IBM
International Business Machines Corp
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IBM (International Business Machines Corp) using the Excess Return SMA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -45.9% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.1%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 7.7%. The strategy executed 64 total trades.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
* Excess Return SMA: Advanced Single Moving Average model utilizing custom duration weighting and dynamic Stop Loss limits.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA Active
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
Switch to MMA to enable
IBM Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -30.14% | -15.69% | 6.83% | 13.81% | 4.12% | 7.66% | 6.12% | 7.70% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.87 | -0.34 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | -45.92% | -37.50% | -45.92% | -37.50% | -45.92% | -40.59% | -45.92% | -69.40% |
| % Time Invested | 77.8% | 100.0% | 89.2% | 100.0% | 69.7% | 100.0% | 57.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-10 | 2026-05-14 | Completed | 100% | $251.41 | $215.55 | -14.31% | Stop | |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-26 | 2026-02-13 | Completed | 100% | $236.60 | $258.10 | 9.03% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $233.86 | $244.79 | 4.62% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $159.94 | $225.26 | 40.77% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-04-03 | 2024-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $117.29 | $156.96 | 33.76% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-10 | 2023-04-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-21 | 2023-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $112.25 | $112.95 | 0.57% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-29 | 2022-10-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-11-16 | 2022-09-29 | Completed | 100% | $100.24 | $106.53 | 6.23% | Stop | |
| 2021-10-25 | 2021-11-16 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-05-27 | 2021-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $113.07 | $101.41 | -10.35% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-05 | 2021-05-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-08-03 | 2020-10-05 | Completed | 100% | $92.19 | $92.14 | -0.10% | Signal | |
| 2020-07-10 | 2020-08-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-03-24 | 2020-07-10 | Completed | 100% | $73.65 | $86.22 | 17.00% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-01-10 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $99.87 | $96.31 | -3.61% | Stop | |
| 2019-05-14 | 2020-01-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.25% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-20 | 2019-05-14 | Completed | 100% | $98.90 | $93.87 | -5.13% | Stop | |
| 2018-06-26 | 2019-03-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.65% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-12 | 2018-06-26 | Completed | 100% | $99.96 | $94.70 | -5.31% | Stop | |
| 2018-03-09 | 2018-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2018-03-09 | Completed | 100% | $99.13 | $105.83 | 6.71% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-08 | 2017-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2017-05-08 | Completed | 100% | $92.31 | $99.63 | 7.88% | Stop | |
| 2014-01-23 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-09-23 | 2014-01-23 | Completed | 100% | $110.30 | $105.86 | -4.08% | Signal | |
| 2013-08-29 | 2013-09-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-09-21 | 2013-08-29 | Completed | 100% | $65.44 | $105.60 | 61.29% | Stop | |
| 2009-03-13 | 2009-09-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-12-09 | 2009-03-13 | Completed | 100% | $44.63 | $48.40 | 8.38% | Signal | |
| 2008-11-14 | 2008-12-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-10-22 | 2008-11-14 | Completed | 100% | $46.07 | $44.00 | -4.54% | Stop | |
| 2008-09-30 | 2008-10-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.04% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-05 | 2008-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $56.43 | $61.34 | 8.64% | Stop | |
| 2007-11-12 | 2007-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-10-23 | 2007-11-12 | Completed | 100% | $46.32 | $53.32 | 15.05% | Stop | |
| 2005-04-08 | 2006-10-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.06 | 6.48% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-08-02 | 2005-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $43.65 | $44.62 | 2.18% | Signal | |
| 2004-07-09 | 2004-08-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-11-18 | 2004-07-09 | Completed | 100% | $45.02 | $42.41 | -5.84% | Stop | |
| 2002-11-12 | 2003-11-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-11-05 | 2002-11-12 | Completed | 100% | $40.54 | $38.51 | -5.07% | Stop | |
| 2002-05-02 | 2002-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-04-26 | 2002-05-02 | Completed | 100% | $42.82 | $41.36 | -3.45% | Signal | |
| 2002-04-04 | 2002-04-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-09 | 2002-04-04 | Completed | 100% | $48.52 | $49.37 | 1.69% | Stop | |
| 2000-12-18 | 2001-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.16% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-10-24 | 2000-12-18 | Completed | 100% | $45.59 | $43.38 | -4.90% | Stop | |
| 2000-10-02 | 2000-10-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-07-28 | 2000-10-02 | Completed | 100% | $54.41 | $55.21 | 1.41% | Stop | |
| 2000-07-06 | 2000-07-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-05-10 | 2000-07-06 | Completed | 100% | $51.66 | $51.41 | -0.52% | Stop | |
| 2000-04-17 | 2000-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-03-23 | 2000-04-17 | Completed | 100% | $56.67 | $50.80 | -10.40% | Stop | |
| 2000-03-01 | 2000-03-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.36% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-10-26 | 2000-03-01 | Completed | 100% | $46.29 | $49.88 | 7.71% | Stop | |
| 1999-10-04 | 1999-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-03-03 | 1999-10-04 | Completed | 100% | $41.02 | $57.57 | 40.28% | Stop | |
| 1999-02-08 | 1999-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-09-24 | 1999-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $31.94 | $40.65 | 27.23% | Stop | |
| 1998-09-01 | 1998-09-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-07-15 | 1998-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $28.90 | $27.43 | -5.13% | Stop | |
| 1998-06-22 | 1998-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-02-20 | 1998-06-22 | Completed | 100% | $24.91 | $25.75 | 3.30% | Stop | |
| 1998-01-28 | 1998-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-11-19 | 1998-01-28 | Completed | 100% | $24.62 | $23.45 | -4.83% | Stop | |
| 1997-10-28 | 1997-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-03-06 | 1997-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $17.47 | $21.44 | 22.69% | Stop | |
| 1997-02-11 | 1997-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-08-05 | 1997-02-11 | Completed | 100% | $12.85 | $17.20 | 33.79% | Stop | |
| 1996-07-12 | 1996-08-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-04-18 | 1996-07-12 | Completed | 100% | $12.52 | $11.38 | -9.21% | Stop | |
| 1996-03-26 | 1996-04-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-01-29 | 1996-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $12.39 | $12.85 | 3.63% | Stop | |
| 1996-01-05 | 1996-01-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1995-10-04 | 1996-01-05 | Completed | 100% | $11.12 | $10.18 | -8.57% | Stop | |
| 1995-09-12 | 1995-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-08-17 | 1995-09-12 | Completed | 100% | $7.57 | $11.34 | 49.84% | Stop | |
| 1993-04-15 | 1994-08-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 4.67% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-02-02 | 1993-04-15 | Completed | 100% | $5.83 | $5.52 | -5.27% | Stop | |
| 1992-09-30 | 1993-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.05% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-04-20 | 1992-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $9.44 | $8.80 | -6.80% | Stop | |
| 1991-11-26 | 1992-04-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.57% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-09-12 | 1991-11-26 | Completed | 100% | $10.64 | $10.07 | -5.48% | Signal | |
| 1991-08-20 | 1991-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-04-12 | 1991-08-20 | Completed | 100% | $11.27 | $10.01 | -11.24% | Stop | |
| 1991-03-20 | 1991-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-02-07 | 1991-03-20 | Completed | 100% | $13.20 | $11.68 | -11.58% | Stop | |
| 1988-02-12 | 1991-02-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.25 | 25.06% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-01-18 | 1988-02-12 | Completed | 100% | $10.54 | $9.96 | -5.51% | Signal | |
| 1987-09-04 | 1988-01-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.79% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-08-13 | 1987-09-04 | Completed | 100% | $14.99 | $14.25 | -4.96% | Stop | |
| 1987-05-20 | 1987-08-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.78% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-05-06 | 1987-05-20 | Completed | 100% | $14.46 | $13.65 | -5.64% | Stop | |
| 1987-02-11 | 1987-05-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.75% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-11-03 | 1987-02-11 | Completed | 100% | $10.57 | $11.56 | 9.34% | Signal | |
| 1986-10-10 | 1986-11-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1986-08-07 | 1986-10-10 | Completed | 100% | $11.10 | $10.43 | -6.09% | Stop | |
| 1986-07-16 | 1986-08-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-06-04 | 1986-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $10.59 | $11.48 | 8.41% | Stop | |
| 1985-03-26 | 1985-06-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-01-29 | 1985-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $10.83 | $10.10 | -6.82% | Stop | |
| 1984-11-19 | 1985-01-29 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.45% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-02-22 | 1984-11-19 | Completed | 100% | $8.56 | $9.79 | 14.34% | Signal | |
| 1984-01-30 | 1984-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1982-10-08 | 1984-01-30 | Completed | 100% | $5.98 | $8.94 | 49.32% | Stop | |
| 1980-02-28 | 1982-10-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.22 | 21.83% | Interest Income | |
| 1979-10-04 | 1980-02-28 | Completed | 100% | $4.30 | $4.02 | -6.60% | Signal | |
| 1979-09-12 | 1979-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1978-04-24 | 1979-09-12 | Completed | 100% | $3.75 | $4.19 | 11.85% | Stop | |
| 1977-11-01 | 1978-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.62% | Interest Income | |
| 1976-01-22 | 1977-11-01 | Completed | 100% | $3.37 | $3.72 | 10.12% | Signal | |
| 1973-11-02 | 1976-01-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.18 | 18.24% | Interest Income | |
| 1973-10-10 | 1973-11-02 | Completed | 100% | $3.46 | $3.60 | 3.92% | Signal | |
| 1973-09-18 | 1973-10-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1973-06-14 | 1973-09-18 | Completed | 100% | $4.19 | $3.34 | -20.30% | Stop | |
| 1973-05-22 | 1973-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1972-11-10 | 1973-05-22 | Completed | 100% | $3.77 | $3.97 | 5.21% | Stop | |
| 1972-10-18 | 1972-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1972-03-13 | 1972-10-18 | Completed | 100% | $3.79 | $3.78 | -0.23% | Stop | |
| 1972-03-09 | 1972-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |