3% | 100.0% | 82.0% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2025-04-29 | 2026-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.05 | $45.39 | 5.37% | Signal | |
| 2025-03-25 | 2025-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-23 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.44% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-11 | 2025-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.11 | $42.79 | 6.63% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.76 | $41.92 | -2.01% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-10 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-10-04 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.45 | $40.47 | -0.00% | Signal | |
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-22 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.76 | $37.84 | -4.88% | Stop | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.76 | $38.93 | -2.14% | Signal | |
| 2023-02-09 | 2023-05-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.58 | $39.29 | -0.79% | Signal | |
| 2022-03-23 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-02-25 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-09 | 2023-02-09 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.57% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2022-03-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.12 | $41.25 | 2.78% | Stop | |
| 2021-09-08 | 2022-02-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.11 | $42.16 | -4.47% | Signal | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.86 | $43.79 | -0.20% | Signal | |
| 2021-05-28 | 2021-09-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-03-25 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-05-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.12 | $43.28 | 7.84% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-03-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.12 | $42.92 | 6.94% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-07-23 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.23 | $38.92 | -0.83% | Stop | |
| 2019-03-27 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.06 | $38.92 | 2.21% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-13 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.36 | $38.92 | 4.13% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-31 | 2019-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-03-08 | 2019-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.26% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-10-24 | 2019-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.71% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.67 | $36.17 | -1.43% | Signal | |
| 2018-01-24 | 2018-08-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2018-05-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.42 | $36.37 | -0.19% | Signal | |
| 2017-06-27 | 2018-03-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.53 | $36.20 | -0.96% | Signal | |
| 2017-04-11 | 2018-01-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.12 | $36.66 | 1.45% | Signal | |
| 2017-03-27 | 2017-06-27 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-12-16 | 2017-04-11 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2017-03-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.42 | $36.00 | -1.20% | Signal | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2016-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.42 | $35.09 | -3.69% | Signal | |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |