QQQM Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
TREND FOLLOWING PERFORMANCE HISTORY
2026-05-31
Executive Summary
The quantitative backtest for QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF) using the Excess Return MMA CA* strategy in a Investing context demonstrated its primary role in risk mitigation, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -19.6% (compared to the benchmark's drawdown of -22.7%). Over the evaluated period, this protective approach generated a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24.8%, compared to a Buy-and-Hold benchmark return of 31.4%. The strategy executed 12 total trades.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
* Excess Return MMA CA: Multi-Moving Average (Triple-Band) model utilizing sophisticated long/short cross durations optimized against volatility, with a month-end dynamic Cash Alternative sleeve rotation.
📊 Mathematical Model
Excess Return MMA
Advanced Ensemble: Uses multiple signal layers for maximum trend stability and noise reduction.
Excess Return MMA CA Active
Advanced Dynamic Sleeve: MMA ensemble signals on the primary asset combined with a momentum-based cash alternative ETF rotation.
Excess Return SMA
Standard Signal: Classical quantitative trend following optimized for reliable directionality.
Moving Average (50/200)
Moving Average: The baseline 50/200-day crossover model used by technical analysts worldwide.
QQQM Quality Metrics & KPI Summary
| Metric | 1Y | 5Y | Full History | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | Strategy | B&H | |
| CAGR | 39.65% | 42.77% | 17.54% | 18.09% | 24.78% | 31.36% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.27 | 2.25 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| Max Drawdown | -9.64% | -11.96% | -19.59% | -35.04% | -19.59% | -22.70% |
| % Time Invested | 100.0% | 100.0% | 67.3% | 100.0% | 92.5% | 100.0% |
| Trades / Year | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
Cumulative Growth Performance
Return Distribution Analysis
Trade History
This log shows every signal-driven transition. Completed trades reflect standard market cycles. An Open / Mark-to-Market exit denotes a position currently held active, valued at the latest price. Interest entries record cash yields accrued during out-of-market periods.
| Entry Date | Exit Date | Type | Allocation | Entry Price | Exit Price | Net Return % | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $251.92 | $303.96 | 20.66% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-09-08 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $237.18 | $303.96 | 28.16% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2025-04-29 | Open | Open | 33.33% | $192.65 | $303.96 | 57.78% | Mark-to-Market |
| 2026-03-17 | 2026-04-10 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.23% | Interest Income |
| 2025-07-08 | 2026-03-17 | Completed | 33.33% | $226.89 | $248.02 | 9.31% | Signal |
| 2025-08-14 | 2025-09-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.24% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-01 | 2025-08-14 | Completed | 33.33% | $197.96 | $237.17 | 19.81% | Signal |
| 2025-06-03 | 2025-07-08 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.56% | Interest Income |
| 2025-05-02 | 2025-06-02 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-08 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 1.21% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-01 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.15% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-04 | 2025-04-29 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.12% | Interest Income |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-08 | Completed | 33.33% | $190.91 | $179.48 | -5.99% | Stop |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $190.91 | $179.35 | -6.05% | Signal |
| 2023-01-18 | 2025-04-04 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.16 | $179.35 | 57.11% | Stop |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income |
| 2025-03-11 | 2025-04-02 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.29% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $194.09 | $193.06 | -0.53% | Stop |
| 2024-08-28 | 2025-03-11 | Completed | 33.33% | $194.09 | $193.06 | -0.53% | Stop |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2024-08-06 | 2024-08-28 | Interest (SHV) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.32% | Interest Income |
| 2023-12-21 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $165.20 | $178.17 | 7.85% | Stop |
| 2023-01-18 | 2024-08-06 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.16 | $178.17 | 56.07% | Stop |
| 2023-11-13 | 2023-12-21 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.58% | Interest Income |
| 2023-01-18 | 2023-11-13 | Completed | 33.33% | $114.16 | $152.63 | 33.70% | Signal |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-12-02 | 2023-01-18 | Interest (FLOT) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.01 | 0.86% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.33% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.42% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-12-01 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.49% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-12 | 2022-10-28 | Completed | 33.33% | $105.94 | $109.36 | 3.23% | Signal |
| 2022-10-07 | 2022-10-18 | Completed | 33.33% | $110.50 | $111.13 | 0.57% | Signal |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-10-12 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.03% | Interest Income |
| 2022-10-05 | 2022-10-07 | Interest (BIL) | 33.33% | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0.02% | Interest Income |