QQQM
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-07-16
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -19.7% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -22.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 22.2%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 28.6%. The strategy executed 12 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
QQQM Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 26.89% | 27.36% | 16.39% | 15.34% | 22.25% | 28.63% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.03 | 0.63 | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.66% | -11.96% | -19.67% | -35.04% | -19.67% | -22.70% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 69.9% | 100.0% | 92.7% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open or Mark-to-Market exit denotes an active position (either in the primary asset or a cash/yield sleeve) valued at the current price for reporting purposes. Interest entries record yield accrued from cash or cash alternatives (like BIL) during out-of-market defensive periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔒 Active Positions & Recent Execution Signals Hidden Trading on delayed data carries high execution risk. Current allocations, pending next-day rebalances, and active execution signals (last 14 days) require a Premium subscription. Upgrade to Premium to Unlock | ||||||||
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-10 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-07-08 | 2026-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $226.63 | $247.73 | 9.26% | Signal | |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-09-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-08-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $197.73 | $236.90 | 19.75% | Signal | |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $190.69 | $179.27 | -6.03% | Stop | |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $190.69 | $179.15 | -6.10% | Signal | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.03 | $179.15 | 57.03% | Stop | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $193.87 | $192.83 | -0.58% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $193.87 | $192.83 | -0.58% | Stop | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-12-21 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $165.01 | $177.96 | 7.79% | Stop | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.03 | $177.96 | 55.99% | Stop | |
| 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income | |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.03 | $152.45 | 33.63% | Signal | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-12 | 2022-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $105.82 | $109.24 | 3.18% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-07 | 2022-10-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $110.37 | $111.00 | 0.52% | Signal | |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-10-12 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income | |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-10-07 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income | |