FBND
Fidelity Total Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FBND (Fidelity Total Bond ETF) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -19.0% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of -0.3%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.2%. The strategy executed 4 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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FBND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 3.50% | 3.50% | -0.36% | 0.41% | -0.25% | 2.28% | -0.26% | 2.18% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.91 | 0.91 | -0.09 | 0.07 | -0.05 | 0.37 | -0.05 | 0.35 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.66% | -2.66% | -11.37% | -17.25% | -19.00% | -17.25% | -19.00% | -17.25% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 64.2% | 100.0% | 68.8% | 100.0% | 70.1% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2023-10-04 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.52% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-10-04 | Completed | 100% | $39.76 | $37.84 | -4.88% | Stop | |
| 2022-04-25 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-13 | 2022-04-25 | Completed | 100% | $41.54 | $40.15 | -3.40% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-07-29 | 2020-03-19 | Completed | 100% | $39.29 | $36.02 | -8.36% | Stop | |
| 2018-06-29 | 2019-07-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.46% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-10-04 | 2018-06-29 | Completed | 100% | $36.42 | $36.38 | -0.14% | Signal | |
| 2016-09-30 | 2016-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |