IBM
International Business Machines Corp
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-26
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for IBM (International Business Machines Corp) using the Moving Average (50/200)* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -60.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -69.4%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 7.7%. The strategy executed 80 total trades.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
* Moving Average (50/200): Classic Moving Average Crossover (e.g., 50-day crossing 200-day). The foundational basis of research-grade trend following.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200) Active
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
🎯 Investment Objective
🛡️ Long-Term Investing Active
Ideal for wealth preservation and multi-year horizons. Optimized for low turnover and tax efficiency.
⚔️ Tactical Trading
Ideal for active capital rotation and momentum-first accounts. Optimized for high sensitivity to price shifts.
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IBM Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Full History | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | -30.25% | -15.69% | 1.67% | 13.81% | -2.00% | 7.66% | 5.18% | 7.70% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.95 | -0.34 | 0.06 | 0.42 | -0.10 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Max Drawdown | -46.01% | -37.50% | -46.01% | -37.50% | -51.69% | -40.59% | -60.59% | -69.40% |
| % Time Invested | 54.0% | 100.0% | 77.4% | 100.0% | 65.8% | 100.0% | 61.6% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 60 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Pro to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-04-22 | 2026-04-24 | Completed | 100% | $252.65 | $230.24 | -8.92% | Stop | |
| 2026-03-16 | 2026-04-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 2026-03-10 | 2026-03-16 | Completed | 100% | $251.41 | $246.06 | -2.18% | Signal | |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-03-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-08-26 | 2026-02-13 | Completed | 100% | $236.60 | $258.10 | 9.03% | Stop | |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-08-04 | Completed | 100% | $233.86 | $244.79 | 4.62% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.27% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-05-20 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 100% | $159.94 | $225.26 | 40.77% | Stop | |
| 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-05-23 | 2024-04-26 | Completed | 100% | $115.51 | $156.96 | 35.83% | Stop | |
| 2023-03-10 | 2023-05-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.00% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-11-21 | 2023-03-10 | Completed | 100% | $130.54 | $112.95 | -13.52% | Stop | |
| 2022-09-28 | 2022-11-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2021-12-31 | 2022-09-28 | Completed | 100% | $112.95 | $106.36 | -5.88% | Signal | |
| 2021-10-25 | 2021-12-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-12-07 | 2021-10-25 | Completed | 100% | $97.05 | $101.41 | 4.45% | Stop | |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020-10-22 | Completed | 100% | $95.72 | $86.97 | -9.19% | Signal | |
| 2020-07-29 | 2020-10-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-07-21 | 2020-07-29 | Completed | 100% | $97.91 | $92.98 | -5.08% | Stop | |
| 2020-03-02 | 2020-07-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2020-02-05 | 2020-03-02 | Completed | 100% | $109.50 | $96.31 | -12.09% | Stop | |
| 2019-12-10 | 2020-02-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2019-03-20 | 2019-12-10 | Completed | 100% | $98.90 | $97.63 | -1.33% | Signal | |
| 2018-06-26 | 2019-03-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.65% | Interest Income | |
| 2018-06-12 | 2018-06-26 | Completed | 100% | $99.96 | $94.70 | -5.31% | Stop | |
| 2018-05-03 | 2018-06-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-12-05 | 2018-05-03 | Completed | 100% | $104.12 | $95.52 | -8.30% | Stop | |
| 2017-06-02 | 2017-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2017-05-31 | 2017-06-02 | Completed | 100% | $99.13 | $99.81 | 0.63% | Signal | |
| 2017-05-08 | 2017-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2016-03-22 | 2017-05-08 | Completed | 100% | $92.31 | $99.63 | 7.88% | Stop | |
| 2015-08-25 | 2016-03-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.10% | Interest Income | |
| 2015-06-01 | 2015-08-25 | Completed | 100% | $103.21 | $89.84 | -13.00% | Stop | |
| 2014-10-22 | 2015-06-01 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2014-04-08 | 2014-10-22 | Completed | 100% | $113.75 | $96.40 | -15.29% | Stop | |
| 2013-08-06 | 2014-04-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2013-02-14 | 2013-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $114.80 | $111.02 | -3.34% | Signal | |
| 2012-12-06 | 2013-02-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.01% | Interest Income | |
| 2009-05-12 | 2012-12-06 | Completed | 100% | $55.42 | $108.28 | 95.26% | Signal | |
| 2008-09-30 | 2009-05-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2008-03-28 | 2008-09-30 | Completed | 100% | $60.87 | $61.34 | 0.72% | Stop | |
| 2008-01-08 | 2008-03-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.44% | Interest Income | |
| 2007-12-05 | 2008-01-08 | Completed | 100% | $56.43 | $52.36 | -7.26% | Signal | |
| 2007-11-12 | 2007-12-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.20% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-10-11 | 2007-11-12 | Completed | 100% | $43.29 | $53.32 | 23.12% | Stop | |
| 2006-06-05 | 2006-10-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.76% | Interest Income | |
| 2006-05-10 | 2006-06-05 | Completed | 100% | $42.48 | $40.53 | -4.63% | Signal | |
| 2006-03-24 | 2006-05-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.59% | Interest Income | |
| 2005-11-23 | 2006-03-24 | Completed | 100% | $44.88 | $42.37 | -5.63% | Signal | |
| 2005-04-15 | 2005-11-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.06% | Interest Income | |
| 2004-10-07 | 2005-04-15 | Completed | 100% | $44.33 | $39.93 | -9.97% | Stop | |
| 2004-05-20 | 2004-10-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.55% | Interest Income | |
| 2003-03-11 | 2004-05-20 | Completed | 100% | $37.75 | $43.75 | 15.84% | Signal | |
| 2003-02-14 | 2003-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.07% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-12-23 | 2003-02-14 | Completed | 100% | $39.62 | $38.03 | -4.06% | Stop | |
| 2002-11-12 | 2002-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.13% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-11-05 | 2002-11-12 | Completed | 100% | $40.54 | $38.51 | -5.07% | Stop | |
| 2002-03-18 | 2002-11-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.09% | Interest Income | |
| 2002-02-22 | 2002-03-18 | Completed | 100% | $47.60 | $52.89 | 11.07% | Signal | |
| 2002-01-30 | 2002-02-22 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.11% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-10-09 | 2002-01-30 | Completed | 100% | $48.52 | $51.42 | 5.92% | Stop | |
| 2001-08-31 | 2001-10-09 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.22% | Interest Income | |
| 2001-05-30 | 2001-08-31 | Completed | 100% | $56.08 | $49.75 | -11.33% | Stop | |
| 2000-11-10 | 2001-05-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 2.61% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-10-24 | 2000-11-10 | Completed | 100% | $45.59 | $48.10 | 5.46% | Signal | |
| 2000-10-02 | 2000-10-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.39% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-07-03 | 2000-10-02 | Completed | 100% | $53.25 | $55.21 | 3.63% | Stop | |
| 2000-06-05 | 2000-07-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.45% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-05-31 | 2000-06-05 | Completed | 100% | $54.11 | $53.10 | -1.92% | Signal | |
| 2000-04-03 | 2000-05-31 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.92% | Interest Income | |
| 2000-03-27 | 2000-04-03 | Completed | 100% | $61.13 | $58.69 | -4.05% | Stop | |
| 1999-11-22 | 2000-03-27 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.87% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-10-26 | 1999-11-22 | Completed | 100% | $46.29 | $51.54 | 11.29% | Signal | |
| 1999-10-04 | 1999-10-26 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.31% | Interest Income | |
| 1999-03-03 | 1999-10-04 | Completed | 100% | $41.02 | $57.57 | 40.28% | Stop | |
| 1999-02-08 | 1999-03-03 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-09-24 | 1999-02-08 | Completed | 100% | $31.94 | $40.65 | 27.23% | Stop | |
| 1998-09-01 | 1998-09-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.30% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-07-15 | 1998-09-01 | Completed | 100% | $28.90 | $27.43 | -5.13% | Stop | |
| 1998-06-22 | 1998-07-15 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-04-23 | 1998-06-22 | Completed | 100% | $27.70 | $25.75 | -7.08% | Stop | |
| 1998-03-31 | 1998-04-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1998-02-20 | 1998-03-31 | Completed | 100% | $24.91 | $25.16 | 0.92% | Signal | |
| 1998-01-28 | 1998-02-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-11-19 | 1998-01-28 | Completed | 100% | $24.62 | $23.45 | -4.83% | Stop | |
| 1997-10-28 | 1997-11-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1997-03-06 | 1997-10-28 | Completed | 100% | $17.47 | $21.44 | 22.69% | Stop | |
| 1997-02-11 | 1997-03-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-09-10 | 1997-02-11 | Completed | 100% | $14.04 | $17.20 | 22.45% | Stop | |
| 1996-07-12 | 1996-09-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.83% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-04-18 | 1996-07-12 | Completed | 100% | $12.52 | $11.38 | -9.21% | Stop | |
| 1996-03-26 | 1996-04-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 1996-01-25 | 1996-03-26 | Completed | 100% | $12.73 | $12.85 | 0.87% | Stop | |
| 1995-12-28 | 1996-01-25 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.38% | Interest Income | |
| 1995-10-04 | 1995-12-28 | Completed | 100% | $11.12 | $10.78 | -3.12% | Signal | |
| 1995-09-12 | 1995-10-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.34% | Interest Income | |
| 1994-08-04 | 1995-09-12 | Completed | 100% | $7.35 | $11.34 | 54.30% | Stop | |
| 1994-07-13 | 1994-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.28% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-12-07 | 1994-07-13 | Completed | 100% | $6.23 | $6.51 | 4.33% | Stop | |
| 1993-04-15 | 1993-12-07 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 2.00% | Interest Income | |
| 1993-02-02 | 1993-04-15 | Completed | 100% | $5.83 | $5.52 | -5.27% | Stop | |
| 1992-09-17 | 1993-02-02 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.16% | Interest Income | |
| 1992-04-20 | 1992-09-17 | Completed | 100% | $9.44 | $9.12 | -3.47% | Stop | |
| 1991-05-21 | 1992-04-20 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 4.41% | Interest Income | |
| 1991-04-12 | 1991-05-21 | Completed | 100% | $11.27 | $10.65 | -5.59% | Signal | |
| 1991-03-20 | 1991-04-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.37% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-12-06 | 1991-03-20 | Completed | 100% | $11.65 | $11.68 | 0.15% | Stop | |
| 1990-10-01 | 1990-12-06 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.33% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-08-28 | 1990-10-01 | Completed | 100% | $10.33 | $10.65 | 3.08% | Signal | |
| 1990-08-06 | 1990-08-28 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.47% | Interest Income | |
| 1990-04-10 | 1990-08-06 | Completed | 100% | $10.23 | $10.33 | 0.88% | Stop | |
| 1989-10-16 | 1990-04-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.04 | 3.77% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-09-12 | 1989-10-16 | Completed | 100% | $11.02 | $9.35 | -15.22% | Stop | |
| 1989-04-17 | 1989-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.13% | Interest Income | |
| 1989-04-13 | 1989-04-17 | Completed | 100% | $10.28 | $10.28 | -0.05% | Signal | |
| 1989-03-21 | 1989-04-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1988-07-13 | 1989-03-21 | Completed | 100% | $11.34 | $10.25 | -9.66% | Stop | |
| 1987-10-29 | 1988-07-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.44% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-10-23 | 1987-10-29 | Completed | 100% | $10.41 | $10.43 | 0.16% | Signal | |
| 1987-10-01 | 1987-10-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1987-03-13 | 1987-10-01 | Completed | 100% | $12.55 | $13.29 | 5.86% | Stop | |
| 1986-07-16 | 1987-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.05 | 5.12% | Interest Income | |
| 1985-09-12 | 1986-07-16 | Completed | 100% | $10.52 | $11.48 | 9.07% | Stop | |
| 1985-08-20 | 1985-09-12 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-08-30 | 1985-08-20 | Completed | 100% | $9.96 | $10.47 | 5.08% | Signal | |
| 1984-04-06 | 1984-08-30 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.03 | 3.07% | Interest Income | |
| 1984-03-21 | 1984-04-06 | Completed | 100% | $9.01 | $8.57 | -4.94% | Stop | |
| 1984-01-30 | 1984-03-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.08% | Interest Income | |
| 1982-01-21 | 1984-01-30 | Completed | 100% | $4.47 | $8.94 | 100.01% | Stop | |
| 1981-03-19 | 1982-01-21 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.07 | 6.58% | Interest Income | |
| 1981-03-17 | 1981-03-19 | Completed | 100% | $4.42 | $4.43 | 0.14% | Signal | |
| 1981-02-23 | 1981-03-17 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1980-08-04 | 1981-02-23 | Completed | 100% | $4.27 | $4.14 | -3.23% | Stop | |
| 1979-08-03 | 1980-08-04 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.08 | 7.86% | Interest Income | |
| 1978-12-08 | 1979-08-03 | Completed | 100% | $4.20 | $4.33 | 2.94% | Signal | |
| 1978-11-15 | 1978-12-08 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1978-04-24 | 1978-11-15 | Completed | 100% | $3.75 | $3.96 | 5.62% | Stop | |
| 1978-03-17 | 1978-04-24 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.75% | Interest Income | |
| 1977-12-23 | 1978-03-17 | Completed | 100% | $3.90 | $3.59 | -8.11% | Signal | |
| 1977-10-18 | 1977-12-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.42% | Interest Income | |
| 1977-08-23 | 1977-10-18 | Completed | 100% | $3.92 | $3.74 | -4.66% | Signal | |
| 1977-05-23 | 1977-08-23 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.90% | Interest Income | |
| 1975-11-18 | 1977-05-23 | Completed | 100% | $3.07 | $3.57 | 16.46% | Signal | |
| 1975-09-03 | 1975-11-18 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.02 | 1.63% | Interest Income | |
| 1975-08-19 | 1975-09-03 | Completed | 100% | $2.46 | $2.45 | -0.46% | Signal | |
| 1975-07-28 | 1975-08-19 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1975-03-11 | 1975-07-28 | Completed | 100% | $2.92 | $2.55 | -12.64% | Stop | |
| 1973-06-21 | 1975-03-11 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.14 | 13.86% | Interest Income | |
| 1973-06-14 | 1973-06-21 | Completed | 100% | $4.19 | $4.07 | -2.94% | Signal | |
| 1973-05-22 | 1973-06-14 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1973-01-05 | 1973-05-22 | Completed | 100% | $4.19 | $3.97 | -5.31% | Stop | |
| 1972-11-21 | 1973-01-05 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.87% | Interest Income | |
| 1972-11-10 | 1972-11-21 | Completed | 100% | $3.77 | $3.91 | 3.65% | Signal | |
| 1972-10-18 | 1972-11-10 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.48% | Interest Income | |
| 1972-03-13 | 1972-10-18 | Completed | 100% | $3.79 | $3.78 | -0.23% | Stop | |
| 1972-03-09 | 1972-03-13 | Interest (CASH) | 100% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |