FBND
Fidelity Total Bond ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for FBND (Fidelity Total Bond ETF) using the Excess Return MMA* strategy in a Trading context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -10.4% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -17.2%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.6%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 2.3%. The strategy executed 76 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
* Excess Return MMA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA Active
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Available in Investing Mode
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
Available in Investing Mode
FBND Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 2.98% | 3.50% | 2.26% | 0.41% | 2.43% | 2.28% | 2.65% | 2.30% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.10 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 0.07 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| Max Drawdown | -2.07% | -2.66% | -3.61% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% | -10.36% | -17.25% |
| % Time Invested | 88.9% | 100.0% | 71.4% | 100.0% | 80.0% | 100.0% | 78.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 8.0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-24 | 2026-05-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.35 | $44.93 | -0.96% | Signal | |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.35% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026-03-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.64 | $44.96 | -1.54% | Signal | |
| 2026-02-19 | 2026-03-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.64 | $45.04 | -1.36% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-29 | 2026-03-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.05 | $45.21 | 4.96% | Signal | |
| 2026-01-27 | 2026-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-04 | 2026-02-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-27 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.07 | $45.18 | 0.21% | Signal | |
| 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $45.06 | $44.95 | -0.29% | Signal | |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-12-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-25 | 2025-12-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.43 | $45.10 | 3.80% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-11-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.00 | $44.92 | 2.05% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-01 | 2025-08-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-06-20 | 2025-08-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.12 | $43.87 | 1.68% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-23 | 2025-06-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-28 | 2025-06-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.59 | $42.65 | 0.11% | Signal | |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-05-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.44% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-24 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-02-26 | 2025-04-23 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.88 | $42.81 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2025-02-07 | 2025-04-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.35 | $42.49 | 0.27% | Signal | |
| 2024-10-24 | 2025-02-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.44% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-12-10 | 2024-12-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.65 | $42.00 | -1.57% | Signal | |
| 2024-08-05 | 2024-12-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $42.76 | $41.76 | -2.38% | Signal | |
| 2024-10-11 | 2024-12-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.74% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-06-07 | 2024-10-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.76 | $42.19 | 3.46% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2024-10-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.58 | $42.44 | 4.53% | Signal | |
| 2024-05-10 | 2024-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-02-21 | 2024-06-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-04-08 | 2024-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.63% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-01-19 | 2024-05-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.45 | $40.47 | -0.00% | Signal | |
| 2024-03-25 | 2024-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.76 | $40.36 | -1.04% | Signal | |
| 2024-01-29 | 2024-03-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.82% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-11-30 | 2024-02-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.53 | $40.40 | 2.16% | Signal | |
| 2023-11-15 | 2024-01-29 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.79 | $40.67 | 4.79% | Signal | |
| 2023-05-19 | 2024-01-19 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.62% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-25 | 2023-11-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.81% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-09 | 2023-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.85% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-10 | 2023-05-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.76 | $39.12 | -1.67% | Signal | |
| 2023-02-10 | 2023-05-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.34 | $39.29 | -0.16% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-28 | 2023-05-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.22 | $39.62 | 0.96% | Signal | |
| 2023-03-07 | 2023-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.43% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-02-24 | 2023-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-03-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.82 | $38.75 | -0.23% | Signal | |
| 2023-02-07 | 2023-02-24 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.47 | $38.72 | -1.95% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-09 | 2023-02-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-13 | 2023-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-17 | 2023-01-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $38.19 | $39.50 | 3.36% | Signal | |
| 2022-09-15 | 2022-12-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.84% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-09-02 | 2022-11-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.77% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-08-04 | 2022-09-15 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.25 | $38.72 | -3.86% | Signal | |
| 2022-07-22 | 2022-09-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.85 | $39.01 | -2.17% | Signal | |
| 2022-01-12 | 2022-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-01-10 | 2022-07-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-08 | 2022-01-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.89 | $43.34 | -1.30% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-30 | 2022-01-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.83 | $43.17 | -1.56% | Signal | |
| 2021-12-07 | 2021-12-30 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-07-13 | 2021-12-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.86 | $43.79 | -0.20% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-08 | 2021-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-15 | 2021-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.76 | $43.90 | 0.28% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-05 | 2021-11-15 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-05-05 | 2021-10-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.24 | $43.71 | 1.04% | Signal | |
| 2021-09-22 | 2021-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $44.25 | $43.81 | -1.06% | Signal | |
| 2021-08-30 | 2021-09-22 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-04-16 | 2021-08-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.15 | $44.12 | 2.21% | Signal | |
| 2021-03-26 | 2021-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-02-08 | 2021-05-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-01-21 | 2021-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-06 | 2021-03-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.12 | $42.82 | 6.68% | Signal | |
| 2020-11-18 | 2021-02-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.67 | $43.78 | 0.21% | Signal | |
| 2020-12-07 | 2021-01-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.71 | $43.72 | -0.03% | Signal | |
| 2020-11-12 | 2020-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-02 | 2020-11-18 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-11-05 | 2020-11-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $43.64 | $43.51 | -0.34% | Signal | |
| 2020-09-04 | 2020-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-04-16 | 2020-10-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.70 | $43.42 | 4.08% | Signal | |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-09-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $41.60 | $43.58 | 4.71% | Signal | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-16 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-14 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-04-06 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-12-20 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.20 | $38.92 | -3.23% | Stop | |
| 2019-12-05 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $40.11 | $38.92 | -3.03% | Stop | |
| 2019-02-13 | 2020-03-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $37.36 | $38.92 | 4.13% | Stop | |
| 2019-10-17 | 2019-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-11-05 | 2019-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-10-17 | 2019-11-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $39.95 | $39.99 | 0.04% | Signal | |
| 2019-09-25 | 2019-10-17 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-12-20 | 2019-10-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.76 | $39.95 | 8.63% | Signal | |
| 2018-12-07 | 2019-09-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.40 | $40.06 | 10.00% | Signal | |
| 2018-10-22 | 2019-02-13 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.73% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-25 | 2018-12-20 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-09-19 | 2018-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.50% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-08-23 | 2018-10-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.69 | $36.11 | -1.64% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-28 | 2018-09-25 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.40 | $36.32 | -0.26% | Signal | |
| 2018-09-05 | 2018-09-19 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.57 | $36.37 | -0.58% | Signal | |
| 2018-08-13 | 2018-09-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-01-22 | 2018-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-08 | 2018-08-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.26 | $36.51 | 0.65% | Signal | |
| 2018-05-08 | 2018-06-28 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-30 | 2018-06-08 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-04-23 | 2018-05-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.05 | $36.07 | 0.00% | Signal | |
| 2018-04-02 | 2018-04-30 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.35 | $36.09 | -0.79% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-18 | 2018-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.53% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-22 | 2018-04-02 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.41% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-12 | 2018-01-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.14 | $36.60 | 1.21% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-22 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.88 | $36.68 | -0.59% | Signal | |
| 2017-12-07 | 2017-12-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.88 | $36.85 | -0.11% | Signal | |
| 2017-11-09 | 2017-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-10-26 | 2017-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.14% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-11-07 | 2017-11-09 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.87 | $36.78 | -0.29% | Signal | |
| 2017-10-05 | 2017-11-07 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-08-24 | 2017-10-26 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.65 | $36.63 | -0.11% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-04 | 2017-10-05 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.55 | $36.77 | 0.55% | Signal | |
| 2017-08-02 | 2017-08-24 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-07-12 | 2017-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-01-25 | 2017-08-02 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.59 | $36.57 | 2.70% | Signal | |
| 2017-06-12 | 2017-07-12 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.40 | $36.40 | -0.06% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-18 | 2017-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-04-10 | 2017-05-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.09 | $36.48 | 1.03% | Signal | |
| 2016-12-16 | 2017-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.19% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-03-17 | 2017-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-01-05 | 2017-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $35.70 | $35.63 | -0.25% | Signal | |
| 2016-11-10 | 2017-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-11-03 | 2017-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-29 | 2016-12-16 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.78 | $35.09 | 3.82% | Signal | |
| 2016-02-29 | 2016-11-10 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.78 | $35.76 | 5.80% | Signal | |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016-11-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $36.38 | $36.22 | -0.51% | Signal | |
| 2016-10-03 | 2016-10-25 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-02-12 | 2016-10-03 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.53 | $36.36 | 8.38% | Signal | |
| 2015-12-07 | 2016-02-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-21 | 2016-02-29 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-20 | 2016-02-12 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.05% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-11-10 | 2015-12-07 | Completed | 33.33% | $33.78 | $33.94 | 0.42% | Signal | |
| 2015-10-26 | 2015-11-20 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.25 | $34.03 | -0.70% | Signal | |
| 2015-06-01 | 2015-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-28 | 2015-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-08-26 | 2015-08-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.02 | $34.21 | 0.49% | Signal | |
| 2015-07-31 | 2015-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-07-23 | 2015-07-31 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.18 | $34.25 | 0.15% | Signal | |
| 2015-05-13 | 2015-07-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-07-21 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.83 | $34.12 | -2.09% | Signal | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-06-01 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.83 | $34.74 | -0.31% | Signal | |
| 2015-04-23 | 2015-05-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $34.83 | $34.69 | -0.46% | Signal | |
| 2015-04-21 | 2015-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-21 | 2015-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-04-21 | 2015-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |