FBND
Fidelity Total Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FBND (Fidelity Total Bond ETF) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -16.1% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.7%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.2%. The strategy executed 7 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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FBND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.50% | 3.50% | 1.91% | 0.41% | 0.72% | 2.28% | 0.74% | 2.18% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.66% | -2.66% | -4.47% | -17.25% | -16.11% | -17.25% | -16.11% | -17.25% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 73.1% | 100.0% | 71.5% | 100.0% | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-09-07 | 2024-01-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.72% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-31 | 2023-09-07 | Completed | 100% | $39.64 | $38.93 | -1.85% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-20 | 2023-01-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2022-01-20 | Completed | 100% | $43.86 | $43.07 | -1.85% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-24 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2021-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $41.54 | $42.87 | 3.15% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-01-09 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 100% | $36.81 | $36.02 | -2.19% | Stop | |
| 2018-11-09 | 2019-01-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-22 | 2018-11-09 | Completed | 100% | $36.67 | $36.12 | -1.56% | Signal | |
| 2018-02-22 | 2018-08-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.94% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-19 | 2018-02-22 | Completed | 100% | $36.41 | $36.01 | -1.17% | Signal | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-04-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.18% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2017-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $36.42 | $35.70 | -2.02% | Signal | |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |